-Submitted by David Drumm (Nal), Guest Blogger
B.E.S.T., Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, is the organization, formed by Richard Muller, Professor of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley and self-proclaimed climate skeptic, to analyze temperature data. B.E.S.T. has received a total of $623,087 in financial support, with the largest contribution, $150,000, coming from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. B.E.S.T. directly addressed concerns including urban heat island effect, poor station quality, and data selection bias.
Their results: “Global warming is real.” Before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Muller testified that “we see a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups.” That similarity can be seen in the graphs below.
The issue of temperature stations in the U.S. located near buildings, in parking lots, or close to other heat sources has been raised by climate change skeptics such as Anthony Watts. Muller testified:
Did such poor station quality exaggerate the estimates of global warming? We’ve studied this issue, and our preliminary answer is no.
The Berkeley Earth analysis shows that over the past 50 years the poor stations in the U.S. network do not show greater warming than do the good stations.
Thus, although poor station quality might affect absolute temperature, it does not appear to affect trends, and for global warming estimates, the trend is what is important.
Regarding the urban heat island effect, the study concludes that:
The urban heat island effect is locally large and real, but does not contribute significantly to the average land temperature rise. That’s because the urban region of the Earth amount to less than 1% of the land area.
Anthony Watts is a weather-caster turned global warming skeptic who stated, “I’m prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong.” That was in March. Now, Watts “consider[s] the paper fatally flawed.” Watts’ reaction moves him from the category of global warming skeptic to global warming denier. Watts has gained a certain amount of fame by claiming that the temperature data was flawed. If he had accepted the B.E.S.T. results as promised, his celebrity status would be lost.
H/T: Zingularity, LA Times, Brad Plumer, Ron Chusid.
Bdaman,
Have fun at your game. I’ll be watching the classic Big Ten matchup of Michigan State v. Nebraska — GO GREEN!
Elaine,
Re your comment on creationism: great minds think alike…
The video that Anthony Watts does not want you to see: The Climate Denial “Crock of the Week”
By Joe Romm on Jul 29, 2009
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/07/29/204427/the-video-that-anthony-watts-does-not-want-you-to-see-the-sinclair-climate-denial-crock-of-the-week/
Excerpt:
This is the video that Anthony Watts demanded YouTube take down. This is what the former TV weatherman who runs a leading anti-scientific website, WattsUpWithThat, is afraid to let the public see:
There you are Bdaman… hello!
First off, Best’s results have credibility (even before peer review) as they go against his previously held belief (I believe that one of the exceptions to hearsay is a statement against one’s interests — at least if “Law & Order” didn’t mislead me — and similarly a scientist reporting something that contradicts their hypothesis has additional credibility as well). Most (virtually all, I believe) of the research done at the behest of people and companies with a vested interest in having their pollution subsidies continue (the right to pollute without paying for it) is only published when it agrees with their position. In this case, I think that publishing the results before they were peer reviewed may have been necessary (to avoid the study being buried).
As to numbers — I would point out that a large number of (ignorant) Americans don’t believe in evolution, but that doesn’t make the cintelligent designists any more correct… Climate change is going the same way — fewer and fewer people who understand the science (or understand science in general) can deny that anthropomorphic climate change is real.
p.s. Al Gore is not a scientist so critiquing his movie, while it may contain errors, doesn’t affect the scientific argument.
That was a reply to Slartis assesment miss Elaine.
Come on Slarti tell us how important peer review is.
Sorry got to go Big Day Here.
Largest outdoor Cocktail party in the country today. Google it
Bdaman,
“Less people today believe in it than in the past.”
And that proves what? I’d say it proves that the propaganda machines paid for by the Kochs and other climate-change-denier folks have been very successful.
BTW, lots of folks in this country believe that the Earth is about 6,000 years old and that humans and dinosaurs co-existed.
Wait til you find out about Mueller’s wife. This all could be slight of hand. While Mr Mueller was taking money from Koch. What was Nrs. Mueller doing. Inquiring minds want to know.
From the release
What Berkeley Earth has not done is make an independent assessment of how much the observed warming is due to human action.
http://berkeleyearth.org/Resources/Berkeley_Earth_Summary_20_Oct.pdf
So yes the world has warmed over time but even though they are the BEST they cant tell you why.
Speaking of the ever shrinking community of climate change deniers, I wonder when Bdaman will comment here…
Less people today believe in it than in the past. Just like less people today believe that Al Gore knows what he is talking about
First off the BEST study HAS NOT BEEN PEER REVIEWED nor has it BEEN PRINTED IN A JOURNAL. Clearly sicence at it’s best.
No one that I know disputes that the Globe has warmed over the years. The question is how much and causation.
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Yet Berkeley Earth’s results, as described in four papers currently undergoing peer review, but which were nonetheless released on October 20th,
http://www.economist.com/node/21533360
The above is what my son is working on.
Watts may hold on to his celebrity status with an ever shrinking community of climate change deniers, but he threw his integrity out the window…
Muller, on the other hand, is probably never going to see Koch money again — or have his scientific integrity questioned. Seems like a good deal to me.
Speaking of the ever shrinking community of climate change deniers, I wonder when Bdaman will comment here…
OS,
What do facts have to do with some folks perspective?
“If he had accepted the B.E.S.T. results as promised, his celebrity status would be lost”
I bet this guy Watts doesn’t realize that his mentality will morph this report into an autopsy for civilization if his sentiment prevails.
The history of global warming science as well as the originators of the Watts mindset is in a video here.
It was presented by a professor at UCSD to the south of Berkeley.
“Koch brothers accidentally fund study that proves global warming:”
That’s right up there with this one also.
“Mr. Limbaugh’s defense of the Lord’s Resistance Army, “
Well done David!
OS,
Amen! Those facts keep getting in the way!
I very much admire Muller. It takes intellectual integrity, genuine curiosity and ethical integrity to do what he did and openly publish the results and speak out. Good for him!
I notice the deniers and skeptics have less and less to work with. The walls are closing in on them. Facts overrunning propaganda. Pesky things, those facts.
Climate Skeptics Take Another Hit
—By Kevin Drum
Fri Oct. 21, 2011
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/10/climate-skepticism-takes-another-hit
Nal,
Here are links to some articles I found on this subject when I was doing follow-up to my post on the Mercatus Center:
Climate Change Deniers Abandon ‘Befuddled Warmist’ Physicist Who Came Around On Global Warming
BRIAN BEUTLER OCTOBER 22, 2011
TPMDC
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/10/climate-change-deniers-abandon-befuddled-warmist-physicist-who-came-around-on-global-warming.php?ref=fpa
*****
Koch brothers accidentally fund study that proves global warming:
The latest global warming results confirm those from earlier, independent studies by scientists at NASA and elsewhere that came under fire from skeptics in an episode known as ‘climategate’.
By Pete Spotts, Staff writer / October 21, 2011
Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2011/1021/Koch-brothers-accidentally-fund-study-that-proves-global-warming