-Submitted by David Drumm (Nal), Guest Blogger
B.E.S.T., Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, is the organization, formed by Richard Muller, Professor of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley and self-proclaimed climate skeptic, to analyze temperature data. B.E.S.T. has received a total of $623,087 in financial support, with the largest contribution, $150,000, coming from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. B.E.S.T. directly addressed concerns including urban heat island effect, poor station quality, and data selection bias.
Their results: “Global warming is real.” Before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Muller testified that “we see a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups.” That similarity can be seen in the graphs below.
The issue of temperature stations in the U.S. located near buildings, in parking lots, or close to other heat sources has been raised by climate change skeptics such as Anthony Watts. Muller testified:
Did such poor station quality exaggerate the estimates of global warming? We’ve studied this issue, and our preliminary answer is no.
The Berkeley Earth analysis shows that over the past 50 years the poor stations in the U.S. network do not show greater warming than do the good stations.
Thus, although poor station quality might affect absolute temperature, it does not appear to affect trends, and for global warming estimates, the trend is what is important.
Regarding the urban heat island effect, the study concludes that:
The urban heat island effect is locally large and real, but does not contribute significantly to the average land temperature rise. That’s because the urban region of the Earth amount to less than 1% of the land area.
Anthony Watts is a weather-caster turned global warming skeptic who stated, “I’m prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong.” That was in March. Now, Watts “consider[s] the paper fatally flawed.” Watts’ reaction moves him from the category of global warming skeptic to global warming denier. Watts has gained a certain amount of fame by claiming that the temperature data was flawed. If he had accepted the B.E.S.T. results as promised, his celebrity status would be lost.
H/T: Zingularity, LA Times, Brad Plumer, Ron Chusid.
I don’t have to force you to do anything, Bdaman. If someone allegedly debating about an issue cannot make their arguments or are otherwise failing to persuade the audience, it takes very little effort to win other than pointing out the inadequacy of their arguments and presentation. You’re failing to do anything other than run off at the ill-informed mouth all on your own. You are making yourself look like a propaganda regurgitating scientific ignoramus though. So if that was your goal instead of convincing people of the truth of what you say, good job.
Roger, What ? do you think that was the first time Texas had a dust storm?
bdaman:
“Really Roger
To be quite fair, EVERYONE should wait until the PEER REVIEW process is complete. To forgo it and publish what BEST did was a rush to judgement.”
What???? YOU are the one who quoted Judith Curry!
You making persistent claims and refusing or failing to meet the burden of proof in the light of overwhelming evidence against and overwhelming informed and educated consensus on the matter of your claims is how propaganda works.
No your just dismissive of what I present. Mostly because I link to Briepart.
Irregardless
The world’s ten deadliest floods occurred when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
24 of the deadliest tornado’s happened when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
The strongest and deadliest US hurricanes occurred when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
Nine of the world’s ten deadliest hurricanes and typhoons occurred when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
In the worlds history CO2 has been higher up to 20 times of what it is today but we are all still here.
bdaman:
You do realize that when CO2 was at those levels, the seas were 200 feet higher than they are now, right? That our current floras will not survive those hot conditions?
Are you saying that those conditions would not result in an end to civilization as we know it?
My God, man, we are just beginning to see the effects of global warming and we are already seeing crop yields falling around the world. We are starting to see food riots as of last year, and this year there will be significantly less crops harvested than last.
Did you see the Youtubes of dust storms in Texas? That dirt was formerly inches of crop soil from our nations breadbasket that blew away. Wheat prices have already spiked. Cattlemen are literally walking away from the ranches in Texas and Oklahoma.
Open your eyes, man. Start reading some other sources.
No, actually it is necessary for you to prove it to me.
Make me 🙂
Judith Curry has her feet firmly planted on the denialist side.
This is what they said about Mueller before he became a switch hitter. Now he is your poster child.
No, actually it is necessary for you to prove it to me.
You are making the claims. You bear the burden of proof (a burden of proof you fail to meet in a rather spectacular fashion by the way). That’s how debate works.
You making persistent claims and refusing or failing to meet the burden of proof in the light of overwhelming evidence against and overwhelming informed and educated consensus on the matter of your claims is how propaganda works.
So unless you’re simply engaging in propaganda propagation, you do need to prove it to me (and the other readers as well).
It is so funny how a week after BEST produced this we end up with an historic snow storm dumping mass amounts of snow across the country. Go talk to those people about global warming.
than 95% of the climate sciences
This is another made up lie. 95% do not believe nor support. We’ve already been through this exercise and it’s been completely debunked.
Repeat a lie often enough and the lie becomes the truth.
Gene it is not necessary for me to prove anything to you. You’ll figure it out. How bout that Historic Snowstorm. Why don’t you dazzle us with some tipping point stuff and how global warming actually makes it snow more.
What on the world have you been smoking? Warming has continued apace the past 15 years. Indeed, it is tracking higher than even the IPCC worst case model.
Not according to Judith Curry she’s been a climate scientist for over 30 years and was the second named co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers.
and
Yesterday Prof Muller insisted that neither his claims that there has not been a standstill, nor the graph, were misleading because the project had made its raw data available on its website, enabling others to draw their own graphs.
However, he admitted it was true that the BEST data suggested that world temperatures have not risen for about 13 years. But in his view, this might not be ‘statistically significant’, although, he added, it was equally possible that it was – a statement which left other scientists mystified.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html#ixzz1cHg3LPC1
Bdaman,
Until you prove to me that you’re smarter and better informed than 95% of the climate sciences professional community, you’re just adding to the hot air.
Judith Curry has her feet firmly planted on the denialist side. To use her statements to bolster criticism of the BEST data just shows how biased bdaman’s sources are. Good grief.
Really Roger
To be quite fair, EVERYONE should wait until the PEER REVIEW process is complete. To forgo it and publish what BEST did was a rush to judgement.
bdaman:
What on the world have you been smoking? Warming has continued apace the past 15 years. Indeed, it is tracking higher than even the IPCC worst case model.
You know damn well that the past decade was the hottest on record, surpassing the decade right before that for the honor. Why , ffs, do you jettison those simple facts in favor of some idiocy that there has been no warming over the past 15 years? Get your blinders off.
And stop throwing irrelevant (supposed) factoids around as if they have some relevance to the issue.
If you think that global warming is not happening, then you have an intellectual obligation to answer a very simple question: Where has all that extra heat gone?
Consensus of the community based on evidence is the final arbiter of science, not mediocre 80′s rock bands.
That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position.
If you persist in thinking that anthropogenic global warming isn’t real or that there is some controversy about that truth in the scientific community?
The world’s ten deadliest floods occurred when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
24 of the deadliest tornado’s happened when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
The strongest and deadliest US hurricanes occurred when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
Nine of the world’s ten deadliest hurricanes and typhoons occurred when CO2 was below 350 ppm.
In the worlds history CO2 has been higher up to 20 times of what it is today but we are all still here.
Judith Curry has her feet firmly planted on the denialist side. To use her statements to bolster criticism of the BEST data just shows how biased bdaman’s sources are. Good grief.
Berkeley earthquake called off
Overall, we are underwhelmed by the quality of Berkeley effort so far — with the exception of the efforts made by Robert Rohde on the dataset agglomeration and the statistical approach. And we remain greatly disappointed by Muller’s public communications (e.g. his WSJ op-ed) which appear far more focused on raising his profile than enlightening the public about the state of the science.
The only non-mediocre rock band of the 80s, The Cars:
Weak.
Consensus of the community based on evidence is the final arbiter of science, not mediocre 80’s rock bands.
That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position.
If you persist in thinking that anthropogenic global warming isn’t real or that there is some controversy about that truth in the scientific community?