While there is a general view that the Trump Administration is in a free fall with ominous investigations and calls for impeachment, the polls show a different picture. Trump actually has not dropped with all of the bad press and is holding his base. Indeed, he is close to where President Barack Obama was at this time in his term. Moreover, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll,the polls shows people with a highly negative view of the socialist wing of the Democratic party and less than forty percent believe Michael Cohen. Those are all good signs for Trump even as the legal developments loom negatively on his future. Trump however is registering at a 46 percent popularity in the latest polling.
The bad news for Trump is that, just as his base is hardened, so is his opposition. He is down to just 4 in 10 of voters. Some 58 percent do not think Trump is telling the truth on the Russian probe and 60 percent disapprove of his recent national emergency declaration to build a border wall. This week the Republican controlled Senate may vote to rescind the emergency.
Yet, Trump remains steady at 46 percent of Americans approving of Trump’s job performance. That is actually a gain of three points since January. Forty-one percent already say that they will definitely or probably vote for him in 2020.
He holds an almost 90 percent popularity with Republicans at 88 percent though he is disliked by the same percentage of African Americans.
Forty-one percent of registered voters say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump in 2020. Obama by comparison showed 45 percent in favor of voting. Trump is actually doing better than Clinton at this point. Not surprising, the hardened opposition is higher with 48 percent saying that they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for the Democratic candidate. Obama had only 40 percent saying that they would vote for a Republican.
Yet, there is a disconnect between the polls and the coverage. For a president who has stumbled through a remarkably bad period of investigations and disclosures, Trump is faring pretty well. Frankly, few presidents could hold these numbers but Trump seems to have a lock on his base, his party, and many independents.
These polls are likely to have an impact on Trump continuing his confrontational approach to the investigations. While he is convincing few people of his own veracity, polls also show that people are wary of the Mueller investigation.
Trump often speaks of his infamous former lawyer Roy Cohn, who he seems to still hold in high regard. Cohn once said “I bring out the worst in my enemies and that’s how I get them to defeat themselves.” That still seems to be the strategy and frankly it may be working for Trump.