-Submitted by David Drumm (Nal), Guest Blogger
A recent article in the Daily Mail, and picked up by other media, claims an increase in Arctic ice foretells a cooling trend. The article boasts of a 60% increase in sea ice over the minimum that occurred in 2012. While the actual numbers from IARC-JAXA Information System (IJIS) show, as of yesterday, only a 50% increase, this is still a significant expansion.
Professor Judith Curry, climatologist and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, referred to the title as melodramatic and said of the content of the article: “the ‘cooling’ aspect has been overplayed.” Last year, University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins predicted that “there would be MORE Arctic sea-ice in 2013, compared to 2012.”
An important tool used in analyzing random data is the statistical phenomenon known as reversion to the mean, or regression to the mean. The extent of sea ice at the end of the annual melt, mid to late September, set a extreme minimum in 2012. Using reversion to the mean, it is more likely that the the extent in 2013 will be larger. Exactly what happened. The following graph indicates the variability of sea ice extent and the clear downward trend.
Cherry picking short-term results while ignoring long-term trends is a hallmark of misleading climate reporting. Long-term data needs to be analyzed to average out cyclical dependencies. There is a strong natural variability in sea ice extent and separating the natural from the greenhouse gases requires decades long timescales.
Climate science is an undertaking fraught with complex interactions and unknown cycles with unknown effects. It will take time and money to improve our understanding. However, improvement is mandatory if we are to be responsible conservators of our world.
Climate scientists estimate the amount of sea ice loss due to greenhouse gasses is between 50-70%.
H/T: Dana Nuccitelli, Steven Novella, Climate Dialogue, Alexis Sobel Fitts, Phil Plait.
So Dredd when NOAA says, “The bar charts below indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.”
NOAA is wrong ?
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png
Gene H. 1, September 18, 2013 at 11:36 am
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A single cell infected with a pathogen does not mean a person is ill and yet when that infection spreads to enough of them and overwhelms the immune system a body manifests disease.
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Excellent point and insight.
Hey Joe, where you going with that junk in your head?
The tornado categorization system was recently updated to include a better way to describe intensity of tornadoes:
(Wikipedia). You are a McWeatherman in a McClimateman bikini.
IOW naked.
I have a database from NOAA of all tornado events since 1950.
It includes a ton of information about each of those ~58,169 tornadoes up to 2012 (time, latitude, longitude, time on ground, etc., etc. 28 points of data about each one).
There is no doubt that the graph of CO2 increase in the atmosphere, land, and oceans parallels the increasing damage to The Global Climate System.
That damaged climate system will continue to produce increasingly destructive weather and other environmental events around the globe.
It doesn’t matter that you still have fun at the ho-down there in Muskogee, because it is not about you, it is about us.
Weather is not climate
And yet “climate”, a noun meaning “the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period”, is aggregate weather.
A single cell infected with a pathogen does not mean a person is ill and yet when that infection spreads to enough of them and overwhelms the immune system a body manifests disease.
The error you are making, besides using the Koch-inary to redefine words, is a variant negative form of the fallacy of composition that ignores how statistical trending is expressed over large data sets.
Not very good at thinking unless you’re told what to think, are you Joe?
That was a rhetorical question.
Hey Dredd this is you
A record F5 event took place this year, 2013:
Isn’t it interesting that a record setting tornado (widest ever) as well as a new record of two EF5 tornadoes in one short time frame (Weather Channel) happened during [2013]?
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Your suppose to look at the long term trend Dredd. Weather is not climate. It appears to me by looking at the graph there were more F-3 to F-5’s prior to 1975. You know when CO2 was below the 350 PPM that your buddy James Hansen says is the safe zone.
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png
Seems that if my memory serves me correctly, some other village idiot posted this video as some kind of proof of Global Warming while singing his song It’s getting hot in here, now take off all your clothes.
It turns out it is a weather event that happens every year during melt season.
Everybody knows weather is not climate
Ok Mr Two tropical cyclones making landfall at the same time LOL
Your suppose to look at the averages over the long term trend Dredd
Weather is not climate
pete 1, September 18, 2013 at 1:33 am
Joe Blow
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bold statements. any sources?
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Voices in his head … a.k.a. Cheezus.
Joe Blow 1, September 18, 2013 at 9:41 am
Denying that something is happening, when it is actually happening, has a name. Its called delusional.
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You are too far gone for self-medication and diagnosis.
Take the advice of the adults in the room and seek professional help.
OS:
It was the word of the day today from Oxford. I couldnt pass up a great word like that. It is new to me but I can well imagine that you have had articles posted in more than one anthology.
Denying that something is happening, when it is actually happening, has a name. Its called delusional.
Major Hurricanes are not increasing
F3-F5 Tornadoes are not increasing
Droughts are not increasing
Floods are not increasing
Fires are not increasing
Global warming has paused for the last 15 years
Longest stretch in recorded hurricane history to go without a major hurricane Cat 3 or higher striking the U.S. Coast Almost 8 years
Total Global Sea Ice increased by 19,000 Manhattans in 2013
P.S.you may want to give some of your advice to professor Wieslaw Maslowski
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
“In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
AND I’ll make a prediction. Now that the summer melt season is over and the ice has spread out due to a series of Arctic Cyclones there will be even more ice next year as it all refreezes over the long winter ahead.
Bron,
It is early, and there may be more entries later, but you win the Internets so far. You used a word I have not thought about in years: “florilegium.”
Well played.
this has been a great thread, I propose we put together a florilegium of the better posts and make it availabe for sale.
Denying that something is happening, when it is actually happening, has a name. Its called “whistling past the graveyard.”
You can claim shit doesn’t stink all you want. Still smells like shit.
You can tell your handlers there WILL be an expense related to global warming, one way or the other. Just how expensive it is, is up to them. They can pay now or pay a lot more later.
Good news coming out of Australia. The voters finally got tired of listening to the lies and elected someone who is a denier.
Mr Abbott says he will immediately instruct the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet to prepare legislation to repeal the carbon tax.
He also says incoming treasurer Joe Hockey will instruct the board of the Clean Energy Corporation to cease operations.
It is also expected that the Climate Change Authority and the Climate Commission will be abolished.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/newshome/18981930/tony-abbott-to-have-carbon-tax-repeal-legislation-drawn-up-immediately-after-being-sworn-in/
Pete you can go back up to here
Nal 1, September 17, 2013 at 10:45 am
a few sources start at this point and continue for the next several post others I have provided upstream.
The only thing increasing is ice at both poles. 19,000 Manhattans this year after being told the Arctic would be ice free in 2013 by the worlds top climatologist.
Pete,
I suppose lies could be considered bold statements.
Joe Blow
1, September 17, 2013 at 11:38 pm
Here’s an original thought for you
Major Hurricanes are not increasing
F3-F5 Tornadoes are not increasing
Droughts are not increasing
Floods are not increasing
Fires are not increasing
Global warming has paused for the last 15 years
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bold statements. any sources?
Larry:
It’s kind of like what my wife and I remember for our respective younger days. When I was just finishing 2nd grade, she was graduating from High School. (we met when I was 31) When I was in high school, she was living in West Germany. Sometimes our paths don’t meet as is the case when I make a joke about some pop cultural thing that happened in HS for me, she doesn’t get it. and vice versa.