Below is my column in The Hill on the recent announcements of additional layoffs due to AI and robotics. The economic and political impact of this technological revolution is a focus of my new book Rage and the Republic. We are already watching this unfold, including the adoption of Universal Basic Income programs around the country. These changes will constitute one of the greatest challenges to our Republic on the 250th anniversary of our independence.
Here is the column:
This week, thousands of workers are receiving pink slips. They are not being let go due to inflation or outsourcing to foreign countries. To the contrary, they are being fired because booming sectors of the economy no longer need them. Indeed, it is an economy that may need fewer and fewer humans.
Amazon this week announced further job cuts due to robotics and AI. Recently, Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of Twitter, announced that his company Block would be laying off 40 percent of its employees. He cited AI as reducing the need for human employees.
In my book, “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” I discuss not just the economic changes unfolding due to AI and robotics but also the political implications of those changes for the American republic.
These economic changes are unfolding all around us. We are looking at one of the greatest job losses in history.
In a free-market system, such technological changes tend to offset losses with new jobs in emerging industries. And there will be such growth with the AI and robotic revolutions. But it is also likely that we are looking at a static class of unemployed and practically unemployable citizens as this new revolution unfolds.
But what is most notable about the Amazon announcement is that these were white-collar jobs. The impact of AI is not confined to factory workers and truck drivers.
The danger is that politicians will react predictably and try to subsidize jobs that are no longer viable and industries that are being dramatically downsized. At the same time, they are likely to expand model programs in Democratic cities for universal basic or guaranteed income.
Democrats have moved forward with more than 60 bills creating such programs, and this week, Cook County, Ill. (the second-largest county in the U.S.) made permanent the universal basic income program it had originally launched with federal COVID-19 relief funds.
The problem is the creation of what I call a “kept citizenship” in a republic designed for people who are economically and politically independent from the government. That system is seriously undermined by a large percentage of citizens living off the government dole.
The solution cannot be an “arts-and-crafts” population kept entertained by government programs to learn glassblowing and pottery-making. A different type of citizen would emerge that is unlikely to be sufficiently free of the government to counter its excesses or failures.
“Rage and the Republic” lays out what I call a “liberty-enhancing economy.” It notes that this is not just the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence but the 250th anniversary of the release of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations. The founders immediately embraced Smith’s economic theories as the perfect companion for their political theories. They believed that true freedom requires economic independence from government.
That means accepting the economic changes and the loss of certain jobs. AI and robotics will largely wipe out certain jobs from taxi drivers to radiologists to warehouse workers. Meanwhile, we need to focus on homocentric jobs. In the book, I called these “Guinan jobs” after the bartender on the starship Enterprise in “Star Trek: The Next Generation.” As a kid, I was always confused by Guinan (played by Whoopi Goldberg), who would mix a drink next to a replicator that could produce the perfect Romulan cocktail every time without fail or variation. Customers clearly wanted Guinan to make the cocktail, even if it is not perfect every time.
The question I ask is, how many “Guinan jobs” are out there. There are many, including teachers, psychiatrists and lawyers, who will be affected but likely not eliminated by AI. We will still want humans in these positions.
All governments will face this existential crisis in the 21st Century. It will create growing instability globally. Although AI and robotics will make goods cheaper and more widely available, they are also likely to have a dramatic effect on populations. For example, as production costs drop with the new technology, there will be less advantage to moving factories to other countries with cheaper labor forces, such as China and Mexico.
Companies may choose to build near consumer markets to save on transportation costs while utilizing higher-skilled worker populations to maintain robotic and AI systems. That could produce massive unemployment in certain countries with low-educated, low-income populations. That in turn could destabilize governments and increase the chances of war in countries with large populations of unemployed young men.
I also do not feel great optimism for global governance systems like the European Union. The EU has largely eviscerated the elements I identify in the American Revolution as producing the oldest and most stable democratic system. Although global governance is likely to increase, it could fail spectacularly due to its inherent instabilities.
In the U.S., this period of economic change is likely to fuel calls for socialist policies. Socialism has always thrived on economic upheavals. Indeed, socialists often use their own failures to further collectivize or centralize economies.
Our republic is uniquely situated to not only survive but to thrive in the 21st Century. It was conceived in and designed for changing economic conditions. But if we are to survive, we must remain faithful to the constitutional structure that has afforded us stability for more than two centuries. Despite calls to trash the Constitution, pack the Supreme Court and change our political system, these protections are the very things that can get us through this century intact.
The Founders designed our Republic to prevent the tendency of democracies to become what one called a “mobocracy.” They knew that political and economic instability could create a form of “democratic despotism” in which democracies devoured themselves.
We have a system that has overcome challenges — from redcoats to robots — that have crushed other countries. However, we must remember who we are. Our nation, created in the winds of change by a free and industrious people, need not fear change. It is a system designed for bad times, not good times. The true crisis is a crisis of faith being fueled by some in academia and in the media.
This republic will survive so long as it does not die by our own hand.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“
In a blistering takedown of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, on Sunday Eric Trump claimed that the late Ayatollah’s son was an incompetent idiot who only attained his position through nepotism.
“The last thing the world needs is yet another total bonehead getting a leg up just because of who his dad is,” Trump said. “If this dope’s last name was Henderson instead of Khamenei, he wouldn’t even be in the conversation.”
He added that giving someone control over massive sums of money just because he had a powerful father is “a recipe for disaster.”
“What kind of backwards country showers someone with riches because of who his dad is?” Trump asked. “All I can say is, congratulations, Iran: you just chose a member of the Lucky Sperm Club.”
Relax. Like father, like son. We don’t like to see bad boys in town. Get some more coffins ready.
Darren,
WordPress is sooooo 2026, isn’t it time we upgrade the Professor to an interactive HoloPod so we can hold Q&A.
Jonathan is constantly raving about ‘Rage and the Republic’ and the ‘Revolution’ it will spark. We’d like to know (via interactive conversation)
“Whose Revolution” is it?
^^^ So often what’s meant to protect Us, becomes what destroys Us. ^^^
An issue Gene Rodenberry left unaddressed was the socio-economic evolution created by the technological advances his audience accepted as inherent in the Star Trek universe. We are left to our own devices to deal with them in this century and going forward. It will become the history that Kirk and company look back on.
“An issue Gene Rodenberry left unaddressed was the socio-economic evolution created by the technological advances his audience accepted as inherent in the Star Trek universe.”
You are correct, at least in regard to technological advances considered on their own (there was some dialog banter, particularly in conversations between Spock and McCoy, dealing with broader cultural changes in general in relation to human history) and that is quite a failing. The original precept of Science Fiction was to juxtapose technological advancements and current human society. I give you Ray Bradbury, Robert A. Heinlein, and Larry Niven as examples of what the genre was intended to accomplish.
The Terminator is coming to the office. Resistance is futile.
What shocked me more is that the humans that are willing and seemingly with no regard for consequences or second thought are plowing right ahead into this. How bad are their finances if they are eliminating human jobs to give to robots. This is the surest sign of humanity being nil if this is the future course of action. I pray we do not lose our humanity. Please do not allow a robot to take over your lives. As tempting as it may be, you are turning away from human potential doing so.
Future. I doubt it. At this stage, AI is all hype. Investors are throwing money at it like the Tulip Mania of 1630’s …. then the inevitable financial bubble … when the AI market is oversaturated, then …. As for humanity. Well politics from today onwards will see it that humans are culled by wars and starvation. A new humanity will arise. Not really.
@Anonymous
This is also accurate. Silicon Valley is very good at gaslighting, usually in the name of $$$; we are thankfully less accepting of it now. Time will tell, but this gold rush has an expiration date. The question is: how much damage will be done in the meantime, and will the generations impacted ever be able to readjust? The ‘Common Core kids’ struggle to this day. So do the ‘covid kids’. This is in that ballpark.
I find AI technology comparable in scope/consequence to DNA discovery and its developmental use/abuse, (e.g. gene manipulation to resolve disease processes vs. possibility of human cloning).
“At this stage, AI is all hype”
I believed exactly that, until recently, and I would like to continue to do so. But this article, by a developer inside the mainstream AI industry, calls that premise into serious doubt. As an aside, I had a 38 year, high level IT career, including a ton of system development and coding activities over the first 24 years of it. While technology has dramatically changed in ways that prevent me from doing meaningful any low-level detail review of what is gong on, the basic tenets are not that different, and these observations strike me as very plausible. Self-modification has been the Holy Grail of systems development for as long as I can remember, and it appears that AI has now brought us to the brink of success (if that is really the correct word) in that regard.
Matt Shumer on X: “Something Big Is Happening”
https://x.com/mattshumer_/status/2021256989876109403
“”But I tried AI and it wasn’t that good”
I hear this constantly. I understand it, because it used to be true. If you tried ChatGPT in 2023 or early 2024 and thought “this makes stuff up” or “this isn’t that impressive”, you were right. Those early versions were genuinely limited. They hallucinated. They confidently said things that were nonsense. That was two years ago. In AI time, that is ancient history. The models available today are unrecognizable from what existed even six months ago. The debate about whether AI is “really getting better” or “hitting a wall” — which has been going on for over a year — is over. It’s done. Anyone still making that argument either hasn’t used the current models, has an incentive to downplay what’s happening, or is evaluating based on an experience from 2024 that is no longer relevant. I don’t say that to be dismissive. I say it because the gap between public perception and current reality is now enormous, and that gap is dangerous… because it’s preventing people from preparing. Part of the problem is that most people are using the free version of AI tools. The free version is over a year behind what paying users have access to. Judging AI based on free-tier ChatGPT is like evaluating the state of smartphones by using a flip phone. The people paying for the best tools, and actually using them daily for real work, know what’s coming.
…
One of the main things that makes AI better is intelligence applied to AI development. And AI is now intelligent enough to meaningfully contribute to its own improvement. Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, says AI is now writing “much of the code” at his company, and that the feedback loop between current AI and next-generation AI is “gathering steam month by month.” He says we may be “only 1–2 years away from a point where the current generation of AI autonomously builds the next.” Each generation helps build the next, which is smarter, which builds the next faster, which is smarter still. The researchers call this an intelligence explosion. And the people who would know — the ones building it — believe the process has already started.”
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
@Anthony
I’ve considered that as well, it’s a lack of foresight, people do not seem to realize they too, will have to live in the world we are creating. I am not certain humanity will even see a 22nd century, and it won’t be due to climate change. 😂 I feel really bad for anyone just starting out these days.
It does appear bleak. Imagine learning that the demise of civilization came at the hands of robots yes but also human stupidity that was masked by overzealous ambition. Yikes.
@Anthony
For myself, I would stick with the human stupidity. It isn’t as though we do not have control over what we think or consume, or what we power up and give ourselves over to. We are just forgetting that on an epic scale, IMO. This goes for mature adults as well as children.
I understand Ai is also screening job applications and due to the quirks of Ai rejecting or accepting based on key words. The next iteration avoids or loads those keywords so now you get “Did I say that?” from some dumb assed human in an interview.
Also there is AI to produce resumes based on keywords AI seeks.
Dumb ass human? You?
There will undoubtedly be “my bot vs your bot” battles in the very near future. In fact, there are days when I think that the comments section of this blog is a test ground for that interaction.
@Amish
That is correct, and it is madness. ‘Big data’ – which is what algorithms are trained on – is garbage data – just a bunch of disparate opinions and experiences from an infinite number of disparate people strung together in a very much futile attempt to find something cogent. This does not work beyond hard facts like 1 + 1 = 2, and you might even get the wrong answer for that question relying entirely on algorithms, given the way things have unfolded.
It means absolutely nothing useful except to reinforce the fact that reality varies depending on an individual’s experience of it and thinking about it. It’s a bad joke, and the fruit of a generation, placed in positions of authority they were not ready for, that had to be told what to think because they weren’t taught to think for themselves, or indeed, even, that their own thinking about something was not necessarily the final word or universal truth.
It’s a big, big mess, and it could very well destroy us. Not because of a ‘Terminator’ scenario, but because too many of us are far too stupid, comfortable, and complacent. And yes, this mirrors the 1930s and all that transpired then after the roaring 20s.
A nuclear bomb was required to stop things then. Surely we have evolved in the time since. I certainly hope so, because we are dealing with fools in every sense of the word.
Turley cites Adam Smith’s 1776 theories to argue for total independence from the state. But the Founders’ version of independence was rooted in land ownership. In a digital, automated age where traditional “property” is harder to acquire, a basic income serves as the modern equivalent—a “social dividend” that provides the floor necessary for a citizen to remain truly free from both government coercion and corporate exploitation.
Characterizing a supported population as an “arts-and-crafts” society is a straw man. Data suggests that when people receive unconditional cash, they use it for essentials, education, and debt repayment. By providing a floor, the government doesn’t “keep” the citizen; it empowers the citizen to negotiate for better wages or retrain for the very “Guinan jobs” Turley advocates for.
“. . . when people receive unconditional cash . . .”
Paid for by whom?
I wonder why socialists keep evading that question.
Sam, they eventually get to the question right about the time they have to take out their own wallet.
Sam, As technology “wipes out” human roles, the massive profits generated by automated labor can be taxed to fund the very consumers needed to buy the products.
This isn’t “taking” from workers; it is reclaiming the surplus value created by machines that replaced those workers in the first place.
Look at the Alaska permanent fund. It’s essentially a state funded UBI system. It treats natural resources as a “common inheritance” rather than private loot, allowing citizens to share in the wealth of their own geography without a single cent of “socialist” income tax being required.
This is also being done in Norway they have a similar system where no company owns the oil or mineral rights. The ‘people’ do. It has just surpassed $1 trillion and it will ensure every Norwegians have a healthy source of income similar to what UBI.
Sam,
They evade the question as they know it is yet another failed policy as history has pointed out, time and time again.
But this time it will be different!!!!
Some additional evidence,
Recipients of universal basic income work fewer hours, are less productive
“The results of this study should surprise no one,” said Brian Balfour, senior vice president of research with the John Locke Foundation. “When you pay people not to work, people will choose less work. The decrease in productivity resulting from nonwork lends itself to economic stagnation which makes everyone worse off.”
https://www.carolinajournal.com/study-recipients-of-universal-basic-income-work-fewer-hours-are-less-productive/
Bad News for Universal Basic Income
“Researchers found that giving people $1,000 every month for three years resulted in decreased productivity and earnings, and more leisure time.”
https://reason.com/2024/07/25/bad-news-for-universal-basic-income/
Upstatefarmer nobody evaded the question. I answered it for Sam.
As for your studies.
The July 2024 OpenResearch study, often termed the “Sam Altman study,” found that $1,000 in monthly UBI led to a slight reduction in hours worked. However, many economists argue this 1.3-hour weekly decline is not a flaw, but rather a shift in priorities toward improved work-life balance and increased flexibility, rather than increased laziness. Critics also note that the study’s three-year, temporary nature prevented participants from making major, permanent life changes. For more, read the study findings at OpenResearch.
Upstatefarmer, here’s an overview of what the study found.
Recipients didn’t just “quit.” They became 10% more likely to be actively searching for a job compared to the control group.
They were more likely to report that “meaningful work” was an essential condition for any job they would accept.
The cash provided the “breathing room” to reject exploitative, dead-end roles in favor of a better “fit”.
Recipients increased their spending on supporting others (family and friends) by 26%.
Much of the “leisure time” cited
by critics was actually used for childcare, home errands, and medical needs—essential human labor that Turley’s “Guinan jobs” model often ignores as “non-work”.
Brian Balfour’s claim that this leads to “stagnation” assumes that the only valuable human activity is hours spent in a traditional job. If those “fewer hours” are traded for braces for a child, a college degree, or a healthier, sober home life, the long-term economic return for the republic is significantly higher than 1.3 hours of minimum-wage labor.
No, Turley did not argue total independence.
Folks, is where George makes up lies hoping to lure Olly into his lie.
Then those spend the day spewing 1,000 words attacks on each other.
The time you old farts waste here is unbelievable.
And what’s the point, gratify your decrepit egos?
Anonymous,
It’s cute that you’ve managed to mistake “logical extrapolation” for a lie, but if you’re going to act as the self-appointed referee of this “waste of time,” you might want to bring more than a basic name-calling kit.
Turley’s entire thesis—explicitly citing the Founders and Adam Smith—is that “true freedom requires economic independence from government.” If you can’t see how arguing against a safety net in the face of total AI automation is a push for total (and fatal) independence, that’s a reading comprehension issue, not a “lie.
“The danger is that politicians will react predictably and try to subsidize jobs that are no longer viable and industries that are being dramatically downsized.” The only jobs that will be protected and subsidized will be the public sector unions who control all the blue cities and states. Mayors and governors are powerless figureheads in California, a state controlled by teachers and other government employee unions. As such, the public schools which are a totally obsolete business model from the 1800’s will continue to run and comically overfunded well into the 21st century. If the wagon wheel makers and candle wick creators had a public sector union in 1850, none of us would have cars or light bulbs in 2026….
With Chevron threatening to close its last two refineries in California, we may need wagon wheel and candle makers again!
I have been following this over the past few years.
At first, it was a AI generated video of actor Will Smith eating spaghetti. It was grotesque. A year later, it was a video of a birthday party for a elderly woman. The only thing that gave it away as AI generated, the flames on the candles were blowing in all directions and the peoples fingers were off. Too long or too short.
Just recently watched a AI short video and it was nearly impossible to tell it was AI generated. The company that created Tilly Norwood, a AI generated actress, estimates they can eliminate 80-90% of production costs using AI for movies.
Modeling, like pretty people modeling cloths, that is another industry that is getting hit. Some company in Spain paid for a AI generated model. They scan in the clothing, then put it “on” her. No make up. No lighting. No photographer in the traditional sense. No having to deal with models who show up late, or not at all, or the prima donna attitude. Just click and select from the pull down menu. Their “model” makes the company some $20-30k a month.
Wife and I were discussing this the other week. We noted how Applebee’s has hand held like tablets at each table where you order everything through it and pay through it. Then someone, a “runner,” brings you, your drinks and food. We figured they were able to eliminate 60% of the wait staff. We theorized in the near future a new class of restaurant dinning will emerge where upscale or fine dinning will mean people will be willing to pay for a human to wait on them. There is a local farm to fork restaurant we like to go to, support. One of the reasons is we get our “usual” waitress who is a lovely person, knows us fairly well. It is the experience and not just the food we are paying for. We always tip her well.
A gas station replaced the human ran registers with the scan and pay kiosks. We noted the change in the energy in the place. Like, there was no energy. No one talked to anyone.
Your point?
Aristotle observed that the citizen should be molded to suit the form of government under which he lives.
Professor Turley’s warning about the emergence of the “kept citizen” reflects that same principle, because citizens are always being formed by the conditions around them.
If we do not intentionally cultivate the knowledge and independence required for self-government, the circumstances of dependency will inevitably form a different kind of citizen.
So you’re saying Aristotle is the progenitor of AI modeling?
Olly,
It is a curious misreading of Aristotle to suggest that ‘molding’ a citizen requires keeping them on the edge of economic ruin. Aristotle’s Politics argues that the aim of the state is to allow for eudaimonia (human flourishing), which requires a certain level of external goods and leisure.
Professor Turley’s fear of the ‘kept citizen’ misses a fundamental psychological reality.
Independence isn’t cultivated by desperation. A citizen constantly preoccupied with basic survival is ‘molded’ by anxiety and short-termism, which is the antithesis of the stable, deliberative mind required for self-government.
If we are to follow the Aristotelian logic that conditions form the citizen, then the condition of economic security is precisely what allows a person to move beyond the ‘servile’ state of worrying about their next meal and into the ‘independent’ state of civic participation. We aren’t ‘cultivating independence’ by denying people a floor; we are simply ensuring that only the wealthy have the ‘independence’ to be heard.
To suggest that a modern safety net is what ‘corrupts’ a citizen—rather than the crushing weight of systemic poverty—is a profound misunderstanding of both Greek philosophy and human nature.
Looks like the Karen feud …
Who is going to buy all of these cheap products if everybody is broke?
wall street incentive is to maximize profit… in today’s world they are given printed trillions to gamble on their money spinning! The Federal Reserve and US Gov have printed $30 Trillions since 2008.
Time for a 1% TAX on the GROSS of all wall street trades or moving money offshore.
Today Wall Street has NO incentive to GROW companies…they can just front run stocks and bonds for no purpose…no business needed.
Example Richest man in NJ…front runs stocks/bonds/commodities for a living, owning them for a pico-second…no investing in growing a business needed!
So are you saying that we should deconstruct Wall St., kill the profit motive, and turn American finance it over to AI? I know you’re not sayimg that, but maybe AI would work. The only problem we can’t let liberals program the AI model.
I’m really waiting for a sales pitch on how to front run stocks and bonds. With no money down!
“The Federal Reserve and US Gov have printed $30 Trillions since 2008.
…
Time for a 1% TAX on the GROSS of all wall street trades or moving money offshore.”
You have plausibly identified a likely factor in the demise of our culture, but your proposed solution is ignorant and ridiculous. Why wouldn’t it make much more sense to address the root problem that you identified by eliminating the ability of DC’s plutocrats to subsidize “Wall Street” via monetary policy? Of course, that was very likely a deliberate slight of hand on your part, as there is a proliferation of disingenuous jerks who do not want government power rolled back to Constitutional norms, merely redirected to achieve their personal goals.
Tax anything and u get less of the taxed activity. Every time.
What about taxed products?
Have you ever taken time to read the SEC enforcement cases?
And your point C.?
Let’s see, AI is causing job losses. The problem, it is a problem, will accelerate. We will need fewer humans.
Deport every single illegal. That way we can get more Americans off the dole and back to work. Some of the generationally idle will resist working but hunger is a great motivator.
I think it was Princeton U in about 2017 that estimated that there were 22M illegals in the US. Biden’s puppeteers let in 10-15M. We have at least 30-40M we can kick out. Do it now.
And it isn’t just a working man’s problem. White collar jobs are being eliminated. Halt the H1-B and F1 and related programs, put Americans to work. I found H1-Bs were more numerous than exceptional.
Invest in America’s human capital, don’t let them just rot away because it looks cheaper to import replacements. Let the corporate abusers of the H and F programs learn a lesson in loyalty(yeah, right). Let foreign nations deal with their own problems instead of exploiting us. America First.
If the low level jobs AI is supposedly taking, how is it possible then to put those removed from “the dole” into a nonexistent jobs?
Having trouble reading? We will free up jobs by deporting 30-40M illegal aliens. This will also reduce the burden on social services since a large percentage are on some gorm of support.
Having trouble dealing with a couple facts it seems?
If they’re illegal, those 30-40M do not have jobs. A number you obviously made up. And how to kick them out when that plan isn’t currently working out for you white supremacists.
You said so yourself that they are on the “dole”, as are millions of Americans. Off welfare then suddenly we have trillions to invest. In human capital? You think current demographics support that? And then those trained/educated Americans, where do you intend to put them? Service robots at Amazon? Build drones ? More like sweeping floors.
Then the political factor. You think the political status quo is going to get better? I didn’t want to call you stupid, but you certainly proved it yourself.
Anonymous, are you saying that illegals aren’t working here? If they are not working, your claim, then how do they eat, put a roof over their head, drive, use a phone, deal with medical expenses and cloth their kids for school? Oh, if they don’t work I guess they must get money from the rest of us!!!!
Your point is useless unless you can answer my question.
In all that vindictive it somehow obscured any questions. And sorry, I don’t speak stupid. Get it translated. Thank you!
Ok, let me dumb it down for you. You stated that illegals don’t work, I replied that if they don’t work who supports them. Pretty simple, even for you.
That particular anon has a problem comprehending the effective continuum of numbers between ALL and NONE🤣🤣🤣 ps – yeah, I know, the number is an integer but, like higher quantum states, it looks continuous.
In MN weren’t over half of the Somalis on public assistance of some sort?
So if we deport them ALL our public support costs decrease, including welfare, sec 8, snap, e-room visits, schools etc. Some percentage of those not on public support are occupying jobs that belong to Americans who would be mentally and physically better off working than sitting around.
***My bad, it was Yale in 2018
https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/yale-study-finds-twice-as-many-undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates
Add to that the Biden caravans paid for by us funding corrupt NGOs, and the unknowns and I think we easily top 30M. Time to go back, people.
If Democrats can find a way to get AI robots to vote for them, they will throw human workers to the wolves and focus on helping AI robots to replace humans everywhere.
You watch too much TV.
The character played by Whoopi Goldberg in Star Trek:TNG was named in homage to legendary speakeasy queen Texas Guinan.
The Luddites had all the same fears. A booming economy need consumers. Consumers need jobs to earn money to consume. Firing everyone won’t work. Middle management are the jobs at the most risk. Only time will tell what jobs survive what ones don’t and what new jobs we haven’t even thought of yet will be created. The only thing for sure, is the communist will try to take advantage of it all with their same old tired lies and failed polices. The communist will also eliminate millions of workers by killing them and imprisoning them, history has taught us that. Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Castro, and the list goes on.
Communist’s failed policies? Got any concrete examples? Didn’t think so.
I have one: Peoples Republics of China. A rags to riches story run by blood thirsty and murdering communists I guess.
As for those millions killed, can you put into perspective how AI will kill millions and imprison millions?
What did you put in your coffee this morning?
It was by adding a limited form of capitalism to Mao’s economic catastrophe that the Peoples Republic of China was able to dig itself out of destitute economic poverty. Look it up, genius.
Seems you failed to understand the adage: Rags to riches. Look it up genius.
More trade schools is the answer.
Robots will eliminate the need for trade schools.
And I suppose a robot will fix my plumbing?
Oh, and build a deck onto my house? And strip and re-shingle my roof? Oh and, make babies?
” Oh and, make babies?”
Making babies is in the same category as carpentry trade occupations? Who knew? Nitwit.
Its seems you don’t grasp English grammar. “Oh and, …” is used in a sentence to join two contrasting or opposing thoughts, typically connecting two independent clauses (complete sentences with a subject and verb). It signals a CONTRAST, EXCEPTION or UNEXPECTED RESULT.
You must be a carpenter, got hit in the head one too many times.
The construction that you explain is not an example of good grammar.
Says you? Then analyze it. Instead of whining.
You are correct. This has been brought to the forefront recently as it should be. It is a reverse of the statement by a democratic president that cancelled the pipeline. “They can learn code.” The physical presence in the trades will not go away. I recently read an article where robots built a concrete house. They claimed it could be done in the future in 10 days. The design was small and simple communist style. Unfortunately the article only addressed the positives of the robotic structure not the working of the interior finish. Who did the electrical, the plumbing, the cabinetry, set the windows and doors? People in the trades did it. In addition there will always be someone in power, (think someone like Putin, AOC, Bernie or the other squad members), who will not live in the standards that they demand of their minions. They will want the house that the robots cannot build.
HEAT. You may not remember, but only a few decades ago, people would frequently discuss the excessive heat generated by electricity production. “It would destroy the planet,” was the rallying cry for the environmentalists.
Not any more, as the full discussion is about doubling or tripling power production, particularly to feed AI. In short AI is an energy hog.
Every job replacement by AI implies a great deal of heat is part of the replacement. The Industrial Revolution had the same problem, but it wasn’t a factor back then. Now it is. The cost of heat must be factored into this AI/Robotics revolution.
One could certainly measure the relative costs of human heat vs AI heat for the same job. It seems certain that the climate crowd will find this issue and discover a new tax in there somewhere. Thus, the BTU factor is reborn.
Heat huh? You sure about that? I don’t see any references or sources, simply states “decades ago’.
A legend in your own mind.
This reminded me of ddonaldallen.
Zerohedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/wisconsin-man-who-killed-parents-fund-satanic-trump-assassination-attempt-sentenced.
Always thoughtful, always insightful, always respectful. Thank you Prof. Turley for your distinguished and outstanding thought leadership.
Counselors, psychiatrists, nurses, guards, police and teachers will be in great demand as we house woke in prisons and mental institutions across our land. We will import wackos of their type from all over the world, creating demand for spectacular achievements in massive construction projects.
Whew …
cops with an android partner. Another show I liked canceled after one season by Fox
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2654580