The CIA Report: Why a Low Confidence Finding is the Height of Hypocrisy

Every modern president seems to promise transparency during their campaigns, but few ever seem to get around to it. Once in power, the value of being opaque becomes evident. We will have to wait to see if President Donald Trump will fulfill his pledges, but so far this is proving the cellophane administration. Putting aside his constant press gaggles and conferences, the Administration has ordered wholesale disclosures of long-withheld files from everything from the JFK investigation to, most recently, the CIA COVID origins report. That report is particularly stinging for both the Biden Administration and its media allies, which treated the lab theory as a fringe, conspiratorial, or even racist theory.

Newly-confirmed CIA Director John Ratcliffe released the report, which details how it views the lab theory as the most likely explanation for the virus. Expressing “low confidence,” the agency did not reject the theory over the natural origins theory, which was treated as sacrosanct by the media and favored by figures like Anthony Fauci. (Other recent reports have contradicted the equally orthodox view on the closing of schools, showing no material benefit in terms of slowing the transmission of COVID).

The BBC reported that “the CIA on Saturday offered a new assessment on the origin of the Covid outbreak, saying the coronavirus is ‘more likely’ to have leaked from a Chinese lab than to have come from animals. But the intelligence agency cautioned it had ‘low confidence’ in this determination.”

The low confidence finding shows that the agency found the evidence fragmented and fluid. However, the point is that the natural origins theory and the lab theory were both viable theories. Neither was disproven or rejected. Other agencies like the FBI seemed to have a higher confidence in the lab theory over the natural origins theory.

Even a low-confidence finding shows the height of hypocrisy in Washington where politicians and pundits savaged any scientist who even suggested the possibility that the virus was man-made and likely originated in the Wuhan lab near the site of the outbreak.

This follows a recent disclosure in the Wall Street Journal of a report on how the Biden administration may have suppressed dissenting views supporting the lab theory on the origin of the COVID-19 virus. Not only were the FBI and its top experts excluded from a critical briefing of President Biden, but government scientists were reportedly warned that they were “off the reservation” in supporting the lab theory.

As previously discussed, many journalists used the rejection of the lab theory to paint Trump as a bigot. By the time Biden became president, not only were certain government officials heavily invested in the zoonotic or natural origin theory, but so were many in the media.

Reporters used opposition to the lab theory as another opportunity to pound their chests and signal their virtue.

MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace mocked Trump and others for spreading one of his favorite “conspiracy theories.” MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt insisted that “we know it’s been debunked that this virus was manmade or modified.”

MSNBC’s Joy Reid also called the lab leak theory “debunked bunkum,” while CNN reporter Drew Griffin criticized spreading the “widely debunked” theory. CNN host Fareed Zakaria told viewers that “the far right has now found its own virus conspiracy theory” in the lab leak.

NBC News’s Janis Mackey Frayer described it as the “heart of conspiracy theories.”

The Washington Post was particularly dogmatic. When Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark) raised the theory, he was chastised for “repeat[ing] a fringe theory suggesting that the ongoing spread of a coronavirus is connected to research in the disease-ravaged epicenter of Wuhan, China.”

Likewise, after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) mentioned the lab theory, Post Fact Checker Glenn Kessler mocked him: “I fear @tedcruz missed the scientific animation in the video that shows how it is virtually impossible for this virus jump from the lab. Or the many interviews with actual scientists. We deal in facts, and viewers can judge for themselves.”

As these efforts failed and more information emerged supporting the lab theory, many media figures just looked at their shoes and shrugged. Others became more ardent. In 2021, New York Times science and health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli was still calling on reporters not to mention the “racist” lab theory.

In Kessler’s case, he wrote that the lab theory was “suddenly credible” as if it had sprung from the head of Zeus rather than having been supported for years by scientists, many of whom had been canceled and banned.

As these figures were attacking reports, Biden officials were sitting on these reports. Figures like Fauci did nothing to support those academics being canceled or censored for raising the theory.

The very figures claiming to battle “disinformation” were suppressing opposing views that have now been vindicated as credible. It was not only the lab theory. In my recent book, I discuss how signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration were fired or disciplined by their schools or associations for questioning COVID-19 policies.

The suppression of the lab theory proves the ultimate fallacy of censorship. Throughout history, censorship has never succeeded. It has never stopped a single idea or a movement. It has a perfect failure rate. Ideas, like water, have a way of finding their way out in time.

Yet, as the last few years have shown, it does succeed in imposing costs on those with dissenting views. For years, figures like Bhattacharya (who was recently awarded the prestigious Intellectual Freedom Award by the American Academy of Sciences and Letters) were hounded and marginalized.

Others opposed Bhattacharya’s right to offer his scientific views, even under oath. For example, in one hearing, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) expressed disgust that Bhattacharya was even allowed to testify as “a purveyor of COVID-19 misinformation.”

Los Angeles Times columnist Michael Hiltzik decried an event associated with Bhattacharya, writing that “we’re living in an upside-down world” because Stanford University allowed dissenting scientists to speak at a scientific forum. Hiltzik also wrote a column titled “The COVID lab leak claim isn’t just an attack on science, but a threat to public health.”

One of the saddest aspects of this story is that many of these figures in government, academia and the media were not necessarily trying to shield China. Some were motivated by their investment in the narrative while others were drawn by the political and personal benefits that came from joining the mob against a minority of scientists.

The CIA report obviously does not resolve this debate, but it shows that there is a legitimate debate despite the overwhelming message of the media and the attacks on scientists. Of course, the same media and political figures responsible for this culture of intimidation have simply moved on. The value of an alliance with the media is that such embarrassing contradictions are not reported. At most, these figures shrug and turn to the next subject for groupthink and mob action.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

NB: This column was changed shortly after publication to add the link to the meaning of “low confidence” in the CIA report and to repeat that the issue is not which theory is correct, but that neither theory was found dispositive or invalid. Other media links were added as background.

148 thoughts on “The CIA Report: Why a Low Confidence Finding is the Height of Hypocrisy”

  1. Once you acknowledge that C-19 leaked from a lab, the next question is was that leak an accident or deliberate, and if the latter, were any Americans involved in a conspiracy?

  2. Anthony Fauci, disgraced “scientist”, announces “Da Bunk Awards’!

    Place your vote! Remember, being a bigot and/or incompetent does not disqualify any contender!

    Joy Reid
    Nicolle Wallace
    Kasie Hunt
    Drew Griffin
    Glenn Kessler
    Apoorva Mandavilli
    Fareed Zakaria
    Janis Mackey Frayer
    Raja Krishnamoorthi (making Illinois look even better, right JB?)
    Michael Hiltzik
    Kristian Andersen (have lab, will do anything for a grant)

    1. Sort of like choosing the best garbage can in the alley. One might be the best, but all are garbage.

      The saddest thing of all is that the MSM’s warped view of the world have not changed. In fact, it seems they are doubling down on their lunacy, if that’s possible.

      1. It is predictable that they will double down. That is what Cognitive Dissonance is all about. Notwithstanding that some of the ringleaders don’t believe it at all, but will lie for money, like Rachel Maddow.

        But anyway, that is what people do when their strongly held beliefs are disconfirmed. If they don’t reject the false belief, they double down on them.

  3. As one comedian said, it is as if a chocolate disease started in Hershey PA and the scientists tried to say that it was caused by a bat. We all knew in March 2020 that it was from the lab and this was just another obvious lie that the Bidens and the media ruined their credibility on. They said the Afghan pullout was a success when we could see it with our own eyes. They said inflation wasn’t happening when we all felt it every week, they said the border was secure when we say cities getting overrun with illegals and they swore up and down that Joe Biden was sharp as a tack and that VIDEOS of him doing what he always did were “deep fakes”.
    Now the media wonders why they are in the dumpster.

    1. It’s as if they used Orwell’s brilliant, prescient masterpiece “!984” as a how-to guide on how to run a country rather than the warnings it was meant to project.

  4. The Main Street Media, Biden Administration & all Gov’t agencies, WHO, UN, Democratic Party and its Left Wing policies, Globalist, Washington Elite have or had NO Creditability. Everything they touched or said in the last 4 years is all BS. Trump is exposing all of this.

    1. “Groupthink and mob action”, a motto for the Democrat/ProgressiveMedia/Academic Axis”, who claim to be “free thinkers” while marching in step on every question.

  5. This release by the CIA should not be taken as a vindication, but rather a return to the starting point of free and open debate. Abandon the idea our government should ever be trusted. That’s not cynicism, that’s reasonable skepticism.

    1. Now that we know that Joe Biden (through Hunter) and Tony Fauci were BOTH getting money from the Chinese, the picture becomes even clearer.

  6. OK, now that we have the “quo,” isn’t it time to establish the “quid”? The Biden crime family took in millions of dollars from China to do its bidding, and covering the origin of the COVID0-19 virus is just evidence of this unholy alliance. Let’s see what the top J-schools have to say now that many of their top graduates and frequent alums speakers have been deposed for being the paid hacks we knew them to be. Will lessons be learned, or will the professors fall back on, “Well, it was possible,” and ride out the storm while peddling the next scam? The accountability of the Biden Crime Family demanded by the public, and a primary reason for the election of Trump will not go away quietly but demands complete exposure. Besides the legislative fixes needed, the integrity of the media can only be righted by a complete telling of the story, warts and all.

    1. @jjc: The leadership of the Chinese communist party are master students of human behavior and that makes them master manipulators of human behavior. Although in 2019 Trump called Xi Jinping “his good friend”, I’m not sure the feeling was mutual. The CCP likely modeled, correctly, the havoc that would result in the West from a pandemic virus and that a likely result would have been a rejection of Trump in the November 2020 election resulting in a President Biden, a paid CCP stooge. Is this a conspiracy theory? Yes, it is. If true, would it be an act of war? Yes, it would be. I suspect the U.S. intelligence services have already considered this possibility and its probability and understandably will not make its findings known at this time. What can’t be explained is why so many in the mainstream media, both broadcast and print, went along with the Biden party line and charade unless operative threats were made by those in power. CCP stooge, indeed.

  7. There was no new information that drove the CIA’s change in assessment. The implication is that until now leadership did not want to conclude that the lab leak theory was likely correct. We need to know who decided this and why.

    For example, there were allegations that CIA analysts were bribed by leadership to fudge their assessment. And three DIA scientists were told to shut up when they assessed the lab leak to be the likely origin. There was also clear evidence of a conspiracy led by Farrar and Fauci, and the virologists they funded, beginning with their conference call January 31/Feb 1, 2020, to shut down the lab leak theory without a scientific basis. Did these things happen and why?

    I hope RFK Jr, Jay Bhattacharya, John Ratcliffe, Tulsi Gabbard, Pam Bondi and Kash Patel get to the bottom of all this.

  8. why did no one go to jail for the biggest crime in US history. The Russian Hoax Conspiracy?

    1. Pull that string and the whole government falls down. It involves all three branches and both parties.

      1. The Obama Coup D’etat in America is the most egregious abuse of power and the most prodigious crime in American political history. The co-conspirators are:

        Kevin Clinesmith, Bill Taylor, Eric Ciaramella, Rosenstein, Mueller/Team, Andrew Weissmann,

        James Comey, Christopher Wray, McCabe, Strozk, Page, Laycock, Kadzic, Sally Yates,

        James Baker, Bruce Ohr, Nellie Ohr, Priestap, Kortan, Campbell, Sir Richard Dearlove,

        Christopher Steele, Simpson, Joseph Mifsud, Alexander Downer, Stefan “The Walrus” Halper,

        Azra Turk, Kerry, Hillary, Huma, Mills, Brennan, Gina Haspel, Clapper, Lerner, Farkas, Power,

        Lynch, Rice, Jarrett, Holder, Brazile, Sessions (patsy), Nadler, Schiff, Pelosi, Obama,

        Joe Biden, James E. Boasberg, Emmet Sullivan, Gen. Milley, George Soros, John McCain,

        Marc Elias, Igor Danchenko, Fiona Hill, Charles H. Dolan, Jake Sullivan, Strobe Talbot,

        Cody Shear, Victoria Nuland, Ray “Red Hat” Epps, Don Berlin, Kathy Ruemmler, Rodney Joffe,

        Paul Vixie, L. Jean Camp, Andrew Whitney, Lisa O. Monaco, Fani Willis, Alvin Bragg,

        Matthew Colangelo, Merrick Garland, Juan Merchan et al.

        1. “We are five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America.”

          – Barack Obama
          ______________

          “We will stop him.”

          – Peter Strzok to FBI paramour Lisa Page
          ___________________________________

          “[Obama] wants to know everything we’re doing.”

          – Lisa Page to FBI paramour Peter Strzok
          ___________________________________

          “I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office — that there’s no way he gets elected — but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before 40.”

          – Peter Strzok to FBI parmour Lisa Page
          _________________________________

          “People on the 7th floor to include Director are fired up about this [Trump] server.”

          – Bill Priestap

    2. Because the people who promoted that conspiracy were in charge at every turn.

      1. “Obama wants to know everything we’re doing.”

        – Lisa Page to FBI paramour Peter Strzok

  9. how about we just cut 50% of federal spending…that would clearly remove 50% of criminal political activity!
    We need to STOP rewarding democrats for FAILURE

    1. Unfortunately, it’s not just one side of the equation. Take the money out of it and you may have a chance. Political positions are the highest paying jobs around!

  10. I said from the very beginning of this whole Covid hoax that it was a biological attack conducted by the Chi-Coms. It was an act of WAR designed to do the very things that happened. It worked and they got away with it, until now.

    1. COVID was bought and paid for by USA and Fauci like people working with the Chinese! Reminder Bidens took millions from China…and apparently no one but me cares!

      1. I respectfully disagree. The chicoms unleashed it in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs. Think about when the first cases were starting to be reported. The tariffs were imposed in March of 2018. The first cases of so called Covid were reported in the fall of 2019 with the first “official” case in the US in December’19. Now, your points about Biden being owned by the Chinese are accurate but that is a side issue to the act of war.

      1. We have all been waiting on you to tell us when you jump on that C-J130 Super Hercules airplane, parachute into Beijing and allow the CCP to see what they’re up against. pro-tip: it might go better for you if you went to Gaza and told them you’re a power bottom.

        1. Wally’s a squid, he’ll be on the swift boat with John Kerry steering the boat.

      2. Wally

        Oh wow, bro, boy, have I missed you. Where you been since Biden/Harris lost the election you swore they would win in a landslide, taking the Senate and Hhouse with large margins as well???

        And your twin brother Fish Wings, the other stooge that disappeared afetr the election. Where is he?

        1. They’re still here, just using different names…remember Oliver Reeder old chap?!:-)

  11. I would have to disagree somewhat with the Professor. These purveyors of groupthink and mob rule are not just moving along. They seem, in many cases, to be somewhat shrinking in size or their loyal hardworking minions seem to be lessor in numbers as layoffs rattle through their hallowed halls. They don’t seem to have learned anything because they still turn out trash at a rate close to Warp 7 even as the truth comes along more slowly at
    NAFAL speed. (For those non-Sci Fi readers that means “not as fast as light”).
    I must commend the new administration because they do seem to be, (at least at this point in time) well briefed and prepared to strike back at even faster speeds than the “journalists” and seem to also show their utter disdain for the selfsame “journalists”.
    Particularly JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and the new CIA Director. Of Course Ron Desantis could give accredited course work in slapping down ill fated journalists.
    What I anxiously await is for AG Bondi to get confirmed and turned loose.
    I’m also waiting for the time someone tries to tangle with Usha Vance.

  12. “Putting aside his constant press gaggles and conferences“…
    That’s rich, if I’m reading the side bar correctly, after four years of sniffing and word salad….

  13. Bam!!!

    A virulent unknown strain of a virus comes from Wuhan. It just so happens that the NIH is funding a joint experimental with the PRC on the Covid virus gain of function research. It starts there, spreads rapidly through China. It is vectored by unrestricted air travel and upends the lives of billions of people and kills millions.

    A second grader could make the connection.

    This was a crime against humanity. The cover up and mass gaslighting is also a crime against humanity. In the words of the Godfather, “It insults my intelligence.”

    1. Several years ago, the WSJ published a scientific article describing genetic reasons why COVID-19 was most likely the result of gain-of-function research because the possibility of specific genetic changes arising spontaneously from nature was highly improbable. Also, Steve Hilton went down the rabbit hole of NIH grants exploring gain-of-function research sponsored by Dr. Fauci. Because President Obama wisely banned gain-of-function research in the US, these studies were conducted abroad, in China.

    2. Orchestrated just in time to thwart the Orange menace undermining the global cabal plan of one world order. HW Bush was head of the CIA and a former president. He publicly stated that a globalist cabal was coming. When tyrants speak, you should listen.

  14. There are 2 words which need to be erased from use, misinformation and disinformation. As this article so poignantly illustrates, the problem lies in the “who” is defining said information as maligned. And even more horrifying, the “why”.

    1. I disagree. Those two words appropriately characterize much of the information that comes from government, academia and media today. Without them we would be left with only the words propaganda and lies. The hoax that is global warming is finally starting to lose credence in the public mind. The sliver lining of the Covid pandemic is that it exposed the lack of credibility and honesty in government, academia, and media and the left in general.

  15. I’ve been pretty sure it was a lab leak all along. Nothing new other than they sat on it for so long.

    1. “I’ve been pretty sure it was a lab leak all along. Nothing new other than they sat on it for so long.”

      I think that most people capable of objective reasoning concluded long ago that the evidence overwhelmingly favored the lab leak hypothesis, and no credible countervailing information has surfaced since. The most important question to me is whether the leak and subsequent international transmission was caused solely by arrogance, carelessness, and “bad luck”, or whether it was an intentional attempt to destabilize our society and institute permanent authoritarian controls, and if the latter, who were the primary actors and agents behind that attempt. Unfortunately, the odds of ever getting an intensive answer to that question are not very good.

      1. Sure, a leak just in time to thwart a re- election of the opposition after a booming economy and a highly successful presidential first term. There are no coincidences that have perfect timing like that. Good thing is Swamp creatures have been exposed for the corrupt vermin they are. Now we prepare for righting so many wrongs. We shall see as this tale of treason unwinds.

      2. It’s like who blew up the NordStream pipeline? After less than 24 hours of consideration, I concluded it was Biden (or his handlers). There’s even a video of him saying he will, from about six months before. It was the only way to keep Germany on board with sanctions against Russia once the weather started getting colder.

  16. Remember censorship is bad when done by National Socialists or Communist regimes but good, righteous and necessary when done by modern western liberal governments. And if you disagree you are a racist, exist, bigot who deserves to be destroyed.

    S@@tlibs, how was my attempt at wokespeak?

    antonio

    1. How does Glenn Kessler still have a job? Fact checkers cannot promote BS and still keep their jobs, can they?

      1. You forgot to add the sarcasm tag to your post. If that isn’t an accurate characterization, when was the last time you heard of a “fact checker” being fired for lying about the facts? For >99% of them, that is, in fact, their job.

  17. AI should be ACS, accelerated computational speed, because it just uses the modern version of Aristotelian /Boolean logic,and is limited by the data and commands of its human programmers. Stop already with the AI BS!

    1. @Anonymous

      Very much agreed. The term ‘AI’ is a serious misnomer. I proposed ‘advanced algorithms’ at one time. Your description is spot on, I don’t think many people have any idea what the technology actually does or how it works. Doesn’t mean it can’t be seriously misused, but it is not magic and it is not infallible; the fact is, it’s regurgitation and actually quite stupid, like an automaton. It is why Big Tech has been so keen to vacuum up as much data as possible for years. Great comment.

      1. “If/then/else” in parallel streams, and limited self-modification with iteration. I came to that conclusion a decade ago. The only thing even close to “magic” is in the training, and, so far, the tendency there seems to be clearly biased in the direction of “black magic”. However, if the “news” about DEEPSEEK is anywhere near to accurate, we are about to see a huge paradigm shift in the entire field of AI. I just hope that my find managers have been paying attention the last few days and done some easing of NVidia (etc) positions…

        1. @Number6

          Even then, it’s still just regurgitating, and restricted to its dataset, even if that is vast. It’s essentially a glorified Google search or Photoshop filter, and that will never fundamentally change, you can’t ‘break’ mathematics. It could even lead to self-pollution by the algorithm itself rendering the entire thing useless.

          Who knows about Deepseek? China isn’t exactly known for their honesty regarding such matters (i.e. they lie like mofos), could very well be vapor. I guess time will tell.

          1. Re Deepseek being real: Time will tell, of course. Allegedly it was developed by a group of Chinese students; who knows how much autonomy they have (and how long they will enjoy it)? Downloads for it already exist on a generic open source AI sw distribution site named “Hugging Face” and I may get a copy to play with on an isolated machine. I’ve already seen at least one “investment advisor” poster on ZeroHedge warning that it is way over-hyped and warns not to download it because it steals all of your GMail information. Coming from a source of that nature, I consider that to be evidence he thinks it is real enough that to be a threat to Nvidia and other, similar companies in which he has a stake. Seriously? I don’t have “GMail” and I do have the ability to isolate, identify, and monitor software that potentially contains a threat.

  18. Tell me I’m wrong please, but JT’s articles seem to me to be written by AI.

    1. Okay I’ll tell you, you are wrong. You can’t handle the truth even if it’s starring you in the face.

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