Politics, Science

B.E.S.T. Results

-Submitted by David Drumm (Nal), Guest Blogger

B.E.S.T., Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, is the organization, formed by Richard Muller, Professor of Physics at the University of California at Berkeley and self-proclaimed climate skeptic, to analyze temperature data. B.E.S.T. has received a total of $623,087 in financial support, with the largest contribution, $150,000, coming from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. B.E.S.T. directly addressed concerns including urban heat island effect, poor station quality, and data selection bias.

Their results: “Global warming is real.” Before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, Muller testified that “we see a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups.” That similarity can be seen in the graphs below.

The issue of temperature stations in the U.S. located near buildings, in parking lots, or close to other heat sources has been raised by climate change skeptics such as Anthony Watts. Muller testified:

Did such poor station quality exaggerate the estimates of global warming? We’ve studied this issue, and our preliminary answer is no.

The Berkeley Earth analysis shows that over the past 50 years the poor stations in the U.S. network do not show greater warming than do the good stations.

Thus, although poor station quality might affect absolute temperature, it does not appear to affect trends, and for global warming estimates, the trend is what is important.

Regarding the urban heat island effect, the study concludes that:

The urban heat island effect is locally large and real, but does not contribute significantly to the average land temperature rise. That’s because the urban region of the Earth amount to less than 1% of the land area.

Anthony Watts is a weather-caster turned global warming skeptic who stated, “I’m prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong.” That was in March. Now, Watts “consider[s] the paper fatally flawed.” Watts’ reaction moves him from the category of global warming skeptic to global warming denier. Watts has gained a certain amount of fame by claiming that the temperature data was flawed. If he had accepted the B.E.S.T. results as promised, his celebrity status would be lost.

H/T: Zingularity, LA Times, Brad Plumer, Ron Chusid.

204 thoughts on “B.E.S.T. Results”

  1. They do and I’m glad to hear it.

    Ms. Elaine models are showing a monster coming next weekend. At the moment looks to cross over the Great Lakes Region and up into Canada it’s looking pretty scary.

  2. Elaine:

    You posted the article about the Killfish.

    You take one small fish and say since this fish is having a problem the Gulf is messed up. I was just curious about the fish’s position in the food chain.

    How are the worms, shrimp, algae, crabs and other marsh dwellers doing? How are the animals at the bottom of the food chain doing? Maybe this particular fish has low tolerance to oil or the other chemicals used in the clean up?

    You posted 2 articles linking to the same study. One by a lawyer who has a financial interest in an oil damaged Gulf.

  3. Bdaman:

    do you mind providing us with some quotes from Mrs Curry.

    From Influence of Urban Heating on the Global Temperature Land Average Using Rural Sites Identified from MODIS Classifications where Prof. Curry is second author:

    This is not statistically consistent with prior estimates, but it does verify that the effect is very small, and almost insignificant on the scale of the observed warming (1.9 ± 0.1 °C/100yr since 1950 in the land average from figure 5A).

    From Earth Atmospheric Land Surface Temperature and Station Quality in the United States where Prof. Curry is second author:

    … we conclude that poor station quality in the United States does not unduly bias estimates of land surface average monthly temperature trends.

  4. Bdaman,

    I think we both agree on the definition of climate. Don’t we?

    P.S. My daughter and son-in-law arrived at our house this morning. They may be spending a day or two with us. They lost electrical power last night. We love having them and our new granddaughter here with us. Sometimes negatives transform themselves into positives.

  5. Slarti:

    from your statement you apparently think recession is undesirable. I disagree, I think they are both necessary and desirable to cull the heard.
    Thereby preventing long term depressions or anemic economic growth.

  7. Bdaman,

    The Earth revolved around the sun before people were cognizant of that fact. People who observed the sun rising in the east and setting in the west thought the sun revolved around the Earth. Their observations did not make the sun revolve around the Earth–just as Copernicus did not make the Earth revolve around the sun. They had no control over the movement of celestial bodies.

  8. Even Prof. Judith Curry does not dispute these BEST findings.

    do you mind providing us with some quotes from Mrs Curry.

  9. From BEST: “Did such poor station quality exaggerate the estimates of global warming? We’ve studied this issue, and our preliminary answer is no.”

    Key word preliminary

  10. Nal none of the four papers of the BEST study has been peer reviewed.
    None of the four papers have been accepted by a journal.

  11. Bron1, October 30, 2011 at 4:07 pm

    Slarti:

    you want recessions in a free market. they keep the system stable.

    They re-allocate capital to efficient users of said capital.
    ——————-\ 😉

  12. Bron,

    You just proved that you have absolutely no reading comprehension (to disprove my point, please explain my position on the desirability of recession). Why would I take a book recommendation from someone who clearly doesn’t know how to read (or is just dishonest)?

  13. I cannot get MY point across to you that one day of weather in an area is not necessarily indicative of that area’s climate.

    No Ms. Elaine I understand what you are saying and your right.

    Ok but one day of weather plus another plus another, plus another, is how you begin to get averages. Ya with me. You can’t have averages with out a daily first.

    An area’s climate is not up to the people who record daily observations

    but it is those people and instruments who record the daily observations that in the end give us the picture of what the climate is.

    You can not determine what any weather related mean average is without doing the recording first. That recording starts on a daily basis. They don’t say hey we are gonna measure once a week. They measure daily. Without the daily you have nothing.

  14. From Bdaman

    The complex phenomenon that drives up temperatures is called the urban heat island effect.

    From BEST: “The urban heat island effect … does not contribute significantly to the average land temperature rise.”

    From Bdaman

    He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

    From BEST: “Did such poor station quality exaggerate the estimates of global warming? We’ve studied this issue, and our preliminary answer is no.”

    That’s two of Bdaman’s arguments that have been proven wrong. Even Prof. Judith Curry does not dispute these BEST findings. Unsupported arguments that are later proven wrong, Bdaman’s got more, I’m sure.

  15. Bron,

    “is the Killfish a baitfish for the larger predators? How are the Pogey doing?”

    I’m not an ichthyologist. Maybe you should ask one the questions you posed to me.

  16. Bdaman,

    I cannot get MY point across to you that one day of weather in an area is not necessarily indicative of that area’s climate. We have climactic regions on this planet whether or not someone is keeping daily observations of them. An area’s climate is not up to the people who record daily observations–unless, of course, those people can control the weather on a long-term basis.

    P.S. One day does not make a week…one week does not make a month…one month does not make a year.

  18. Ms Elaine I cant explain it to you any better.

    You can not have climate without daily observations. Climate is made up of daily weekly monthly and yearly observations.

    Which comes first a day or a week.

    That is why the National Weather Service issue’s a DAILY CLIMATE REPORT.

    Yours can be found here

    Daily Climate Report (CLI)
    Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6)
    Record Event Report (RER)
    Monthly Weather Summary (CLM)
    Regional Summary (RTP)

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=box

  19. Elaine:

    is the Killfish a baitfish for the larger predators? How are the Pogey doing?

    Herring are a main food source for larger animals and so that would be a problem.

  20. Slarti:

    you want recessions in a free market. they keep the system stable.

    They re-allocate capital to efficient users of said capital. Preventing recessions is actually a bad thing. By preventing periodic recessions you make the problem much worse when the system “overheats” and so it takes longer to repair.

    Read my book; Recession: A Prophylactic Capital Reallocation. Or how periodic recessions prevent depressions and put people back to work quickly.

    Recession prevents labor from getting screwed by screwing inefficient capitalists instead. Depression screws labor.

    Marxists dont know jack about really helping the poor.

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