Poll: Fifty-Six Percent of Voters Say They Will Definitely Not Vote For Trump

One of the most perplexing aspects of the White House strategy over the last two years is the total focus on Trump’s base with little apparent concerns for independents and moderate Republicans who have reacting poorly to the confrontational politics. A recent poll shows just how precarious this is becoming for 2020. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll this week shows that 56 percent of Americans said they would definitely not vote to re-elect Trump in 2020. Only 28 percent said they definitely will vote for him. Thia mirrors a previous NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll which found that 57 percent of voters will not back Trump in 2020. Citing the President’s polling numbers, the Texas Republican Party is reportedly now concerned that they could lose the state in 2020.

 The Washington Post poll shows a hardening opposition to Trump with 56 percent of voters saying that they will not consider voting for Trump.

Polling has uniformly shown Trump around 37 percent in terms of favorability.

This does not mean that the Democrats cannot still supply the answer as they did in 2016. Trump was the most unpopular Republican nominee in history, but the Democrats picked the most unpopular Democratic nominee in history. The result was an upset.

Nevertheless, the approach of the last two years and continued controversies is clearly taking its toll on both Trump and the Republicans in looking toward 2020.

78 thoughts on “Poll: Fifty-Six Percent of Voters Say They Will Definitely Not Vote For Trump”

  1. ” that 56 percent of Americans said they would definitely not vote to re-elect Trump in 2020.”

    I hate to inform you Professor Turley that in 2016 60% of the people didn’t vote so if one polled an even distributed population of 10, six or 60% would not vote for Trump or any candidate that opposes him.

  2. Only 56%? On a poll taken in the middle of a government shutdown? So you say there’s a chance. 😉

    Of all the Democrat contenders listed so far, none got out of single digits. That means 90%+ wouldn’t vote for candidate X or Y or Z. By the way, Kamala Harris’ signature plank of eliminating private health insurance is already being walked back. So much for principles. Reminds of this Buddy Ryan quote: If you listen to the fans, you’ll be sitting up there with them.

    President Trump is in the catbird seat. Democrats will be eating their own for the next year and a half as they try to lay claim to the nomination. How low will they go? Almost time to stock up on popcorn.

  3. Since when does Turley stoop to the credibilitiy of mainstream media/network “polls” ???????? Almost all media polls get their results from their respective viewers/followers; NO poll is even close to valid unless it discloses the entity retained to conduct the poll, requesting party, the paying party, the QUESTIONS asked of participants, and how it selected participants. EVEN THEN, “poll herding” can orchestrate results by replacing participants whose responses are not wanted, with the same number of participants whose responses are more in line with the pollster’s agenda

  4. And we all know how accurate those polls can be. Haha. Let’s not give up on good thing for our country. Any replacement for Trump will send our country in reverse. Big time. Kiss your paycheck goodbye, if not your job. Kiss your doctor goodbye, if not your health. Kiss your safety goodbye, if not your life. Kiss your education goodbye, if not your schools. Kiss your transportation goodbye, if not your car. Kiss the stock market goodbye, if not your portfolio. Kiss your religion goodbye, if not your church. Kiss the Supreme Court goodbye, if not law and order all together. Kiss world peace goodbye, if not your peace of mind
    .
    Build the wall. Without it, we don’t have a country any longer. Period.

    1. Thanks for reporting, comrade. Say hi to uncle Vlad and stay warm.

      this is to “what do you want? The Colonel issued me this handle” better

    1. What are the remaining 44% thinking about?
      ***************************
      Yes those happy with rising wages, historically low across-the-board unemployment and less taxes are obvious loons compared to the hyper-self-impressed, hyper-intellectualized Chicken Littles of the Left.

      1. The employment figures were trending that way already, Trump inherited that. Of course he found a way to screw nit up with his Trade War and Shutdown. Groth is slowing, the tax cut only has a significant impact for the wealthy. He’s screwed up all our alliances across the world and created one’s with Dictators. He has made me feel sorry for Venezuela who have placed their hopes in someone whose word is meaningless. Yes, some have reason to love what he’s doing because he reflects their values. Their pocketbooks, not so much. He and Wilbur Ross are still trying to figure out why people not getting checks was anything more than an inconvenience?

        1. The employment figures were trending that way already, Trump inherited that.

          ********************

          Sure he did. Obama presided over the slowest recovery in history. Obama rode a plow horse. Trump made is thoroughbred. But hey, Obama was “trending,” just like all the horses behind Secretariat were “trending.”

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/08/01/obama-wins-the-gold-for-worst-economic-recovery-ever/#26d53b7a3ca2

          1. mespo – The pace of recovery hasn’t really changed that much (unless you want to look at recent meager job increases and increases in unemployment). It takes time to change an economy’s direction which is why we’re just now seeing the impact of Trump’s Trade Wars and the shutdown. Federal contractors and some of their employee’s may never recover. The negative impact on the economy is in the Billions. What he’s done to the debt for the sole purpose of making the rich richer is atrocious. If you breathe air or drink water, you’ll see the impact of letting corporations free from regulation. He alone knows about the death of ISIS, North Korea’s denuclearization and Iran’s breach of nuclear compacts. He decides to withdraw from Syria on his own without infoming our allies or even our military. He’s a dangeous fool who has been fotunate enough not to encounter any real emergencies, besides those he created.

            1. Anyone can look up the data themselves.

              Taking the last 10 months of the Obama administration (to rid ourselves of the election) and the first 10 months of the trump administration the U6 tells the story.

              Unemployment (U6) fell from 9.9 to 9.5 under Obama and from 9.4 to 7.9 under Trump which is over 3 times the drop seen under Obama.

              The actual curve looks like a check mark with Obama on the downhill and Trump on the uphill. There are many other indices that demonstrate the same type of lousy economic performance under Obama.

              Unfortunately when Enigma compares the two Presidents he is using colorimetric analysis. Spectrophotometry and colorimetry are useful in determining the properties of materials but not the content of one’s character.

    2. Lowest unemployment in fifty years. Never got a job from a poor person. Billionaire is not a four letter word. They hire people. All my sons work for billionaires. When the billionaires are hit with high taxes, then I’d worry for my sons. There’s no trickle up.

    3. I’m not a billionaire, I’m not a corporation. I have to characterize my situation (both my wife and I work) as middle-class. Our taxes dropped. Our economic circumstances here in fly-over country are the best they have been since Bill Clinton was President. Trump, not always a warm and fuzzy guy — often a bit of a blowhard, in fact — has presided over a real economic turnaround. The real winners?: Minorities and Corporations who can come back to the US now that Corporate taxes are more globally competitive.

      Even those of us in the middle are enjoying a few thousand dollars more in our pockets compared to prior years. If some “rich” wage earners received a larger tax cut that those of us in the middle, well, that seems about right, after all they have been (and still are) paying the most taxes.

      I say cut the taxes, cut the size and cost of government — the swamp won’t drain itself, cut off it’s funds (not literally, of course). Trump has had the temerity to follow the economic education I received in the mid ’70’s — if you want to help the economy and taxes are high, cut taxes, have a watchful Fed ready to stab either the brakes or the accelerator and stand back.

      Now, along comes Bernie, Kamala, Elizabeth (gonna have me a beer), and AOC who all seem to want to give us ALL Medicare and give us all free college tuition. Bankruptcy would result from socialistic, progressive, ultra-liberal policies like that. Trump has — so far — enlarged my bank account.

      It appears that you may be among the ~20% of the population (tax payers) who actually didn’t benefit from the Tax Act of 2017. You may, perhaps, live in NY or NJ and have very high property taxes (perhaps because you are very wealthy).

      According to Forbes, “if you live in New York or New Jersey, you’re chances of being among the 10% to 15% of taxpayers who experience an immediate tax increase are much higher than elsewhere in the country. Sure, you get a lower rate on your income, but if you earn more than $200,000 (if single, $400,000 if married), you also:

      lose your personal exemptions,
      are not eligible for the enhanced Child Tax Credit,
      lose your state and local income and property tax deductions in excess of $10,000
      are not eligible for the 20% pass-through deduction discussed above if you are in a personal service business
      Net those items together, and many accountants, lawyers, and doctors living in high-tax states will be paying more in 2018 than they would have under current law.”

      Even in flyover country not everyone got a cut — but 80% or perhaps 85% are taking more home in their paychecks.

      Trickling down is a good thing — maybe not as good as we would want, but it beats what we used to have to put up with.

  5. In my opinion, the biggest disappointment with Trump is that he has not even pretended to be President of ALL the people – only some of the people. And that fraction is now getting smaller and smaller.

  6. Reading these comments, I wonder if Professor Turley feels like the world is a tuxedo and he’s a pair of brown shoes.

  7. There might be a 3rd Party candidate in addition to Hillary and Trump. That Starbucks guy might turn the election to himself or to Trump. If Biden runs and he beats the other Demorats then he will be of similar age as Trump and therefore age will not be a factor unless a voter goes for the 3rd Party guy. I do not think that Trump or Biden are too old.

    It is my belief that Trump will get tired of the whole thing and bow out. His wife is likely telling him that it is time to retire to Mar A Lago. Younger wives often give their husbands a rash of itShay about their various aspects which the wife relates to his age. The man gets sick of being criticized by wifeypoo and does what she wants in the next stage of life.

    The economy and stock market will swing voters. If the market is up then Trump could win again.

    1. Do you REALLY think Hillary wants to go through all this again? Besides, I can’t imagine her winning the Democratic nomination this next time around. At this early stage, my bet would be on Harris. But it’s still very very early. Heck, Trump and Pence could get impeached and removed from office, and we might have President Pelosi !!!

    2. “I do not think that Trump or Biden are too old.”
      Trump will be 74 in 2020, and Biden will be 78.
      Bernie will be about 80, and he might give it a go again in a crowded field of Democrats trying to get the nomination.
      Given the ages of some of the other candidates, Trump might capitalize on the theme of his “youth” if he runs in 2020.

  8. They must have polled the WAPO and PBS newsrooms again. Any word on the poll of the warden’s popularity among the inmates? When will people learn that polling isn’t descriptive; it’s manipulative?

    1. Pollsters are having terrible trouble constructing proper sampling frames, which has made poll results in general a great deal more unreliable than they were a generation ago. That’s when they’re above-board.

      This particular poll wasn’t intended to be used in gauging political tactics, so there’s no incentive there to seek out and find the most accurate data possible. It was intended for public relations, and we know perfectly well where the Bezos-era WaPoo stands. In forty years of reading poll results, I cannot recall a question being posed this way, so, yes, this is manipulative.

    2. mespo

      The times they are a changing. Here’s a comment that might give you a Ross Perot #9 migraine headache:

      “MSM tries to scare people by demonizing politicians and progressive ideas that the public actually support. Rather than explaining why certain policies would be a bad idea, they shout “Socialist, Leftist, Radical etc.” and trust that the public is too stupid to see through it all.

      . “Current frontrunner Kamala Harrisis far from reassuring. She’s a shrill (see the Kavanaugh hearings) quasi-socialist promising pie in the sky — Medicare-for-all, debt-free college, guaranteed pre-K, minimum basic income, confiscatory taxes — and she’s just getting started. Bernie and others will soon be following suit. Fauxcahontas already has, competing in a game of socialist one-upmanship. Even supposedly centrist Biden is playing along.”

      These policies are fine for most advanced countries, but the Koch brothers disagree.”

  9. It’s worth remembering Trump barely scraped by in 2016. Democrats need only to flip a few states to shift Electoral College numbers in their favor. Take that into account along with the possibility that many voters may simply sit 2020 out, and that we may see viable third and even fourth candidates on the ballot, and Trump faces an uphill climb without a lot to run on.

  10. One poll had a 95% chance of Hillary winning! Why is this dribble posted by Turley, surely he has something better to talk about ?? Of course Turley has to walk a fine line, he can’t be too critical or he will be shunned as so many before him. Fear is a mighty powerful motivator.

  11. Here’s the choice President Trump or Socialism, that’s the real question that should be polled and that’s what 2020 will come down to.

    1. A society can thrive only by striving for an optimal balance between rewarding excellence and caring for those who need help.

    2. How about Republican contenders Trump vs (say) Romney? I’m not so sure Trump can lock up the Republican nomination.

  12. At this point almost any story that has the word “poll” in it is dismissed as worthless by most people.
    Pollsters should conduct a poll on how many people actually believe poll numbers and one on how many people actually use poll numbers to decide who to vote for.

    CNN Politics
    CNN.com › 2016/10/23
    Presidential poll: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 12

    CNN’s Poll of Polls average has Clinton ahead 48% to 39%

    An ABC News poll shows Clinton leading Trump, 50% to 38%

    Huffington Post Oct 26, 2016
    The Polls — All Of Them — Show Hillary Clinton Leading

  13. It’s too early. There isn’t a second candidate. No third party candidates have been announced. Polls are unreliable. Gen Z isn’t added into the equation. I didn’t vote for Trump last time. Yet I will this time, provided he doesn’t go to war with a country the size of Rhode Island. I can see that the left won’t ever accept a loss. Hillary couldn’t win a rigged election. They have lost in the market place of ideas. Anyone who does there own research can see that the conspiracy with the Russians is in the laps of the leftists. Hillary gained $1.5 million from the Russians. Trump $0. Cursory knowledge and intellectual honesty is all one needs to figure this one out. In addition, their hysteria is unpalatable.

    1. I disagree. Trump has harvested tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars from Russian oligarchs. They keep buying up condos and penthouses in Trump properties. He still desperately wants to build Trump tower Moscow, which would require millions more in Russian funding.

  14. ABC? NPR? Not exactly unbiased sources so discount them. The important part is the consistent ignoring of the largest voting block that took the most votes as a group (40%) in 2016 and brought the Blue Wave in the mid terms to a laughabl escreeching halt when they should have picked up 20% more than they did.

    The Clintons 95% became 45% and the outsider who we ran as a Terminator whose job was to expose and destroy does much better in the polls that are not far left extremists in nature. While those of us in the true center are once again ignored. Fine by me when our voters are asked they make a habit of answer as pro registered Democrat Socialist liberal Progressively liberal .

    Which means your poll was exposed, raided, and used.

    Again our budget is still zero. but our results have been magnificently large.

    Watcha gonna do when we come for you again?

    Repeat the same excuses?

    Right now the only issue of importance to us is RBG’s replacement.. And guess what it isn’t your turn. So either one more of ours gets in or you get an eight seat court and a five to three majority.

    The only criteria is Nominate and Confirm. There is no requirement for approval from any outside group. No requirement for any senate committee no time limit to confirm and no time limit to nominate.

    Still want to file all those obstructionist suits? Facing the five three consequence? Watcha gonna do when we come for you the third time?

    1. There is also no time limit to hold a vote or even recognize the existence of a nominee. Just as there is no time limit for the Senate to schedule the trial phase of no matter how many voted for the impeachment phase.And no requirement to belong to a political party in order to vote or to tell the truth to a pollster. Or for a nomination to occur.

      Say? Who really is dong RBGs required work? RBG or her in house lackeys? She can’t be touched but they can.

    2. Michael, what do you imagine the results of an overwhelmingly Trump-installed Supreme Court would be? What sorts of decisions would you hope to see, specifically? Can you make up a list?

  15. “Controversies”

    They were pure fiction and have surfaced absolutely no evidence to substantiate

    So we are to believe by these Left Wing Polls that the American “Legal” Voters really believe in this unproven nonsense called controversies

    And therefore will not vote Trump back into office after President Trump got the American People back to work and put money back into their pockets

    By any chance…

    Are these the same polls that had Crooked Hillary winning the Presidency in 2016?

  16. What they say now to a pollster doesn’t matter. When faced with a choice between two candidates, they’ll choose the one who is best for themselves and their families. Trump is far from ideal, but most Americans who work for a living, pay taxes, and care about their country are not going to vote for Kamala Harris or some other radical socialist.

    1. Voters vote against the worst candidate, not for anyone. Three million more people voted against Trump than against Hillary. The biggest loser became President.

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