Mark The Date: Scientists Find 1.75 Billion Expiration Date On Earth

earth-screensaver_largeFor those who are fastidious in scheduling on their iPhone planners, you might want to set one of those ten-minute alerts for 1.75 billion years to address any remaining items on your to-do list. Scientists have determined that, absent a nuclear holocaust, catastrophic asteroid or new William Shatner album, the Earth could continue to support life for at least another 1.75 billion years.

Indeed, the calculation is not exactly precise. With a strong wind at our planetary back, we could go as long as 3.25 billion years before the Earth will travel out of the solar system’s habitable zone and into the “hot zone.” We have only been around for 200,000 years, that is still a fairly generous amount of time.

The research can be found in the journal Astrobiology where the total time for the Earth in the habitable zone is calculated at 7.79 billion years. (Earth is estimated to be about 4.5 billion years old unless you are a creationist where you still believe we are only a few thousand years old.)

119 thoughts on “Mark The Date: Scientists Find 1.75 Billion Expiration Date On Earth”

  1. Ha ha first I read that as master baiting, you know what you do Gene when your not posting comments to make yourself look smart. LOL

  2. Tony C. 1, September 21, 2013 at 8:07 am

    … Even if an asteroid hits us tomorrow and wipes us out, I blame politics; we have had half a century to work on protections against that and because of politics we have dithered it away. The moment we knew asteroid strikes could be an extinction level event we should have been working to spot them, survive them and ultimately deflect them.

    Humanity is collectively mentally ill, so focused upon immediate rewards that we don’t care if it kills us to get them.
    Yep, the Alien’s nickname for humanity on Earth is “Joe Blow.”

    As to asteroid mass-extinction events and politics, I agree.

    However, some of it was establishment scientists politicking with the data by Joe Blow Hard types:

    A day or so ago a distinguished group of scientists determined that the theory which says a piece of an asteroid became a meteorite which caused the extinction of the dinosaurs was more likely to be reality than the competing theory.

    The competing theory had been that volcanism, in the form of hyperactive eruptions in India, caused the dinosaur extinction.

    What do State Crimes Against Democracy (SCAD) have to do with a chunk of asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs?

    The answer is: a brave individual.

    The brave individual, about 50 years ago, noticed that the scientific community was kowtowed, afraid, and timid about even seriously considering the theory that a chunk of asteroid caused the extinction of the dinosaurs.

    Simply put, he noticed that there was tyranny of dogma within the scientific world, and that such tyranny would lead us to a bad place.

    Therefore, “de Grazia dedicated the whole September 1963 issue of American Behavioral Scientist to the issue” concerning the part that catastrophes, like the chunk of asteroid (meteorite) strike, have played in the evolution on this planet.

    (SCAD, links removed, see original). It took decades to figure out that asteroid impacts have had a major part to play in the way life got to the place it is.

    No doubt your blame of politics is still valid, because “Humanity is collectively mentally ill” as you say.

    We are collectively “Joe Blow.”

    He is our collective intellect proving that a lethal mutation has taken place in our cognitive system (What Kind of Intelligence Is A Lethal Mutation?).

  3. It’s most certainly not about your master’s bidding either, Joe.

    Play with Kochs on your own time.

  4. At least I’m posting FACTUAL info with links instead of making stuff up to make it look like I know what I’m talking about. LOL

  5. It’s not about Unicorns or Aliens but you dupes don’t have any problem posting videos about that stuff.

  6. You do realize this isn’t a thread about the weather or fossil fuels, don’t you, Troll?

    Or are you paid by how many threads you purposefully disrupt?


    Seventy-five years ago today, a major CAT 5 hurricane narrowly missed New York, but devastated Long Island and New England as a CAT 3 Hurricane. Had it made landfall 70 miles to the west, it would have destroyed New York City.

    However Super Storm Sandy BARELY A CAT 1 hurricane is a sign of Global Warming LOL

    Over 700 Dead and the militia given orders to shoot to kill because of widespread looting.|||frommm|||fromdd|||toyyyy=1938|||tomm|||todd.

  8. Hey Mr New Tornado classification you should try inventing a new class called EF Hutton you can be like your buddy Al Gore who says we are gonna have CAT 6 hurricanes.

    When they sound the alarm that an EFHutton tornado is coming maybe people will listen to you. LOL

  9. Joe Blow 1, September 21, 2013 at 9:33 am

    Thank God for the increase in CO2

    Yep, once Cheezus gave us oil superiority, heavenly bliss flowed to all.

  10. Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center says,

    “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”

    He means weather which leads to climate after a long reviewed statistical gathering of weather conditions of time LOL

  11. OS,

    The sun absolutely has weather and (as the process of stellar evolution illustrates) climate. That it appears relatively stable is a function of deep time and the transience of the human lifespan. That being said, our sun is fairly stable and normal as far as stars go (G2V on the main sequence) although not nearly the most common type of star. Some stars are very violent and unpredictable, so much so that life as we know it simply wouldn’t be possible in any planetary systems they might have.

  12. And poor Joe cannot tell the difference between a single solar storm and dozens of decades of meticulous observation and measurement. Yes, the sun has weather, of sorts, as well.

  13. Gene,
    The deniers, paid or not, remind me of a folk song about why you never see a unicorn these days. The first time I heard this it was a live performance by Scottish folk singer, Carl Peterson.

  14. Our last big flare up of the sun happened back March 2012

    “This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center. “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”

    Contrary to what others have said here that the sun is a constant NASA seems to think differently. Right Gene ?

  15. We were having a nice adult conversation about space exploration until the Koch suckers showed up . . .

  16. Tony,

    Solar radiation is the biggest problem, especially during solar flares, but your selective shielding idea won’t work because of cosmic rays. Although not as “abundant” as EM radiation from our nearest star, those high energy particles (mostly protons and alpha particles, not truly “rays” in the EM sense) are mitigated by both the solar wind and deflection from Earth’s own EM field. They can still cause many of the effects EM radiation does such as random mutation and screwing with electronics in addition to being reactive with atmospheric gases, creating unstable isotopes in a process called spallation (a form of nucleosynthesis). They are also practically omnipresent so deep space is no refuge. Unless a ring world had some sort of EM field comparable to a planet to deflect cosmic rays it, it would have to be a sealed system else the artificial atmosphere would eventually have chemistry and ablation issues. We really need some kind of EM shielding technology that isn’t “physical”, i.e. dense (and usually heavy) materials or ablative materials, in order to make space habitation/travel more amenable to humans.

    Or we need to bioengineer ourselves to be better suited for high radiation environments (and low/variable gravity as well although we can simulate gravity with rotation). And at that point, we need to ask what is a human? Even if engineered, we are talking speciation. Add to that the isolation of space and eventually “we will become the aliens”.

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly in the Sagan/Hawking “we’ve got to leave the cradle” camp. But without some significantly better shielding technology, any long term habitation is going to need to be planet-side where we can take advantage of natural EM and atmospheric protections (even if we have to terraform to make them more habitable) from solar and cosmic radiation.

    Space habitats are going to be stop-gaps for a very long time until (if) we reach the technological sophistication to built a true Dyson ring (or a Niven ring depending on preference in nomenclature) – a proposition that is considerably more difficult and larger in scale than the smaller structures you are talking about. We are a planet-bound species. We evolved in a gravity well and with environmental protections from radiation. This creates some very challenging problems for both space travel in general and certainly for long term habitation in orbital/trans-orbital structures.



    You’re welcome. 😀

  17. My favorite take away paragraph from the spectator article.

    “And while we are constantly reminded that ‘most scientists are agreed on climate change’, it is remarkable how many of the most prominent figures warning of climatic Armageddon are not themselves scientists. The chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, is a railway engineer. Al Gore, who shared a Nobel prize with the IPCC for his film of climate change, An Inconvenient Truth, is a failed US presidential candidate. Lord Stern, whose 2006 report provoked the then environment secretary David Miliband to say ‘the science is settled’, is an economist. Few scientists would make such a claim.”


    An Engineer, the Failed president of the railroad job and a Lord of the flies

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