This week, the Supreme Court will again assemble for a new term and pundits and politicians are already handicapping the cases. This term however has more drama and tension as Democrats call for packing the Court with an instant liberal majority and others attack its members in anticipation of opinions that have yet to be written. The reality is summed up in one of my favorite stories about Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes when he was on a trip to Washington. Holmes forgot his ticket but the train conductor reassured him, “Do not worry about your ticket. We all know who you are. When you get to your destination, you can find it and just mail it to us.” Holmes responded, “My dear man, the problem is not my ticket. The problem is, where am I going?”
The same question is being posed about the Court as a whole. Last term was marked more by unanimous decisions than sharply divided justices breaking along neat ideological lines. However, this term has some “matinee cases” that could deliver transformative rulings. Here are four such cases to watch.
Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization
New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen
New York has not had a great history with the Court recently on gun control cases. New York politicians triggered a long fight over a law that many of us viewed as unconstitutional – pledging publicly to take the law limiting the transportation of guns to the Supreme Court. Once the Supreme Court accepted the case, however, the same politicians changed the law to avoid a final review of the constitutionality. The Court did not immediately dismiss the case as moot and some clearly wanted to call the bluff of the city. However, it finally let the case go, but it now has Bruen.
The case concerns restrictions under N.Y. Penal Law § 400.00(2)(f)on who can receive a concealed-carry handgun license and requires a showing of “proper cause.” Lower courts upheld the law but there are ample constitutional concerns over the vague New York standard like showing that you are “of good moral character.” The case is again a single question presented that could allow a strong pro-gun majority on the Court to reinforce and expand protections under the Second Amendment. Oral argument is scheduled for Nov. 3.
Carson v. Makin
Houston Community College System v. Wilson
There are other notable cases including CVS Pharmacy v. Doe (disability discrimination under the Affordable Care Act), United States v. Zubaydah (the state’s secrets privilege and the rights of a Guantanamo Bay detainee), FBI v. Fazaga (use of informants to target mosques), United States v. Tsarnaev (challenge of one of the Boston bombers to the exclusion of evidence and limits on raising media coverage with potential jurors), Federal Election Commission v. Ted Cruz for Senate (a challenge by Sen. Cruz to the $250,000 cap on repayments to candidates from post-election donations).
It is not clear where all of these cases will take the Court, but, like Holmes, the Court likely to make some serious tracks before this term is over.