As we have been discussing, establishment figures in the Democratic party and the media have been preparing to block any nomination of Bernie Sanders, including using the “superdelegates” to hand the nomination to another candidate. The New York Times reported Thursday that the Democratic establishment was preparing for open warfare over blocking Sanders, even if it shatters the unity of the party. If Sanders does not receive the necessary votes, they intend to take away the nomination even if he has the most votes in the first round. The key again are the superdelegates who are not elected in the primaries but given votes as elected officials.
On MSNBC, former Obama adviser Anton J. Gunn was particularly blunt. He declared “The party decides its nominee. The public doesn’t really decide the nominee.”
In 2016, many of us objected to the concerted effect of the Democratic establishment and the Democratic National Committee to rig the primary for Hillary Clinton. Later it was revealed that the Clintons have largely taken over the DNC by taking over its debt and the DNC openly harassed and hampered Sanders at every stage. Despite this effort, Sanders came close to beating Clinton, who has never forgiven him for contesting a primary that she literally bought and paid for with the DNC. The simmering rage was still evident in Clinton’s attack on Sanders and suggestion that she might not support him if he were the nominee (a suggestion that she later took back).
Well the supers are back and Sanders may again find that it is the party elite, not the voters, who determine who will be the next nominee. The irony is that the elite hardly has an inspiring record. In 2016, every poll showed that voters did not want an establishment figure so the establishment rigged the process for the ultimate establishment figure. Clinton lost to the most unpopular Republican candidate in history. I remain convinced that Sanders could have won that election, a position recently suggested by Michael Bloomberg.
Yet, the same people that gave us the Clinton nomination will be working their magic again at the Democratic Convention. What is fascinating is that the establishment would prefer to risk the election by alienating the huge young following of Sanders rather than allow Sanders to be the nominee. If they give the nomination to another establishment figures like Biden or a billionaire like Bloomberg, the establishment would enrage millions of Sanders followers who could well stay home in 2020.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
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Paul Schulte,
538 agrees with you that there won’t be an outright winner of a majority of delegates by the time of the convention.
They currently put the odds of that at about 60%.
I’m sticking with my view that there will be a candidate with a majority of delegates.
We might have a clearer picture after Super Tuesday, and I’ll try to remember to check to see if 538 changed their odds.
Anonymous – how many delegates did Bernie get from SC?
Paul Schulte,
I think Sanders got about 12-14 debates v. Biden’s c.40 delegates from So. Carolina.
The “big prize” will be the c. 1350 delegates up for grabs on Tuesday.
If Sanders gets 600-800 of those delegates……that’d be my guess…..and Biden, maybe Bloomberg or others divide up the rest, that’ll put Sanders way ahead.
Sanders is getting a lot of support from Hispanic voters, and the two states with the biggest largest number of delegates ( CA. & Texas) have large Hispanic populations.
Anonymous – the problem is they are not winner take all. If Bernie got 12-14 he is probably still ahead in total delegates. This will help Biden and Steyer dropped out today. So the herd thinning continues.
Now it is Bernie, Biden and Bloomberg going into Super Tuesday.
Paul Schulte,
My estimate of 600-800 Super Tuesday delegates for Sanders factors in that it’s not winner take all.
It’s also possible, but unlikely, that the 3 or 4 marginal candidates, “fighting over scraps”, will prevent any of Sanders’ opponents from getting the 15% required to get any delegates in the big states.
Anonymous – well, if I lived in Milwaukee, I would make sure my fire and riot insurance were up-to-date, 🙁
Paul C.Schulte,
My guesstimate of 600-800 delegates for Sanders in today’s Super Tuesday contests was made before Buttigieg and then Klobucher dropped out.
I think they would have siphoned votes from Biden, and benefited Sanders.
Now that they’ve dropped out and endorsed Biden ( ganging up on Poor Bernie), Biden is looking stronger.
I still think Sanders will emerge with more delegates than anyone else, but not the 600-800 delegates I thought he’d win before the two other candidates dropped out.