Below is my column in USA Today on the effort to impeach President Joe Biden over his freezing of arms shipments to Israel. While one can strongly disagree with the policy or the motivation behind the action, it is not a high crime and misdemeanor in my view.
Here is the column:
After the two impeachments of former President Donald Trump, Congress seems to be on a hair-trigger for anything that can be plausibly, or even implausibly, defined as a high crime and misdemeanor. The latest example is the impeachment resolution introduced against President Joe Biden over his decision to withhold arms from Israel in an attempt to prevent an operation in Rafah to destroy Hamas’ remaining military units.
While there is much to question about Biden’s motivations and his means to pressure Israel, it is not an impeachable offense.
The sponsor of the impeachment resolution, Florida Republican Rep. Cory Mills, maintains that “President Biden abused the powers of his office by soliciting a ‘quid pro quo’ with Israel while leveraging vital military aid for policy changes. This egregious action not only compromised the credibility of the United States but also undermined the interests of our longstanding ally.”
On the surface, there is an obvious appeal for Republicans to use these grounds to impeach Biden. After all, in 2019, Democrats impeached Trump on the basis of a phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which the president threatened to withhold military aid to that country. Democrats insisted that Trump used the threat to deny aid as a way to encourage Zelenskyy to investigate Biden for corruption in Ukraine.
Political analysts on the left and the right have acknowledged that Biden’s hardened stance toward Israel is due to his faltering poll numbers and the threat that he could lose Michigan and Minnesota in the upcoming election. A loss in Michigan, where the state’s large Muslim population has rejected Biden’s past support for Israel, would likely doom his chances for reelection.
Presidents often make decisions based on politics
Even assuming that Biden’s recent changes were motivated by politics in Michigan (which I believe is a fair assessment), it would not be a high crime and misdemeanor. Presidents routinely act out of political interests. Indeed, a democracy involves using one’s voting power to influence politicians like Biden to change policy. The more than 100,000 “uncommitted” votes in Michigan’s Democratic primary clearly spooked the Biden White House.
To impeach presidents for such discretionary conduct would make impeachment a type of “vote of no confidence” device used in countries like the United Kingdom. That is not the purpose of impeachment, which was meant to be a rarely-used measure to address the most egregious forms of presidential misconduct.
The recent resolution falls into a type of “just desserts” rationale for impeachment. I testified in the first Trump impeachment and opposed it on constitutional grounds. I warned Democrats that they would rue the day that they lowered the standard and short-circuited the process for impeachment.
At the time, I told the House Judiciary Committee: “President Trump will not be our last president and what we leave in the wake of this scandal will shape our democracy for generations to come. I am concerned about lowering impeachment standards to fit a paucity of evidence and an abundance of anger. If the House proceeds solely on the Ukrainian allegations, this impeachment would stand out among modern impeachments as the shortest proceeding, with the thinnest evidentiary record, and the narrowest grounds ever used to impeach a president. That does not bode well for future presidents who are working in a country often sharply and, at times, bitterly divided.”
Democrats were wrong then; Republicans are wrong now
After ignoring that warning, Democrats went a step further in the second impeachment in 2021 and used what I called a “snap impeachment” in an attempt to punish Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Campus protests:Columbia cancels graduation ceremony because of student protests. It’s the wrong choice.
It would be an easy thing to say “well, turnabout is fair play, so a pox upon their house.” The problem is that this is the people’s house and we all are harmed by the destruction of the impeachment process. Democrats were wrong in 2019 and 2021 to impeach Trump, but yielding to the same political motives now is no virtue.
Ironically, the new impeachment resolution does precisely what Biden is accused of doing: using constitutionally bestowed powers for raw political purposes.
The White House has insisted that this latest effort is “ridiculous.” Except that isn’t ridiculous given Democrats’ past actions. But it is equally wrong.
In 2023, I testified in the Biden impeachment hearing and said that I believed that there was sufficient basis − and potential impeachable conduct − to justify an inquiry into the Biden corruption scandal. Without prejudging the outcome of that investigation, it was clear that, if proven, some of the allegations would meet the demanding standard under Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution.
The new allegations would not. Even if Biden were shown to be hampering Israel’s war to help him win Michigan, it would not be sufficient. The line between politics and policy has always been imprecise, if not imperceptible. All presidents are first and foremost political creatures. They often use the most noble sentiments to hide the most base interests.
There is a place to render a verdict on such cynical calculations, but it is not on the floor of the House. It is rather in thousands of polling places on Nov. 5.
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @JonathanTurley
How can the dems rue the day if you won’t let them? Revenge is a worthwhile pillar upon which our justice system is built. What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
“QUESTION: If your family is not engaged in business endeavours but instead dedicated their lives to public service, is it normal to have 233 bank accounts for 175 LLCs? Asking for a friend and a nation…” @amuse
And several pseudonyms to hide his involvement:
-Robin Ware
-Robert L. Peters
-JRB Ware
-“The Big Guy”
-Celtic
This is why I follow Jonathan Turley and have for over 20 years. Because he is one of the few out there intelligent enough to place principal over party and over personal opinion. Its a principal he has been trying to educate the general public , congress and anyone else who will listen about for decades.
Unfortunately as a quick peruse of the comments sections reveals, no one gets it anymore. We no longer have a country of reasonable thinking individuals. The average voter is an easy manipulated schmuck. Doesn’t matter which side they are on, liberals or conservatives, both are incapable of rising above their own desires to argue and insult each other “when told to” by their own party leaders that they cannot see they are being played.
Both sides are messed up. This is why we have to focus on issues from a position of principal, not party, but alas, no one listening gets it. No one.
The president is supposed to take care that laws are enforced. This president has gone out of his way to do just the opposite. The Israel embargo is just the latest. Others include forgiveness of college loans and refusal to enforce immigration laws. These are impeachable offenses.
Biden absolutely committed high crimes. Basing the decision to withhold arms from Israel because the people of Israel are mostly Jews and consorting with Jihadists terrorists to aid and abet them in their mass murders of Jews is obvioulsy an impeachable offense.
That said, when all is said and done, Biden has likely lost only about 10% of the US Jewish vote. The remaining 90% of the US Jews–or JINOs, perhaps more accurately–will still vote for Biden even though he’s obvioulsy anti-Semitic and pro-Jihad terrorist. They’d vote for Hitler if he were a Democrat.
The beatification of Michael Cohen doesn’t seem to be going very well. Dennis, Gigi and the other Cohen lovers might want to consider a re-think.
The state of our judicial system accurately portrayed.
Somebody named Scott LoBaido just opened a U-Haul in front of the Manhattan courthouse and released a truckload of penis balloons with images of New York Fats Bragg, Juanita Merchan and Jack Smith into the air. The video on X shows a policeman trying to get one back into the truck battling it with his hands— not that there is anything wrong with that.
Good performance art on Scott LoBaido’s part. He might be a reincarnation of Leon Varjian, who planted hundreds of plastic pink flamingos on Bascom Hill at UW Madison during the 70s.
It looks like the House is going to hold Garland in contempt. Last time this was done with Obama’s Wingman the DOJ did nothing.
But I seem to recall that the Sergeant at Arms can also arrest someone held in contempt. Now that the Dems have shown us it’s a gloves off legal war I hope the House sends the Sergeant at Arms to drag Garland back in cuffs and lock him in a broom closet in his shorts until he agrees to comply with the law for a change.
Young, Republicans only have a one vote majority in the house. Virtually every Republican will have to vote ‘yea’ on that resolution. Not guaranteed!
We learn who the cowards are
Johnathan, although I agree with your assessment. Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi opened this Pandora Box. Therfore it is now “case” law.
You not only don’t agree with his assessment, you don’t even get what he said.
JT, You are wrong when you said,
“There is a place to render a verdict on such cynical calculations, but it is not on the floor of the House. It is rather in thousands of polling places on Nov. 5.”
The fear is that the verdict will be rendered between October 5th and November 4th in the factories where illegal ballots will be manufactured and cast.
Countries should be ruled by whoever can squeeze the most wealth and prosperity out of them.
My arms freeze if I don’t wear a sweater.
Thinkitthrough says:
Another progressive nation bites the dust.
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-economy-cash-shortage-1bb0c49c286495c66a94e32feffc042d.
………………………………….
This is Floyd James Estovir, as Thinkthrough, telling us that Cuba is a ‘progressive’ country. Cuba’s economy has been a disaster for 60 years! It is also one the most repressive states in the western world. To call it ‘progressive’ is like calling Russia a ‘thriving democracy’, or calling Mississippi a ‘model for good healthcare.
All day every day Floyd Estovir posts stupid declarations like this just to fill space on these comment threads. Does Floyd have nothing better to do, or is this what he does?
Micheal Moore begs to differ with you. In fact wide swaths of USA progressives have always promoted the policies of Cuba,
Michael Moore, wide swaths of USA progressives, Cubans, and Cuba are communists and direct and mortal enemies of the American thesis of Freedom and Self-Reliance, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, actual Americans, and America.
Iowan2 ‘is’ Floyd Estovir plus the 2 anonymouses below.
Correct, progressivism is false advertising – that is EXACTLY the point.
Castro Promised everything progressives demand today. So did Lenin and Stalin and Mao and Pol Pot and Chavez and Maduro and Allende, and … a long list of failed “progrssives” that created h311holes.
States in which so called progressives have come to power are the most repressive states in the world.
They have failed economies.
As to Mississippi – I though Obamacare fixed all of that ?
Are you saying that progressives once again “reformed” our healthcare system – this time to the tune of $2T/decade (why does that suddenly seem like a small number) and nothing has changed ?
The fact is Progressives have been “reforming” things for my entire lifetime – and each reform increases cost, decreases quality and brings us closer to failure. And the progressive solution ? More progressive reform.
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Attributed to Einstein.
ATS rightfully notes the failures of Russia, and Cuba though missing that they are just two of Dozens of countries progressives have F#$Ked over since the French Revolution.
ATS is correct – these places are not Progressive.
But they are the consequences of progressives gaining power.
“I think the real danger to the country is the progressive agenda.”
“A continuation of the Biden administration is national suicide.”
“I will vote the Republican ticket. I will support the Republican ticket.”
– Attorney General William Pelham Barr
“A continuation of the Biden administration is national suicide.”
Or perhaps national homicide, given how much the Dems are interfering in the 2024 election.
Interfering with the entire thesis and nation beginning in 1860 with the election of the Lincoln/Marx ticket.
The singular American failure is the judicial branch with emphasis on the Supreme Court.
America was established as the Constitution, Bill of Rights, and Naturalization Act of 1790.
The entire communistic American welfare state is unconstitutional including, but not limited to, admissions affirmative action, grade-inflation affirmative action, employment affirmative action, quotas, welfare, food stamps, minimum wage, rent control, social services, forced busing, public housing, utility subsidies, WIC, SNAP, TANF, HAMP, HARP, TARP, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Environmental Protection Agency, Agriculture, Education, Labor, Energy, Obamacare, Social Security, Social Security Disability, Social Security Supplemental Income, Medicare, Medicaid, “Fair Housing” laws, “Non-Discrimination” laws, etc.
Article 1, Section 8, provides Congress the power to tax for ONLY debt, defense, and “…general (all, the whole) Welfare…,” all, well, proceed, or basic infrastructure, omitting and, thereby, excluding any power to tax for individual Welfare, specific Welfare, particular Welfare, favor or charity. The same article enumerates and provides Congress the power to regulate ONLY the Value of money, Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian Tribes, and land and naval Forces. Additionally, the 5th Amendment right to private property was initially qualified by the Framers and is, therefore, absolute, allowing no further qualification, and allowing ONLY the owner the power to “claim and exercise” dominion over private property.
Government exists, under the Constitution and Bill of Rights, to provide maximal freedom to individuals while government is severely limited and restricted to merely facilitating that maximal freedom of individuals through the provision of only security and infrastructure.
The land of the free…
Not so much!
The land of Comrades Lincoln and Marx.
Professor Turley rarely acknowledges that 10 House Republicans voted to impeach Trump & 7 GOP Senators voted to convict Trump for his role in the J6 attack on the Capitol—in what Turley calls “a snap impeachment.”
Senator Richard Burr: “The evidence is compelling that President Trump is guilty of inciting an insurrection against a coequal branch of government and that the charge rises to the level of high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
Senator Susan Collins: “The abuse of power and betrayal of his oath by President Trump meet the constitutional standard of ‘high crimes and misdemeanors’ and for those reasons I voted to convict Donald J. Trump.”
Senator Pat Toomey: “As a result of President Trump’s actions, for the first time in American history, the transfer of presidential power was not peaceful. A lawless attempt to retain power by a president was one of the founders’ greatest fears motivating the inclusion of the impeachment authorities in the U.S. Constitution.”
Professor Turley presumably believes the 17 Republicans who voted to impeach & convict Trump were “lowering impeachment standards to fit a paucity of evidence and an abundance of anger.” What he doesn’t say is that it’s the first time in US history that 17 members of the President’s own party voted to impeach & convict him.
Your tears over Professor Turley’s writing are delicious.
Thanks!
So now we can hold you to the standard of what was said by (and never proven) “10 House Republicans & 7 GOP Senators.”
Right? RIGHT?
PS: Glad you’ve raised your standards from “whoopi goldberg, 2 addled antifas, and 6 black marxists from brooklyn”
So please tell everyone again who has been tried and convicted of insurrection? Do you truly think that saying you’re a Republican to win a seat in Congress makes you a true Republican? Have you heard of Mitt Romney or Adam Kinzinger? Progressive liberal globalists in Republican clothing.
We are witnessing the fall of the cabal.
“PEACEFULLY AND PATRIOTICALLY”
“ONLY COUNT THE ELECTORS WHO HAVE BEEN LAWFULLY SLATED”
___________________________________________________________________________
“I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”
“We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated. Lawfully slated.”
“And we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them.”
– Real President Donald J. Trump, January 6, 2021
Thankfully, Congress did only count the electors who were lawfully slated when they certified President Joe Biden’s Electoral College Victory on January 6, 2021. The basic foundation of American democracy–free & fair elections–prevailed thanks to Congress & Vice President Pence firmly adhering to the US Constitution.
TO AMERICA’S DETRIMENT, IN FACT, MANY ELECTORS WERE NOT LAWFULLY SLATED
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
AG Paxton Sues Battleground States for Unconstitutional Changes to 2020 Election Laws
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton today filed a lawsuit against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the United States Supreme Court. The four states exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to justify ignoring federal and state election laws and unlawfully enacting last-minute changes, thus skewing the results of the 2020 General Election. The battleground states flooded their people with unlawful ballot applications and ballots while ignoring statutory requirements as to how they were received, evaluated and counted.
“Trust in the integrity of our election processes is sacrosanct and binds our citizenry and the States in this Union together. Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin destroyed that trust and compromised the security and integrity of the 2020 election. The states violated statutes enacted by their duly elected legislatures, thereby violating the Constitution. By ignoring both state and federal law, these states have not only tainted the integrity of their own citizens’ vote, but of Texas and every other state that held lawful elections,” said Attorney General Paxton. “Their failure to abide by the rule of law casts a dark shadow of doubt over the outcome of the entire election. We now ask that the Supreme Court step in to correct this egregious error.”
Elections for federal office must comport with federal constitutional standards. For presidential elections, each state must appoint its electors to the electoral college in a manner that complies with the Constitution. The Electors Clause requirement that only state legislatures may set the rules governing the appointment of electors and elections and cannot be delegated to local officials. The majority of the rushed decisions, made by local officials, were not approved by the state legislatures, thereby circumventing the Constitution.
– Ken Paxton, Attorney General of Texas
Ken Paxton sought to invalidate millions of mail-in ballots cast by legal voters in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Election officials in those states recounted ballots multiple times to confirm the results reflected the will of their legal voters. Bill Barr confirmed that the Trump DOJ found no evidence of widescale voter fraud which would change 2020 election results.
Thankfully, Paxton failed in his efforts to deprive millions o legal American voters of their right to participate in US elections.
American voters have no constitutional right to vote; the vote is denied or granted by State legislatures.
The vote in the American restricted-vote republic was intended and legislated to be restricted by State legislatures.
The vote has been limited and restricted since the inception of “democracy” in Greece.
Human beings are not intellectually or emotionally capable of voting rationally until the age of 21, which is the first restriction the Founders implemented, in fact.
One man, one vote “democracy” constitutes the communist “dictatorship of the proletariat.”
Dependent parasites were never intended to vote; the artificial status largesse they beg and vote for is precluded by the Constitution; Congress may not tax for it or fund it.
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THE RESTRICTED-VOTE REPUBLIC OF THE AMERICAN FOUNDERS AND FRAMERS
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
“the people are nothing but a great beast…
I have learned to hold popular opinion of no value.”
– Alexander Hamilton
_________________________
“The true reason (says Blackstone) of requiring any qualification, with regard to property in voters, is to exclude such persons, as are in so mean a situation, that they are esteemed to have no will of their own.”
“If it were probable that every man would give his vote freely, and without influence of any kind, then, upon the true theory and genuine principles of liberty, every member of the community, however poor, should have a vote… But since that can hardly be expected, in persons of indigent fortunes, or such as are under the immediate dominion of others, all popular states have been obliged to establish certain qualifications, whereby, some who are suspected to have no will of their own, are excluded from voting; in order to set other individuals, whose wills may be supposed independent, more thoroughly upon a level with each other.”
– Alexander Hamilton, The Farmer Refuted, 1775
_____________________________________________________
“[We gave you] a [restricted-vote] republic, if you can keep it.”
– Ben Franklin, 1787
_______________________
Turnout was 11.6% in 1789.
Voter qualifications were male, European, 21, 50 lbs. Sterling/50 acres generally by State.
Immigrants admitted to become citizens were “…free white person(s)….”
The American Founders asked no one to “fundamentally transform the United States of America”—that is a function of a detestable, direct, and mortal enemy.
Which proves that Republicans are more independent-minded than Democrats.
Whether it is impeachable or not depends on the language of the duly passed spending and other legislation. If the existing, passed legislation gives specific dollar amounts, specific arms to be delivered, specific time periods for the deliveries to be made, specific conditions the occurence of which require delivering arms, then Biden’s failure to follow those duly enacted statutory laws is in fact an impeachable offense. He is practing sequestration, for which the Supreme Court slapped Nixon upside the head. Of course, it’s Biden, so he doesn’t care.
On the other hand, if the existing duly passed statutory spending legislation provide general guidance, general pots of money, general categories of arms, etc. and leaves the President discretion as to how to allocated those things, and when, then it is not impeachable.
Because for the past many years, federal government spending has been by continuing resolution, and continuing resolutions are HUGE, and are “adjusted” by deletion, addition, modification until they are passed, as Stretch Pelosi said, being literally literally accurate: you have to pass it to find out what’s in it. And no one has time to read that mess, because the next one is already being drafted.
“No, President Biden Did Not Commit an Impeachable Offense in Freezing the Arms Shipment to Israel”
– Professor Turley
_____________________
The momentous impeachable offenses commenced in 1860.
This all started with Lincoln, who nullified and voided the Constitution to “save the union” and ushered in the subsequent 150 years of implementation of the principles of the Communist Manifesto, beginning with Karl Marx’s forcibly imposed “Reconstruction Amendments,” which resulted from the liberal, illicit, and unconstitutional application of kinetic military force—with a gun to America’s head.
If the judicial branch, with emphasis on the Supreme Court, had supported the Constitution, as is its charge and sworn duty, understanding that secession is not prohibited and is fully constitutional, the Southern States would have seceded, failed, and reunited; the long-suffering African abductees would have been compassionately repatriated per the Naturalization Act of 1802, and America would exist in peace as homogeneous and united states, as is the case with all other rational and coherent nations such as Japan, Austria, China, Finland, Algeria, Russia, Morocco, Norway, India, Saudi Arabia, Denmark, Tunisia, Germany, Australia, Bangladesh, etc.
Just as the Supreme Court of 2022 recently acted retroactively by 50 years to correct the high criminal Supreme Court of 1973 regarding abortion, the Supreme Court of 2024 must act retroactively by 150 years to correct the Supreme Court of 1860 regarding not-prohibited and fully constitutional secession, all corollaries, and related subsequent acts.
To preserve the massive strides of Karl Marx in America, Joe Biden, in stark contrast to the immigration law passed at the adoption of the Constitution and Bill of Rights by the American Founders and Framers, illicitly, antithetically, and unconstitutionally abrogated that very Naturalization Act of 1802, and stole 12 million illegal alien foreign invaders into America during his term. America must be returned to the Constitution, Bill of Rights, and Naturalization Act of the American Founders and Framers.
This all started with Lincoln.
Another progressive nation bites the dust. https://apnews.com/article/cuba-economy-cash-shortage-1bb0c49c286495c66a94e32feffc042d.
One of the few “Biden” actions that is neither impeachable nor criminal nor even just plain dumb and this is what the boomercons want to get him on. This is why the gop is a party of losers just like Vivek said.
From even the political perspective this is a mistake.
Yes, Biden is in trouble without Muslim voters in Michigan.
But he has already angered them and is unlikely to get them back.
Republicans are NOT feeling the same backlash – partly because Muslim voters are not a Republican voting block.
But also because many muslim voters, many non-0muslim supporters of the palestinians grasp that the current War is the consequence of Bar Democratic policies. Many Muslims and pro Palestinian voters grasp that If Trump was president this war would not have occurred.
They many not have wanted Trump’s pro Israel policies, but they also did not want this war.
Further even though there is not likely a president that is a stronger supporter of Israel than Trump,
he has also been the most successful and freindly with arab nations in the mideast of any president since Carter.
Regardless, Biden’s policy failures have put him into a lose/lose position.
He can not afford to lose muslim voters in swing state.
He likely will lose many of them no matter what he does,
and his efforts to appeal to those voters are offensive – even deeply offensive to many other voters.
This is what electing a Moron to the presidency looks like.
@John
John, respectfully, your mistake is thinking he was elected. He wasn’t. He was ‘positioned’. The modern dem party is a regime, the figurehead is interchangeable. If we do not nip this in the bud now, we are pretty much done. We all need to stop talking about this as though our laws matter or that they were even a consideration over the past number of years. That is done. Elucidate all you like; that is not the game these people are playing, and but for the theatre of it – they don’t care. They really don’t care. I’ll say it again: THEY. DO. NOT. CARE.
Which Hollywood producer have the dems contracted to do the debate (a la J6)? i appreciate your mind and your vigor, very much in fact, you are a great poster and i learn from you; but you are addressing something, often at great length, that may be relevant to *us*, it is absolutely, 1000% irrelevant to them. And they pull the strings, not our comments on a legal blog. We are getting down to put up or shut up. The days of being precious about elections is over. Party doesn’t matter. either you want to live in a free America or you don’t, and no amount of rumination or elucidation is going to make a bit of difference. Accept this or not. If you are a dem that still thinks you are voting for JFK: WAKE. THE. EFF. Up. You are voting for this:
https://revcom.us/en
HE GETS IT!
The American Founders NEVER intended for “morons” et al. to vote.
To wit,
“the people are nothing but a great beast…
I have learned to hold popular opinion of no value.”
– Alexander Hamilton
_________________________
“The true reason (says Blackstone) of requiring any qualification, with regard to property in voters, is to exclude such persons, as are in so mean a situation, that they are esteemed to have no will of their own.”
“If it were probable that every man would give his vote freely, and without influence of any kind, then, upon the true theory and genuine principles of liberty, every member of the community, however poor, should have a vote… But since that can hardly be expected, in persons of indigent fortunes, or such as are under the immediate dominion of others, all popular states have been obliged to establish certain qualifications, whereby, some who are suspected to have no will of their own, are excluded from voting; in order to set other individuals, whose wills may be supposed independent, more thoroughly upon a level with each other.”
– Alexander Hamilton, The Farmer Refuted, 1775
_____________________________________________________
“[We gave you] a [restricted-vote] republic, if you can keep it.”
– Ben Franklin, 1787
_______________________
Turnout was 11.6% in 1789.
Voter qualifications were male, European, 21, 50 lbs. Sterling/50 acres generally by State.
Immigrants admitted to become citizens were “…free white person(s)….”
The American Founders asked no one to “fundamentally transform the United States of America”—that is a function of a detestable, direct, and mortal enemy.
@John Say,
“Yes, Biden is in trouble without Muslim voters in Michigan.”
Umm..no, he’s not really in trouble in Michigan. The percentage of Muslim voters is so small that even a small number who chose to not vote for Biden won’t make much of a difference. Plus it’s still way too early to start making predictions about how voters will vote in November.
Trump can’t afford to lost many Michigan voters either. His base has not really grown or increased in size. It’s been shrinking with independents and if he is convicted in the Hush money case he can lose a lot more.
George use numbers.
Talking in abstracts say nothing
Biden won 2020 by 150k votes in Michigan. There are 240k Muslims in Michigan
Just half of that population, is a huge lose for Biden
latest poll has Trump leading in Michigan by 2%. That’s not important. What is important is Trump has been gaining for more than 6 months.
Polls as of May 16, 2024: Trump +1.1/+2.7 | 2020: Biden +4.7 | 2016: Clinton +5.7
In each of 2016 and 2020 Trump gained ground from May to November.
The press likes to say that races tend to tighten as the election approached, but in MOST instances the reality is that Republican presidential candidates tend to make small (or sometimes large) gains from may though november.
There are exceptions – but not many.
George
If Biden loses Michigan the election is over.
Current RCP averages
Wisconsin 47.9 47.3 Trump +0.6
Arizona 48.4 43.2 Trump +5.2
Georgia 49.0 44.4 Trump +4.6
Michigan 46.0 45.2 Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania 47.6 45.6 Trump +2.0
North Carolina 48.2 42.8 Trump +5.4
Nevada 48.0 41.8 Trump +6.2
I beleive if Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – there is an Electoral college Tie
Presuming that NE and ME both split the normal way. If Either allows Trump to gain 1 more electoral vote – it is not a Tie, it is a narrow Trump win.
At this moment if you decide that the margin of error in these polls ENTIRELY is against Biden – Trump still wins the election.
Through the 21st century the polls have never Overestimated Republican strength.
Even in 2022 the red wave that failed to materialize – the pols were correct. The anticipated Red wave was based on the fact that the average polling error over the past 12 years was overestimating democrats.
Trump can afford to lose Michigan entirely. Biden can not.
You MAY be correct that Trump’s base has not grown – but Biden’s has shrunk.
Despite the hype over this election there are indications that turnout may be lower than in 2020.
I have no idea if you are correct regarding Trump and independents. You could be.
But the FACT is Biden’s base has shrunk – and that is the real driver of this election.
There are about 240,000 muslims in Michigan. Biden won Michigan by a bit more than 100K votes – presuming you beleive the vote count.
Further Muslims are only part of it. Left wing nut students are spread accross the country.
Losing a significant portion of them will not cost Biden California. But it will make the election much harder everywhere else.
“if he is convicted in the Hush money case he can lose a lot more.”
In theory he could Polls show that he could lose 4% of Republicans and independents – or about 2% of the total vote.
That would STILL result in an easy Trump win – just not a 300-340EC win.
But there are two problems with that claim.
Polls said Trump would lose 10% if he was indicted – he was indicted 4 times, and his polling went Up not down.
I can not prove the polls are wrong in claiming that Trump will lose voters if convicted in Manhattan.
We will have to wait and see to be sure.
But the questions those polls as is “if Trump was convicted of a felony”
There is a hidden assumption in those polls that voters believe he was convicted in a fair trial by a fair judge with a fair jury.
Super majorities of republicans and large majorities of independents already do not believe that the Bragg case (or any of the others) has been fair.
Democrats in GA, FL, DC, and NY had the opportunity to conduct trials that the public would buy as fair.
You haven’t. Though honestly – actually fair judges would have tossed these cases.
They are nothing burgers.
Regardless, I could be wrong. Trump could be convicted – I think the odds of tht are MUCH lower than at the start – this case has gone horribly for Bragg. But the odds still favor a conviction by a Manhattan Jury – not because of the evidence.
This case is DOA on the facts and the law.
But for Two reasons.
These jurors likely do not beleive Trump is in any actual peril of going to jail of even having a conviction upheld.
The will not be voting to determine if Trump committed a crime.
They will be voting as to whether they beleive Trump should be weakened for the 2024 election.
I think Bragg can get 12 jurors in Manhattan to say – If I vote Guilty Trump may lose in november but will never go to jail.
If I vote innocent he likely will win in november.
The next reason is it is Manhattan and the jury selection processes was designed to favor bragg.
The majority of these Jurrors would have convicted if Bragg put on no case, The rest are not likely far behind.
If you wanted people to beleive the outcome of this case – change the venue to Staten Island or Long Island.
Regardless, my Bet is that Trump is convicted. There is a 1-2pt dip in the polls for a week or less and that within a month Trump is up by 4pts instead of 2.7pts.
I would separately note – one of the most important factors for Trump is that he MUST be atleast 1 full point ahead of Biden on election day.
Why is this important ? Because the largest possible election fraud in swing states without getting caught is about 0.5%, and even then that is only possible if the fraud is in favor of a candidate that also wins the popular vote.
One of the most significant problems that Trump had with his election challenges in 2020 was not lack of evidence. It was not the law. It was not even biased courts.
It was that he had lost the popular vote by about 6.5M.
While the election is not decided by the popular vote. Trying to get the courts to care when you lost the popular vote nationally by 6.5M
is an uphill slog.
If Trump wins the popular vote – he will with certainty win the electoral college in a landslide – potentially close to 340:200.
If Trump does not win the popular vote, it is possible to steal the election again – though harder.
The self imposed demographics of democrats concentrating heavily in big cities gives Republicans almost a 4pt advantage in house and Presidential elections.
I would further note that NY, NJ, WA, and VA are all in play.
Except MAYBE VA, Trump is unlikely to win any of those.
But they were all double digits for Biden in 2020, they are all single digits now.
They are all in striking distance for Trump.
Which means Biden is going to be forced to campaign not just in swing states but in states that should have been sure things.
Biden can not afford to lose a single one of those states.
He can not lose Michigan or its over, he can not lose PA or its over.
The fight for those two states is going to be bloody and brutal.
And Biden MUST win and Trump can afford to lose them.
It would require a 4pt error in polls or a 4pt gain by biden to make this election competitive again – or to take Trump off of offense.
I would note something else.
The economy has been fighting off a recession for 3 years. The Fed has been dancing arround in the fight against inflation trying to avoid causing a recession.
They apear to have lost – lots of indicators are turing negative.
Consumer sentiment has dropped.
Inflation ticked up a little.
Growth though still positive has been dropping.
Biden will likely end his term with overall volatile growth – like Obama (unlike Slow and steady with Trump) and probably an average of sub 2% – which is below Trump including Covid.
The Fed is not going to lower rates as predicted and is likely to raise rates.
That MAY trigger a recession. But it absolutely will NOT lead to a strengthening economy as the election approaches.
Economies RARELY strengthen headed into an election – 2020 was an exception – we were headed out of the bad Covid polices that was a bigger factor than the negative effect of pending elections.
And to ice things – every single incumbent president with approval ratings as high as 10pts above Biden at this date has Lost re-election – including Trump.
No incumbent has ever recovered from approval this low.