Politics, Science

Arctic Sea Ice Capades

-Submitted by David Drumm (Nal), Guest Blogger

arctic sea iceA recent article in the Daily Mail, and picked up by other media, claims an increase in Arctic ice foretells a cooling trend. The article boasts of a 60% increase in sea ice over the minimum that occurred in 2012. While the actual numbers from IARC-JAXA Information System (IJIS) show, as of yesterday, only a 50% increase, this is still a significant expansion.

Professor Judith Curry, climatologist and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, referred to the title as melodramatic and said of the content of the article: “the ‘cooling’ aspect has been overplayed.” Last year, University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins predicted that “there would be MORE Arctic sea-ice in 2013, compared to 2012.”

An important tool used in analyzing random data is the statistical phenomenon known as reversion to the mean, or  regression to the mean. The extent of sea ice at the end of the annual melt, mid to late September, set a extreme minimum in 2012. Using reversion to the mean, it is more likely that the the extent in 2013 will be larger. Exactly what happened. The following graph indicates the variability of sea ice extent and the clear downward trend.

ArcticEscalator2012_med

Cherry picking short-term results while ignoring long-term trends is a hallmark of misleading climate reporting. Long-term data needs to be analyzed to average out cyclical dependencies. There is a strong natural variability in sea ice extent and separating the natural from the greenhouse gases requires decades long timescales.

Climate science is an undertaking fraught with complex interactions and unknown cycles with unknown effects. It will take time and money to improve our understanding. However, improvement is mandatory if we are to be responsible conservators of our world.

Climate scientists estimate the amount of sea ice loss due to greenhouse gasses is between 50-70%.

H/T: Dana Nuccitelli, Steven Novella, Climate Dialogue, Alexis Sobel Fitts, Phil Plait.

350 thoughts on “Arctic Sea Ice Capades”

  1. Thanks Nal and the favorite part I LOVE TO POINT OUT is this

    ” With increased national Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the U.S., the total number EF1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 to EF5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These are the tornadoes that would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar charts below indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.”

  2. For those interested in the facts of tornado frequency:

    Historical Records and Trends:

    The bar charts below indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the stronger tornadoes over the past 55 years.

    If you look at the bar chart, “little trend” appears to be an accurate assessment.

  3. Oh there’s the guy who says a Typhoon and a Hurricane hitting at the same time is proof of nothing.

    LMAO Dredd

    IPCC Report will be published soon and the FACTS ARE

    Major Hurricanes are not increasing
    F3-F5 Tornadoes are not increasing
    Droughts are not increasing
    Floods are not increasing
    Fires are not increasing
    Global warming has paused for the last 15 years

    Those are the facts boys which ever way you want to slice it and dice it. But the science is settled LOL

  4. There is an article about Joe Blow:

    Gee, has it been a week since The Mail on Sunday posted a climate change denial article by David Rose? Time flies.

    Last week, Rose wrote an error-laden article about global warming, which was immediately debunked by many people. This, however, has not stopped Rose from continuing in that vein; on Sunday he wrote another article where he just plows on through, piling one misleading claim on top of the last.

    I won’t try your patience (or mine for that matter) listing every error in it, but there are two that need pointing out, especially since one is the basis of his entire article.

    (Slate: Another Week, Another Climate Change Denial Article).

  5. OS,

    Yep. That kind of trolling relies upon scientific ignorance to flourish. Too bad this was the wrong crowd to play that strategy with.

  7. Gene, the troll wouldn’t know the difference between climate variability and climate change if he were drowning in downtown Miami.

    The stupid, it burns. Once again into the breach is NOAA, the official weather service of the United States:

    Temperatures measured on land and at sea for more than a century show that Earth’s globally averaged surface temperature is experiencing a long-term warming trend.

    Source, with interactive chart and more detailed information:
    http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

    The vast majority of climate scientists are concerned that the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide is causing the planet to warm. Likely consequences of global warming include sea level rise, shifting precipitation patterns, expansion of areas affected by drought, increasing numbers of severe heat waves, and more intense precipitation events.

    Scientists are also concerned that carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean from the atmosphere is increasing the acidity of seawater. This change in ocean chemistry interferes with the ability of marine plants and animals to build their shells, ultimately threatening a reorganization of the entire marine food chain, which could lead to a mass extinction event.

    Source, with an interactive graph showing a steady co2 rise since the early days of the industrial revolution.
    http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

    Facts are pesky things, and even the great wealth of the energy maggots won’t make them go away.

  9. Your boss is going to get jealous if you start playing with other Kochs.

    Besides, you mistake me for someone who doesn’t understand science.

  10. Only skin that gets lotion at your house Gene is the foreskin 🙂 Wax on Wax off Mr. Miagi

  12. The only people that have there heads buried in the sand are you dupes. Remember we are now at 400 PPM of Atmospheric CO2. After 350 PPM, according to James Hansen, one of the worlds leading climatologist, we are suppose to be experiencing run away global warming where hurricanes,tornadoes, droughts, floods, and fires are ALL suppose to increase and the Arctic will be ice free in 2013.

    Instead we are in the longest stretch in recorded hurricane history to go without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. coastline will soon be 8 years as we have already passed the peak of hurricane season and the Cape Verde season is effectively over.

    Tornadoes F3-F5 have been declining for the last 50 years

    Droughts and Floods have been declining for the last 50 years with the exception of this year for floods as we just saw in the SW and Colorado however the forecast was that the SW was now in a permanent drought and the SE United States shattered rainfall records this year especially South Florida where the Army Corp of Engineers opened the flood gates on the Okee causing a major ecological disaster for Indian River and the adjacent ocean and gulf stream.

    Fire Season (acreage burnt) has been one of the lowest this year and the acreage burnt over the last ten is decreasing. Besides the fact that some trees need canopy fires to release their seeds to reproduce.

    And of course the Arctic and Antarctic has increased by 19,000 Manhattans this year.

    As far as warming yes it is still warming but it is now a FACT that there has been a pause in the warming for at least 15 years. In an effort to explain the pause Kevin Trenberth was the first to theorize where the warming has gone. He and s few others now claim that the warming has manifest in the deep ocean below 700 meters.

    I find it very interesting that this same person was the same who said this in the Climate Gate e-mails

    “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”

    So you can call me and others deniers if you want but the facts are the facts. We are at 400 PPM and all the doomsday forecast that have been made over the years including Paul Ehrlichs have not come to fruition in fact the EXACT opposite is occurring as CO2 increases.

    Here’s a good read for you as this is exactly how you and your ilk treat others who don’t agree with your point of view regardless of when FACTS are presented. You resort to personal attacks.

    Mr. Ehrlich was more than a sore loser. In 1995, he told this paper: “If Simon disappeared from the face of the Earth, that would be great for humanity.” (Simon would die in 1998.) This comment wasn’t out of character. “The Bet” is filled chockablock with Mr. Ehrlich’s outbursts—calling those who disagree with him “idiots,” “fools,” “morons,” “clowns” and worse. His righteous zeal is matched by both his viciousness in disagreement and his utter imperviousness to contrary evidence. For example, he has criticized the scientists behind the historic Green Revolution in agriculture—men like Norman Borlaug, who fed poor people the world over through the creation of scientific farming—as “narrow-minded colleagues who are proposing idiotic panaceas to solve the food problem.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324165204579026631593290784.html

  13. Joe,
    If you volunteer to dig that hole, I will buy you a shovel. It will only have to be a few thousand cubic miles in size.

    Sheesh!

  14. Here’s how you start to feed people. Re-posted from up thread

    Here’s a novel idea. If they are so worried about sea level rise why not dig a big hole in the Saharan Desert pump sea water into it and build desalinization plants to produce potable water that could be used to provide irrigation. This way the people of Africa could grow their own food and plant trees to remove excess CO2. This way they won’t have to depend on USAID for bags of rice.

  20. Bron,
    You do not believe what the vast majority of scientists are telling you.
    Scientists don’t know what they’re talking about. They’re incompetent.

    You believe that science will find an answer to feeding 36 billion people.
    Scientists are miracle workers, and very competent.

    At the same time?

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