In a tweet that reportedly took law enforcement by surprise, President Donald Trump disclosed that “next week” a national round up of undocumented persons would be launched. Obviously, ICE prefers not to inform potential arrestees that they are coming. Recently, it was reported that intelligence officials withheld details of their operations against Russia in fear that Trump might disclose the operation or compromise its purpose.
Trump tweeted Monday night that “Next week ICE will begin the process of removing the millions of illegal aliens who have illicitly found their way into the United States. They will be removed as fast as they come in.”
In the past, the Trump Administration has charged that mayors (like the one in Oakland) are obstructing enforcement by telling people in advance of enforcement sweeps by ICE.
With over 11 million undocumented persons, it is highly unlikely that full-scale deportations would be able to remove a sizable percentage. ICE is currently averaging only around 7,000 deportations a month. However, regardless of the likely success, there is something odd about telling potential deportees that sweeps will be launched last week. Even if the President waited just after the first few days of sweeps (after which the word would have gotten out), ICE would have been in a better position.
I remain skeptical, as I discussed in a recent column, that serious deterrence can’t be established without showing equal vigor in prosecuting large-scale employers of undocumented workers. That is even more unlikely when workers and employers are told in advance of a new enforcement push.
ARE THERE REALLY 22 MILLION ‘ILLEGALS’ IN THE COUNTRY?
THIS CONSERVATIVE-FRIENDLY SOURCE SAYS ‘NO’
A new article published in the academic journal PLOS One argues that the size of the illegal immigrant population in the United States has been grossly underestimated by prior research. The authors make assumptions about cumulative inflows and outflows since 1990 and arrive at a “conservative” estimate of 16.7 million illegal immigrants in 2016 and an average estimate of 22.1 million — 50 to 100 percent larger than other estimates.
The findings are unsupportable. Accepting that there are 22 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. also requires accepting that every Census Bureau survey missed huge numbers of people and that most administrative data from the federal government is woefully incomplete. There is no body of research that corroborates such a claim.
Most prior research subtracts the legal immigrant population, based on administrative data, from the total foreign-born identified in Census surveys. The difference represents the number of illegal immigrants, which is then adjusted upward to reflect undercount. Using this method, most researchers find that 10 to 11 million illegal immigrants are included in Census Bureau surveys, with perhaps one million missed based on other research. But if the new study is correct, then the Census Bureau is missing another 11 million illegal immigrants, something that would have obvious impacts in other datasets and in the real world.
“No matter how carefully a theoretical model may seem to be calibrated, it is not useful unless it is consistent with the real world,” said Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research. “It is incumbent upon the authors to explain how their estimate can be reconciled with other data. It seems extremely unlikely that the Census Bureau, the Department of Education, and other records of vital statistics miss so many people year after year.”
Specific examples:
When the Census Bureau recanvassed a subset of the population after the 2000 and 2010 censuses, they found a miss rate of roughly 1 percent. If the new study’s illegal estimates are correct, then we would expect to see an undercount two or three times larger than what the Bureau estimated.
About 4 million women in the American Community Survey (ACS) each year reported they had a child in the prior year. This nearly matches the number of births reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NSHC) based on birth certificates, which suggests the ACS is not missing large numbers of mothers. If there were 11 million more illegal immigrants in the country, then NSHC data would need to show roughly 300,000 more births, which it does not.
Looking at births specifically to immigrants in a forthcoming report, the Center compared ACS and NSHC data in detail and found that the ACS may understate births to immigrant by just 5 percent. We would expect to see a far greater undercount if the ACS missed 11 million illegal immigrants.
In 2014 the count of public school students in the ACS differed from Department of Education figures by only 3 percent, which is partly explained by the differences in data collection rather than undercount. But, if there were 11 million illegal immigrants missed by the ACS, roughly 1 one million would have to be enrolled in school, implying a large difference between the ACS and DOE figures that does not exist.
On the issue of counting illegal immigrants, the Center for Immigration Studies agrees with the Migration Policy Institute’s critique of the new paper: “People leave footprints” and millions of illegal immigrants cannot simply be “hidden” from demographic profiles.
Full Article from: “New Estimates Of 22 Million Illegal Immigrants Is Not Plausible”
Center For Immigration Studies, 9/22/18
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
I had never heard of this think tank before so I looked them up in Wikipedia. It turns out the Center For Immigration Studies is widely thought of as a pro-Trump, anti-immigrant group. in fact, The Southern Poverty Law Center classifies them as a “hate group”. Nevertheless their reasoning in this study strikes me as fairly credible. “People leave footprints”, as they say in that last paragraph.
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY TOTALLY REJECTS 22 MILLION NUMBER
The Princeton report linked below takes note of the study above. It notes that the Center For Immigration Studies is generally hostile to immigration. Yet is supports the findings of their study. Princeton also notes that Pew Research is considered the gold standard on these numbers. Pew has never come close to a 22 million estimate.
https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2018/9/26/experts-swiftly-reject-22-million-illegals-count
P.H.: ring, ring911, what’s your emergency?
Caller: A whole bunch of people broke into my house and they are stealing all my stuff and threatening my family’s safety.
P.H: How many are in your house illegally?
Caller: I have no idea, but a lot.
P.H: Sir, you’ll need to call us back when you have a provable number; until then, we don’t see this as an emergency. click
Olly, if you’re concerned about getting good numbers, then Trump’s plan to include the citizenship question on census forms is the worst idea ever. We’ll have no clue how many aliens are here if every one of them shuns the census forms. We won’t even get good estimates.
Current PH -so, if we ask directly for immigration status, it’s wrong, because all of the illegal aliens currently on the census won’t answer it at all? I suppose that could happen. Or they could still lie. But one of the problems with including everyone on the census, rather than differentiating out citizens from legal and illegal residents is that the representation in Congress is misapportioned. If those people don’t come forward, then they were never supposed to count towards Congressional representation anyway.
Getting real counts on illegal immigrants is difficult be cause they are, by definition, criminals. PC or not, they broke federal immigration law to come here. Many are engaging in further law breaking, like identity theft. So, to count them, you have to identify them.
Census info is not given to ICE, in order to help get an accurate count, but there will be those who won’t trust the government to keep it confidential. It is indeed a difficult problem.
The only accurate count, that I know of, is to count deportations, and re-deportations, court cases, illegal drivers licenses in CA and NY, free healthcare recipients for illegals in CA, and Dreamer applications, and perhaps keep track of illegal alien family members on Dreamer applications. But for the rest of illegals who have not been in contact with the system??? Another problem is that some of these metrics are in blue states, which resist counting them.
It’s like trying to keep track of car thieves who you know are there, but haven’t been caught by the system yet.
More BS from Karen
“Undocumented Immigrants and Crime?
It’s a widely held perception, but a new analysis finds no evidence to support it.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/upshot/illegal-immigration-crime-rates-research.html
Thanks, Anon.
If one sneaks into the country to secure employment, they don’t want to muck things up by getting busted for a crime. That doesn’t mean all illegals are saintly. But those who came for employment generally want to stay off law enforcement’s radar.
PH – the methodology behind that claim was fatally flawed. In actuality, the majority of illegal aliens commit crimes such as identity theft in order to navigate the system.
H1B visa holders are extremely law abiding. The visa workers I used to work with were some of the most law abiding people you’d ever meet. One of the ways the figures were skewed was with lumping them in.
Debunked.
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/326272-most-illegal-aliens-routinely-commit-felonies
In addition to the routine identity theft, there were hit and runs. Illegal aliens were uninsured. If you got into an accident with one, you were screwed. Hit and runs became such a problem that CA started issuing drivers licenses and lower cost insurance to illegals than what citizens and legal residents had to carry, with some success. In addition, there were common shakedown scams, such as when an illegal driving a car in front would suddenly slam on the brakes to cause an accident. Hitting someone who had stopped was an automatic at-fault. The driver would claim injuries, etc. Staged car accidents and insurance fraud. Again, it wasn’t only the illegals doing it, but some of the criminal rings were illegal.
In addition, there are the sex traffickers. Tenencingo is the sex trafficking capital of the world. Many of the sex trafficking rings are run by illegal aliens.
Karen sites an opinion piece by an anti immigration activist who bases his argument on the felonious use of false IDs. Well, yeah, scary stuff, but the kind of crime her leader pumps up crowds with and which she promotes is the kind of crime on which immigrants – legal and illegal – commit less frequently than native born Americans. If she doesn’t know this she should pick another topic.
By the way, in another post she falsely claims that Democrats favor open borders. That’s an obvious and repeated lie from her cult leader who – it should be noted – is failing in his job of protecting our southern borders. By all measures conditions have worsened there and he has done nothing effective about it, nor does he have a plan or exhibited the leadership to advance one.
I promote no crime.
Libel.
Democrats have fought border security tooth and nail. To blame anyone else for the crisis at the border is not honest. One party has fought the wall, called to abolish ICE, fought removing illegals from voting rolls, made sanctuary cities, protected dangerous, violent felons from deportation, gave free healthcare and drivers licenses to illegals, fought even momentary housing in facilities to be processed as “concentration camps” – a slap in the face to Holocaust survivors, when children are separated from adults to find out which are parents, and which child rapists they fought that too, they support the abuse of the asylum system, they blamed BP when they responded to illegals throwing rocks at their heads with non lethal tear gas, they support the caravan invasions, scholarships and in state tuition for illegals, Section 8 housing for illegals, they were enraged when Trump called MS-13, whose motto is “rape, kill” animals,…the list goes on and on. I will grant you that the Democratic Party claims it is against open borders, but it clearly opposes any and all means to actually secure the border. Anyone and everyone who presents themselves to the border should be released into the country, clogging up the courts for years. By the time it’s their turn to be deported 90% (according to BP interview) skip the deportation hearing. Then, the argument becomes, well, they did come here illegally but they’ve established themselves here for years so it’s now inhumane to deport them. That changes Border Patrol from a mission to secure our border, to merely the people at the gate of an amusement park who merely process all the visitors in single file. Their policies create an open border and an intense lure for illegal immigration, and it supports a multi-billion dollar human smuggling industry for the cartels, the very drivers of much of the violence, crime, and corruption in the region.
Since Anonymous claims to know Anon’s gender, does that mean that L4D, Jan F, Anon, Anon 1, Anonymous are all sock puppets of the same person banned for repeated violations of the civility code? It is hard to tell some of the sock puppets apart.
Karen – purposefully or not – writes as though I accused her of promoting crime. My intent – clear in context I believe, but if not I correct it here – is that Karen promotes the same kind of misinformation on immigrants and crime as her leader. As far as I know she does not promote crime.
I have stated several times that I am an adult male, have mentioned even more times my wife, and work in a traditionally male business as a builder. I am an adult man, not that there is anything wrong with that.
“Karen – purposefully or not – writes as though I accused her of promoting crime.”
Anon said – “Karen sites an opinion piece by an anti immigration activist who bases his argument on the felonious use of false IDs. Well, yeah, scary stuff, but the kind of crime her leader pumps up crowds with and which she promotes is the kind of crime on which immigrants – legal and illegal – commit less frequently than native born Americans.”
It was Anonymous who said that Anon was a male, 3rd person, which is why I asked for clarification on all the sock puppets.
“By the way, in another post she falsely claims that Democrats favor open borders.” In a series of posts, I said the Democratic Party claims to not favor open borders, but it fights border security, and creates the following inducements to illegal immigration:
1. Sanctuary cities, in which even violent felons are protected from deportation
2. Fight purging voter rolls of illegal aliens
3. Free drivers licenses to illegal aliens in CA
4. Offered lower cost and lower coverage auto insurance to illegals in CA than is required by citizens and legal residents
5. Free health care for illegal aliens in CA, on the table to be expanded
6. scholarships to illegal aliens
7. favor catch and release at the border. Court backlogs are years long. 90% skip deportation hearings. Then the argument becomes it’s not fair to deport them because they’ve been here for years.
8. Favor keeping kids with the adults they traveled with, and oppose separating them to weed out pedophiles and sex traffickers
9. Fight the wall as immoral. To claim a wall is immoral means that reducing illegal immigration is immoral.
10. Suspend loitering laws to allow dayworkers to congregate on street corners, where they work for cash without paying taxes
11. Section 8 housing for illegal aliens
12. Claim that illegal immigration is necessary to do the dirty jobs and pick crops (eerily familiar Democratic pro-slavery arguments)
13. Refer to the deportation of illegal immigrations under deportation orders to be “terrorism”, or wrong, or immoral, or racist
14. Refer to Border Patrol temporary holding facilities as “concentration camps”
15. Fight any effort to protect our asylum process from abuse
16. Fight enforcing an international rule on the fist safe country, meaning that asylum will not be granted if seekers passed through safe countries to get here and demanded the US over all other options available.
17. Claim that opposing illegal immigration is racist or anti-immigrant or fascist, clearly showing they support illegal immigration
The list goes on, but 17 should be enough to prove the point that no matter what Democrats say, they are the party clearly in favor of illegal immigration.
Want more illegal immigration? Vote Democrat. And then break the news to the poor in your community that their support dollars just got stretched thinner.
Karen, you’re ASSUMING illegal immigrants reside mainly in so-called Blue States. And like a good Trumper, you want to punish the Blue States for having Sanctuary Cities. ..You couldn’t be more ignorant..!
A large portion of undocumented immigrants reside in Texas and Arizona, two staunchly Red States. In fact I read just last week that Houston has more undocumented immigrants per capita than even Los Angeles. Which isn’t really surprising. And one can figure that Dallas, San Antonio and El Paso have large ratios as well.
But undocumented immigrants can also be found in populous red states like Georgia and North Carolina. And big Purple States like Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania have large populations.
So again this idea that we need to punish the Blue States by excluding aliens from census counts is absolutely stupid. Such an undercount would screw a number of states all around the country. It’s just stupid, stupid stupid!!!
Did I say that illegal aliens didn’t live in TX or AZ? Why, no, I didn’t. So you are vigorously arguing with a position I haven’t made.
CA does have a massive illegal alien population, however.
It is not “punishing” blue states by removing illegal aliens from the census. It is following the law. It is also pointing out a valid reason for why Democrats oppose citizenship questions on the census. Haven’t you heard Dems talking about how unfair it would be for them to lose seats, arguing that it’s not fair to only count citizens? Dems have literally been talking about this very reason.
It is Democrats, not Republicans, who fight removing illegal aliens from the voter rolls, or who fight the census question, listing the districting reason. You might not like it, but it’s reality. And I live in Reality Land.
So, are they “just stupid, stupid, stupid?” Your words, not mine.
Quick article on the staged accident capital of the country, Los Angeles:
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-staged-car-accidents-insurance-fraud-rise-in-la-20140522-story.html
Karen, hundreds of professionals in a variety of fields want to know, as close as possible, the populations of cities, counties and states.
McDonalds, for instance, doesn’t honestly care of ‘X’ percentage of a city’s population is composed of ‘illegals’. The Centers For Disease Control only cares about actual numbers. School systems need accurate counts. Water & Power providers need to know how many people inhabit communities. Streets & Sanitation needs real numbers to work with.
The list goes on and on; decision makers in government and private sectors need actual numbers to factor in their plans. An administration determined to undercount people is clearly at war with science. And a professional census count is a scientific endeavor.
We can’t have asterisks next to census figures noting that counts could be off by “X’ percent. That would look like our government is totally incompetent. And Republicans actually think it’s smart to further that impression. Because it validates their ambitions for privatizing government.
That’s what this comes down to. If the U.S. Census count is off by ‘X’ percent, corporate and academic alliances will seek to conduct ‘private’ census counts. And they won’t be concerned with ‘illegal aliens’. But it would make a lot more sense to let the U.S. Census Bureau get it right the first time.
Peter – so you are saying that we should not try to find out how many illegal aliens are in the country, because doing so would lead to people not answering it at all, and then we wouldn’t have accurate population counts vital for our country to survive?
I wonder how many illegal aliens don’t fill out the census now, not wanting to be counted, or having their name and address recorded anywhere.
Was this an existential problem when the question was on the census before? Is it a problem if corporations conduct private census surveys, and would they be in addition to the mailers and telemarketing calls we already get?
I’ll grant you that some illegal aliens won’t fill out the census if asked immigration status. Others will lie. Some illegals likely haven’t been filling it out already. My question is if a group of criminals won’t cooperate with the census, what the reaction should be. And, yes, they are criminals of federal law. They felt entitled to break the law, often steal someone’s identity, and take advantage of our benefits system, draining resources away from our existing poor and the indigent on the streets. It’s no different than someone who cheated on their tax returns, or who got paid under the table for tax evasion, or any number of non violent crimes. They don’t get a pass because “they wanted a better life.” Why should we decide that the law does not apply to a set of criminals numbering anywhere from 12 to 23 million people, and how is that fair to anyone who follows the law? How is it fair to anyone whose identity was stolen? The victims of staged car accidents? How about the business owners who lost an entire industry and livelihood because they could not compete with the cash under the table and zero benefits paid to illegal alien crews? Entire companies folded, to be replaced by illegals who get zero of the benefits people voted for. How far is the ripple effect that 12-23 million people have had?
OK, how the hell would I know. There’s a lot, for sure. LOL
Kurtz – were you in SoCal the day they had that “strike” for illegal aliens? Many of them stayed home to prove to us citizens how vital they are to our economy.
It was the easiest freeway driving in recent memory. I was shocked at the improvement in traffic congestion.
Current PH, there are no exact figures of illegal immigration, because the information is not tracked. Births to immigrants, as cited in your article, are not tracked. I was not asked my immigration or citizenship status in the hospital when I delivered my child. It is difficult to get an admission of illegal activity from people. All efforts to get any real data, such as returning the citizenship question to the census, are fought by Democrats, unfortunately. Representation is determined by the number of citizens. The same rules against foreign interference in our government also preclude illegal immigrants from being represented in our government. Therefore, high illegal immigrant states would likely lose a few seats if the population of illegals were accurately deducted.
In any case, all we have are estimates. It is difficult to determine the quality of the estimate because, again, we have no accurate data by which to judge the estimates.
I have heard estimates range from 12 million to 25 million. It’s safe to say that there are millions of illegal aliens, many of whom engage in criminal activity such as identity theft. By stealing someone’s identity, their activities are also not attributed to an illegal immigrant.
This is an enormous problem. We really do need to shut down illegal immigration so that our country has a say over whom we invite in as a worker, resident, or naturalized citizen. For instance, it is responsible to require health screenings, criminal background checks, and reject violent criminals. We should also adjust the flow of immigration to match the infrastructure and needs of our economy. The needs of citizens and legal residents have to come first.
But it’s a good way to get them out of hiding and running around.
When in worry, when in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout.
None of the left has yet learned he never sets up an ambush without including not only the seeming targets but the press the leftish politicians.
Now where o where would ICE look to sweep? A great place to start is their place of employment. Perhaps this tweet is a shot across the bow of the employers.
They could start in big cities but that is exactly where the bulk of the open borders traitors live. California for example is full up with them even in government. Probably this would fire up “the resistance” and possibly backfire on Trump at least to some degree. I hate to say it but I call BS on this Trumpian prediction. I guess next week we will know or not.
And removing all these people does not happen without due process. Probably that is wise. But due process does not move quickly.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-immigration-court-backlog-worsens-20190221-story.html
My guess is this was timed for today’s rally. It will accomplish at least 2 things: 1. fire up his base. 2. fire up the resistance. The response by both will be fodder for both during the 2020 campaign season.
His Tweet would have been more effective if he’d said, after the fact, that ICE had detained X number of illegal aliens under deportation orders who had absconded. After. Not before. And clarified that they were all illegal aliens under removal orders.
Trump really needs a similar Tweet department as the dozens who work in communications and speechwriting.
His Tweet would have been more effective if…
It was effective for what I guessed it was timed for.
An old article, but:
Got A Problem? Blame It On Illegal Immigrants
TIM MCDONNELL
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/06/got-problem-blame-it-illegal-immigrants/
Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) took some heat this weekend for blaming wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico on illegal immigrants. McCain has since recanted (sort of), claiming that he was merely repeating what an unnamed Forest Service official told him in a briefing.
McCain’s comments are just the latest example of our country’s habit of blaming all manner of problems on immigrants. Let’s take a look at a few recent instances of illegal immigrants becoming scapegoats for… well, you name it:
Car Accidents: Thank Arizona’s senior senator for this one, too. McCain told Bill O’Reilly (who else?) that Arizona’s highways were plagued by illegal immigrants who intentionally crash into other drivers. No word on how doing so could possibly be to their benefit.
Swine Flu: Remember this? While everyone was running around buying face masks and speculating on Swine Flu’s origin, CNN’s Jack Cafferty suggested that illegal immigrants—not just anyone traveling from Mexico—might be at fault.
The Mortgage Crisis: Conservative pundit Michelle Malkin argued that banks specifically targeted illegal immigrants for shady home loans, and when they couldn’t pay up… well, you know what happened.
America’s Drug Problem: The majority of illegal immigrants coming from Mexico are “drug mules,” according to Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.
Litter: Some officials think border crossers need to brush up on their “Leave No Trace” etiquette.
California’s Budget Deficit: Forget about mismanagement and overspending: some argue that California ran out of money because of illegal immigrants, who used services like hospitals and schools without paying for them. (Actually, many undocumented immigrants pay taxes.) Immigrants had a friend in the Governator, though, who said they were an “easy scapegoat” and not the real source of the problem.
Bad Traffic: The American Immigration Control Foundation ran ads accusing immigrants (illegal and otherwise) of worsening gridlock and pushing urban sprawl.
Various Episodes of Violence: Something scary happened in your neighborhood and you can’t find the criminal? No problem! It was probably illegal immigrants (this rule applies internationally, too).
Immigrants must be exhausted after leaving their foreclosed homes in pot-laden cars, crashing in standstill traffic on their way to the ER, hacking and wheezing, and then tossing their used Kleenex out the window!
________________
“Blame It On Illegal Immigrants” and Democrats…, because it’s easier than actually taking responsibility…
See the article posted above about Los Angeles being the staged auto accident capital of the country. You should also check out all the plastic garbage all along the illegal immigration trail, in ephemeral streambeds. It’s as bad as a homeless encampment, with a Democratic Party cause the common denominator for both. Meanwhile, CA bans straws. Also, during the illegal immigrant strike in CA, the improvement in traffic was lovely. There are a significant number of illegal immigrants living in CA. Those who drive are out there on the freeways, when they do not have the right to be here, having line jumped ahead of everyone else waiting their turn in the legal immigration line. It might not sound PC, but literally any human being on the road who is an illegal alien is contributing to gridlock, because they are not supposed to be here.
The majority of immigrants are not mules, but it is an established fact that since the cartels run the illegal immigrant human smuggling, they often have them mule drugs or guns or trafficked women for them. That doesn’t mean that the majority of people in a group do it, but there is often at least one or two being used as a mule.
Source: The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/30/world/smuggling-illegal-immigration-costs.html
“Even with his family’s payment, he slept amid filth and vermin. He watched guides abandon some migrants who could not keep up, and guards prod others to become drug mules. Sometimes the smugglers identified him by a numeric code, other times by an assumed name. But as often as not, they simply called him “the package,” to be moved for profit like an illicit good.”
The man goes on to say that no matter how many walls go up, people’s desire for a better life, and apparently their entitlement to take it, will be stronger. There is a strong feeling that a country has no right to say who, when, or how many. If you want it, take it. Who cares how it affects American citizens and the legal residents? This is why immigration security has to be ramped up. It’s not about asylum. It’s about wanting to skip the legal immigration system and take what you want, and let others pay the cost. It really is too bad that they didn’t have such an intense desire to improve their own countries. Our founders came together and fought a war to end the tyranny over their colony, making it a country. Fractured dissatisfaction leading to exodus fixes nothing in the origin countries. We have learned the US cannot nation build. We cannot export our system to those unwilling to adopt it.
We cannot house 7 billion people here. There is not enough room. At some point, people will have to fix their countries. It’s a terrible, frightening solution, to square off against the crime, corruption, and bad policies that plowed countries into the ground. Change has got to come from within, under a united people fighting not only for a better life, but for individual freedom. Any socialist can promise a better life, but you won’t get it without freedom, of which capitalism is an inherent part.
1600 buses carrying 60 people per bus gets rid of 96000 illegals per cycle. If we deport the estimated 22,000,000 law breakers it will take 230 cycles which will need about 3 years considering distance and resettling time. I can live with that. I’d make the offending employers foot the bill and disgorge their illegal profits.
Mespo,
Some of these Deep Staters, ( Dims/Rinos), get on their dying media outlets & claim there is no way the US govt can deport all these Illegal bast*rds. That’s a Damn Lie & easily proven as such.
I’m sure you likely already know that President Ike in 1954, one of the best in my lifetime, implemented “Operation Wetback”.
In something like one year the US govt roundup & ship back about 1 million, but further it was estimated that another 9 million left on their own as the could read the writing on the wall. It Worked!
If Trump wasn’t such a Girl Man he’d call it “Operation Wetback 2.0 & say to them, the illegals, they are disgracing all those who don’t break the law & come here legally & throw his damed foot down, pull some of troops from W. Europe, S Korea & elsewhere & place them on the borders with authorization, for the use of Tear gas, Pepper Balls etc… & even f needed live rounds & repel all these Invaders!
Mespo, this is fantasy! Such an effort would require a ‘Political Army’. That means an army politically vetted for the mission. We don’t have such an army. We don’t have sufficient courts or holding centers to even approach those kind of numbers. What’s more, 22,000,000 is fiction in itself.
i think it’s between 12 and 22 based on the report that you asked for in the other place and I provided, some guy from yale
i would agree that deporting that entire number is not feasible. I posted on that but it got swallowed up. in short:
a) USCIS does not have the facilities or staff to do much more than what they do now. Need to massively increase all budgetary layouts espeically for immigration judges just to handle what’s in the tube already.
To get a one third level increase in removals? who konws how much more that would cost. The immigration courts are running years behind. YEARS
b) the Army is prohibited from assisting in domestic roundups by Posse comitatus law.
c) the armed forces have disproportionate levels of latino enlisted who would be of questionable loyalty to participate in mass roundups even if they were not illegal.
d) they are not trained for this.
e) given the number of antiamerican saboteurs and open borders fanatics proven to exist in the federal judiciary press and even supposedly 1/4 of the population, it would require civil war basically
f) some people are ready for civil war but they are generally not well integrated into society and government so they are of negligible value to a government sponsored mass removal program. the rich people worried about civil war plan on escaping to New Zealand. Seriously!
__________
all that being said, if something major like a big climate change flooding coastal areas happened that impelled a mass stampede for the border, larger than the current mess, the social and political conditions all could change very, very quickly.
we might even see a situation where even the illegal immigrants who are here already, favor more border enforcement, because they realize a mass tipping point could come with a suffciently large invasion across the southern border.
___________
Trump will be gone in 1 year or 5. But, in a decade after him, I think climate change and the incompetence of public officials worldwide in dealing adapting to it, combined with teeming third world populations, will create a “Camp of Saints” scenario, one of a massive invasion of “the West” by third world refugees, bigger than anything seen before by far. That will actually trigger a violent reaction from the “West” as it sees a certain vigor rekindled as the end approaches much more faster. You will remember when I told you, eventually border enforcement either here or in Europe, and possibly north Asia too, will eventually involve machine gun nests firing on refugees.
_________________–
We will probably be lucky if a world wide plague or famine or nuclear war doesn’t wipe us all out in 20 years. Then the AGI will take over and we’ll all be slaves anyways. it should be exciting to watch one way or another, at least!
i am not a Deep Stater. I have thought about the feasibility of mass deportations for years, in my own humble way, without any emotional attachment to the whatifs. I conclude without any affection for illegal immigrants whatosever, that under current social and political conditions, mass deportations are practicably impossible.
I didn’t think this when Trump was elected, but 2 and half years has exposed the deep level of sabotage of our national security and border enforcement which persists in the federal judiciary, to say nothing of mass media and universities, and most important of all, those who hold the Purse Strings, Congress.
That doesn’t mean we need to quit or embrace open borders. but, just be realistic and see that this is a long haul which will probably end up in a) demographic replacement of whites as minorities in larger and larger numbers of communities b) increasing amount of foreign borns versus natives and c) further mass invasions based on cross border communication and the profitability of human smuggling operations and d) push factors like environmental degradation and overpopulation of the third world.
What that means is, if you are a native, you better learn to think like one, and thus it also means, if you are a white native, you better look for allies in the other nonwhite native populations because you’re probably going to need them.
The Indians went through this crucible of invasion and demographic and national replacement and failed. We’re their successors. Will we fail too?
It may require a lot of facile thinking. For example, do we really want to criticize efforts to spread contraception in the third world? I don’t. That’s crazy. But I still hear some Republicans talking that way a lot.
one of the silver linings of womens rights etc etc etc, is that it’s spreading like a contagion to the non-western world. And usually, once it hits, it lowers population growth like a hot knife cutting through butter. I’m all for exporting women’s rights to certain equatorial nations, come to think of it.
The same thing is sometimes true of foreign development programs. Better their schiessholes get fixed up and they stay home, than come here. I can fork over some taxes for that kind of thing if it works.
Kurtz, we’re in agreement on these 3 points:
b) the Army is prohibited from assisting in domestic roundups by Posse comitatus law.
c) the armed forces have disproportionate levels of latino enlisted who would be of questionable loyalty to participate in mass roundups even if they were not illegal.
d) they are not trained for this.
FYI – USCIS has little to zero involvement with the enforcement of Immigration Law. USCIS is the benefit side of immigration. They approve applications (usually with very little investigation/verification of the applications). They can and on occasion do refer cases to ICE and once in a while issue a Notice to Appear (usually by mail). There are zero law enforcement officers in USCIS. They have no powers of arrest.
You probably shouldn’t make numerous comments on a subject that you are not well versed in.
Good!
Don’t tip off those who have broken the law that they will be deported, or they’ll just run.
Illegal immigration is wrong. Make the wrong thing hard, and the right thing easier. The message needs to be clearly, firmly, sent, that there is no point to trying to immigrate here illegally. It’s better to go through the legal system.
South Americans and people from around the world pay over $13,000 to drug cartels in order to line jump, rather than a few hundred to go through the legal system, which takes longer. Children are a passport to skip our legal immigration process. Over 90% of those whose asylum cases have been denied skip out on deportation hearings. This lures people to bring vulnerable children onto the trail here, where, according to Huffpo a few years ago, over 85% of women and girls get raped.
However, Democrats keep sending the clear message that it’s a free for all for illegal immigration – free healthcare, drivers licenses, cheaper auto insurance in CA than legal residents and citizens have to get, subsidized housing, Section 8, paid cash under the table with zero taxes taken out, qualifying them for tax rebates from the government, scholarships, job drives, loitering laws do not apply to dayworker sites, activists…Heck, the life of a poor illegal alien is far and away better than their life back in their home country. What is there to lose?
Now, if it were me, this is how I would handle illegal immigration:
1. Secure border with a combination of physical barriers, upgrade dilapidated or ineffective existing piecemeal barriers, increase patrols, upgrade technology, use infrared drones, and turn people away.
2. Negotiate with Mexico to build medical centers to treat illegal aliens on their side of the border for the illnesses, heatstroke, and other health issues commonly encountered, rather than expecting our Border Patrol to operate as thousands of ERs for people near death. Citizens wait for hours to see a doctor in an ER. People are showing up at the border a breath away from dying.
3. Negotiate with Mexico for them to ramp up their own border security, and stop assisting invasive caravans to cross their country.
4. Deport all illegal aliens with a violent criminal history or current gang ties.
5. Upgrade our onerous legal immigration system. Anything run by tenured government employees tends to be bloated and slow. Improve it. Add categories for immigration reason, such as I just really want to be an American. Monitor and adjust the flow of immigration to match the prevailing conditions – jobs market, housing, benefits infrastructure. Ensure we are getting the people that we need for the job openings. Reserve some openings for remarkable people from around the world – freedom activists, poets, authors, scientists, etc. Provide intensive training on how our laws and culture may differ from their host country. Emphasize assimilation.
6. When illegal immigration has become rare, then deal with the illegal immigrants who were brought her as children. You know, those Child Passports who are now grown up. They were victims of their parents’ decisions. If they have not broken laws, then they can be extended permanent resident visas, but their parents should not be rewarded for bringing their children here. If their parents are granted legal citizenship or visas, then we’ve just created an industry where a child = skipping the legal process. If Dreamers are made citizens, then they qualify for chain migration, and the very people who used them as immigration bargaining chips get rewarded. I’m open to debate on this one. We need a solution that is fair to the children, but also fair to the citizens and legal residents who followed our laws.
7. Shut off all the “pulls” to illegal immigration on our side. No more sanctuary cities, or the pro-illegal policies referenced above. Let there be no good reason to induce anyone to bring a young child on the Rape Trail here, paying a drug cartel to take them.
8. Work on the “pushes” to illegal immigration. Nation building doesn’t work. People need to root out corruption from within a country. But for those countries who suffer from drought, famines, etc., continue to provide agricultural and hydrology technology to create long term solutions.
Sadly, my phone never rings with the White House wondering what to do.
https://youtu.be/Jj6j5o5eKYQ
…one paid comment at a time?
Nasty.
Ah, but is it true?
Democrats have created Third World conditions in CA, which had the economy of an entire country. Illegal immigration is one of the stressors on the state.
Want more of the same? Want more homelessness, poop on the street, gang shootings, poverty, Common Core, illegal immigration, tent cities? Then vote Democrat.
Argh! I linked the wrong video on Joe Legal Vs Jose Illegal. This one contained a little bit of profanity in the review.
Voters need to figure out if they want open borders, and no longer belong to a country at all, but rather a free for all, or if they want a legal immigration system. Stop trying to have it both ways. Stop this insanity that we have immigration laws, but if an illegal alien pays organized crime to get to a border, they are “safe” from deportation. What the heck kind of immigration system is that?
An argument can be made that it’s unfair to deport illegal immigrants since Democratic policy clearly invited them. The inducements are indeed lush, that Democrats have laid out. In return, when illegal immigrants have children here, those children vote Democrat, to perpetuate the policies.
Of course illegal immigrants take our country up on its offer of all the free stuff and other inducements to illegal immigration.
Definitely a thorny problem. The most pressing issue is to stop the flow of immigration, otherwise, we’ll still be obsessing about it in a hundred years. It will be the problem that never goes away.
It’s not clear about what Trump is truly “disclosing” except that starting next week, the process of removing millions of illegal aliens will begin–a generalized statement so devoid of specifics that it’s hard to consider it actionable in any meaningful way.
Given that ICE is continuously conducting sweeps at unknown times and in unknown locations as a baseline, it’s hard to see how this statement will meaningfully impact the incremental success or failure of this program especially as it looks to be a long-running operation.
Bottom line, this statement is more about politics than anything else and is fundamentally very different from the Oakland mayor disclosing time, location and other specific details with the express intent of “tipping off” illegal immigrants.
The real solution in all of this is to pass common sense immigration law reform; however, that would repudiate the apparent axiom that the good should never stand in the way of partisan politics.
ICE does not conduct “sweeps”. ICE conducts targeted enforcement. This means ICE targets known or suspected illegal aliens (criminal and non-criminal) and criminal legal aliens. ICE can and does make collateral arrests while conducting targeted enforcement.
WHY IS TRUMP ANNOUNCING THIS?
LOOK TO TURLEY’S COLUMN REGARDING THE POLLS
Donald Trump is desperate to reignite his base. So he wants to excite them with the prospect of mass round-ups. And Trump is so excited himself he just had to share it.
But if said round-ups don’t happen, or fizzle from court challenges, Trump will blame the courts. Then a week from now Professor Turley will post columns regarding Trump’s new attacks on the courts. ..Stay tuned..!!
Yep. He has a kick-off rally in Orlando tonight:
Tomorrow we’ll be discussing the wild & crazy things Trump said.
There’s something wrong with the man.
“Trump asks Mulvaney to leave ABC interview for coughing”
“Trump asks Mulvaney to leave ABC interview for coughing”
JT: “…there is something odd about telling potential deportees that sweeps will be launched…”
We’re talking about a target population of 23 million so it doesn’t matter if we “warn them.”
What’s “odd” is that it took him 3 years to “order” mass deportations. I’ll believe it when I see it. Coulter is right in saying that Trump’s in trouble.
Ivan, show us documentation from a recognizable source that says ’23 million’ illegals are here. This number is about twice as big as what we normally see. Florida, our third largest state, has about 23 million people.
https://thehill.com/latino/407848-yale-mit-study-22-million-not-11-million-undocumented-immigrants-in-us
Are you really that under-informed? We all know the answer.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-21/mit-yale-study-doubles-estimates-of-u-s-undocumented-immigrants
Whatever, postering!!! In the meantime fire off a half dozen Tomahawks at Iran.
And now for some real legal news you won’t hear on this blog because it doesn’t fit the mainstream media narrative. . . .
Back in 2018,St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner, financed by billionaire George Soros, led a campaign to oust Missouri Republican Governor Eric Greitens. Gardner and her associate and former FBI agent, William Tisaby, were successful in forcing Greitens to resign from office. Fast forward to today. . .
ST. LOUIS – A former private investigator hired by St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner has been indicted in connection to what he did while investigating Missouri’s former governor. A grand jury indicted William Don Tisaby on six counts of perjury and one count of felony tampering with physical evidence. A 30-page indictment lays out point-by-point accusations which are connected to Gardner’s investigation into Eric Greitens.
https://fox2now.com/2019/06/17/former-investigator-for-circuit-attorneys-office-indicted-for-perjury-evidence-tampering/?fbclid=IwAR35z9xr3Zj3b5FYCTPQxz95pfmKpQVI4qm1LS5QaT6jbDf54Z-3LeBCZzs
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/st-louis-circuit-attorney-candidate-defends-accepting-super-pac-campaign/article_11036aaf-4b1b-58cd-871f-4084f1ec1485.html
Okay, we now return you to stories fitting the official mainstream media narrative.
Thanks, James.
St. Louis Prosecutor’s Investigator In Greitens Case Charged With Perjury, Evidence Tampering
By RACHEL LIPPMANN • JUN 17, 2019
https://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/st-louis-prosecutor-s-investigator-greitens-case-charged-perjury-evidence-tampering#stream/0
“William Tisaby, a former FBI agent who investigated Eric Greitens for the St. Louis circuit attorney, has been charged with seven felonies connected to that investigation.”
Is ICE going to raid Trump properties and businesses?
Dear Donald,
Would you please interfere in self proclaimed president Bolton’s plans to bomb Iran?
Recognize that there is a significant cost to illegals when they go dark to avoid ICE. And also to the employers of illegals, who now have vacancies in their workforces.
I doubt that there will be a push next week, but the illegals will be discomforted.
When the real push starts, expect turmoil.
Could be a ploy to discourage new illegal aliens in Mexico from entering the U.S.
This tweet might cause 1000’s scampering for the border . . . Both ways.
This isn’t the Current P.H. It’s just some loser sock puppet trying to exploit P H’s credibility.
Judging by the content and the avatar (color and pattern), coupled with the ip address, it’s a no brainer…
JT has quite the following.
big sweeps? don’t hold your breath
the system is already clogged up to the gills
hire more immigration judges would be the constructive thing to do
Trump uses immigrants, migrants and the undocumented as props in his “I’m a man” pantomime. He won’t prosecute his big corporate buddies because they want undocumented workers and he’s happy to let them have them. He employees the undocumented. Why shouldn’t they?
He has covered this country in shame.
Trump is not serious as his reluctance to address the employer issue shows. He needs this issue for his survival