Washington, D.C. is a city that has long spun statistics to the point that they become more fable than fact. It reaffirms the famous view that there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The line is the perfect warning to the unwary about politicians citing statistics. The quote itself is widely misrepresented as the work of Mark Twain or British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, so it seems nothing can be trusted when it comes to statistics, not even quotes on statistics.
That question is again at the heart of a debate following the announcement of President Donald Trump that he would be sending the National Guard into Washington and taking temporary control of the D.C. police. In response, Mayor Muriel Bowser and other democrats denounced the plan and claimed that violent crime is at a 30-year low after dropping by 26% so far in 2025.
However, those statistics were recently challenged after a scandal involving allegations of suppressing crime reports to artificially reduce crime rate statistics. The media is reporting the reduction claim despite only recently questioning those statistics.
The MPD in July suspended Michael Pulliam, police commander for the Adams Morgan neighborhood, for allegedly manipulating crime numbers. D.C. Fraternal Order of Police chairman Gregg Pemberton accused police officials of pressuring officers to falsify statistics to reduce crime rates:
“When our members respond to the scene of a felony offense where there is a victim reporting that a felony occurred, inevitably there will be a lieutenant or a captain that will show up on that scene and direct those members to take a report for a lesser offense. So, instead of taking a report for a shooting or a stabbing or a carjacking, they will order that officer to take a report for a theft or an injured person to the hospital or a felony assault, which is not the same type of classification.”
Pemberton said that the MPD’s statistics were “preposterous… There’s absolutely no way crime could be down 28%. Last year, they suggested that it went down 34%.”
Even accepting some of these statistics, it is hardly anything to celebrate. For example, Washington, DC’s 2024 murder rate was 27.54 per 100,00 people. That is higher than cities like Bogota (15.1), Mexico City (10.6), Islamabad (9.2), and Lima (7.6). It is astronomical when compared to the capitals of close allies like Paris (1.64), London (1.1), and Madrid (0.96).
There are good-faith reasons to oppose this move. I am not convinced that the National Guard deployment is warranted or likely to have a meaningful impact on crime. However, President Trump is within his rights to order the deployment. He may also take temporary control of the police and can notify Congress if he wants to extend that period to 30 days. D.C. is a federal enclave and is thus different from other cities. There is no governor involved in such orders in Washington, which remain under the jurisdiction of the federal government.
What is also clear is that crime remains very high in this city and the reliability of the D.C. crime statistics can be legitimately questioned as we look for solutions for public safety.
I watched the DC news with the “experts” claiming that crime is down and they don’t understand the need for this action by Trump. Of course we really only heard from the Mayor. And I thought how this story might have been more impactful if the “journalist” had also interviewed a representative from the police, like the head of the MPD union, not someone beholding to the Mayor. We didn’t hear from the union or cops on the beat and I can only imagine why.
Ask the families of the murdered. Fast Eddie
If there were 10 murders on my block in a week and it was reduced by 50% the next week; I would not be satisfied.
Perhaps try to kill less people? Just a suggestion.
It’s easy to show lower crime rates when you stop arresting and prosecuting people for committing crimes. You’re like the drunk looking for his keys under the street light.
Maff is haard! DC’s solution is simple! Find another mayor Marion Barry, who committed 100% of all crime, Himself!
How about Detroit with the “hip hop” mayor? Or New Orleans with Mayor Ray Nagin? I’m almost sensing a pattern here.
Looks like the talking point of the day is “convicted felon”. Go with that, Democrats. We had an election which proved that the electorate completely disregarded your show trials, but I suppose this is all you’ve got. Why do Democrats love crime and criminals so much?
“Why do Democrats love crime and criminals so much?”
Shouldn’t they be all for Trump now, since he’s a “convicted felon”? Do you have any consistency in your beliefs at all?
Professor Turley’s claim about D.C. spinning numbers is about politicians in congress doing the spinning. That has been a given for a long time. What he’s not saying is the data is coming from the Metropolitan police. I hope the professor isn’t insinuating that the Metro Police is being partisan with it’s data. But that’s the impression.
Trump is a convicted felon found guilty of falisfying business records. He is fond of changing statistics to fit his false claims instead of accepting reality.
“convicted felon”
Nobody cares. Get a new talking point.
“Trump is a convicted felon found guilty of falsifying business records” in a kangaroo court:
As a general rule, a kangaroo court is any proceeding that attempts to imitate a fair trial or hearing without the usual due process safeguards including the right to call witnesses, applying laws retroactively, the right to confront your accuser and a hearing before a fair and impartial judge. Kangaroo court proceedings are usually a sham carried out without legal authority in which the outcome has been predetermined without regard to the evidence or to the guilt or innocence of the accused and lack of impartial judges.
He was found guilty by a jury of his peers. He had all the due process he could want. He even managed to extend his trial multiple times.
Evidence was pressented and Judge gave Trump plenty of leewway with his motions. In the end he got lawfully convicted of the crimes he was accused of. He’s officially a convicted felon who holds the office of the President.
“Evidence was pressented and Judge gave Trump plenty of leewway with his motions.”
Absolutely false. The judge blocked pretty much every motion from the Trump lawyers, and even barred testimony from the former head of the FEC regarding the complete legality of what Trump did with his NDA. Why do you lie so shamelessly?
Since the trial was so important, and the crime so egregious, please tell me, what was the sentence? Nothing? For 34 felonies???
Don’t try telling me that it wasn’t a phony show trial. It failed because he got elected anyway, and the judge wisely swept it all under the rug and tried to pretend that the trial never even happened.
His sentence was commuted because he was president at the time. Just because he didn’t serve time does not mean the conviction does not count. He’s still a convicted criminal under the law.
“His sentence was commuted because he was president at the time. Just because he didn’t serve time does not mean the conviction does not count. He’s still a convicted criminal under the law.”
He was absolutely not president during sentencing, you nimrod. January 10this before the 20th. Do you people even know that search engines exist?
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/10/nx-s1-5253927/trump-sentencing-new-york
And nobody is disputing his conviction status due to your kangaroo court. We question the entire case, and it will be overturned
“His sentence was commuted because he was president at the time. Just because he didn’t serve time does not mean the conviction does not count. He’s still a convicted criminal under the law.”
He was absolutely not president during sentencing, nimrod. He was sentenced on January 10th, and according to my calendar, that is before January 20th.
Nobody is disputing his conviction status from your kangaroo court. We question the entire case, and it will be overturned on appeal.
A senior officer in the department has been suspended for ordering the mis-identification and mis-categorization of some violent crime in a portion of the city, making the stats GIGO and untrustworthy. What is egregious is the press has reported upon this but then turns around and relies upon this falsified data to attack the President, reinforcing the uselessness of our current national news sources.
He falsified business records by describing payments to his lawyer as “legal expenses.” The shame of it!
President Trump has managed to find yet another 80/20 issue for Dems to get in the 20 side. It is truly amazing.
When Trump addressed congress and he said that no matter what he says the Democrats will not agree with him only to be followed by the Dems sitting on their hands while Trump introduced a child cancer survivor, the families of people murdered by illegals and a young man that was given the opportunity of a lifetime by Trump. It was a sickening display of partisan buffoonery and it taught Trump a valuable lesson on how far the Dems will go to oppose him.
So for the record the Dems support violent illegals being here, men in woman’s sports and places, Iranian nuke program, unfavorable trade policies of friends and foes and now crime in DC.
I’m waiting for Trump to come out for air, sweet beautiful air, and then watch the Democrats put plastic bags (biodegradable and responsibly-sourced of course) over their heads.
I know right? When he was walking on the roof and mumbling incoherently I was like where my snipers at?
“When he was walking on the roof and mumbling incoherently I was like where my snipers at?”
The Secret Service killed one, and arrested another. Maybe the rest of your losers got scared off at that point.
By the way, I didn’t watch the rooftop video. Did Trump sound anything like Mumbles Biden? You know, when Biden beat Medicare?
The, ‘Our murder statistics are actually within acceptable parameters, a hundred murders is better than a two hundred.’, defense is really something. Also absolutely typical. It’s right up there with, ‘Arresting and charging people for crimes they committed will have no impact on reducing crime.’.
They not only lie about the stats, they act in such a way as to “make crime go down”. What do I mean? Well if you have Soros elect radical DAs around the country they not only don’t prosecute many crimes, they also render many things that were crimes as no longer a crime. For example when cities made shoplifting up to $1,000 no longer a crime robberies “went down”. When radical DAs charge misdemeanors instead of felonies the number of felonies goes down.
Soros! Drink.
We just assume that you’re always drunk, Wally, because you probably are.
Declassified intel ties Soros to Clinton’s Russiagate plan for FBI to ‘put more oil into the fire’
“A declassified annex from John Durham’s report sheds new light on the Clinton Plan to falsely tie Trump to Putin, with the expectation that the FBI would join in too.”
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/clinton-plan-tying-trump-russia-had-hope-fbi-will-put-more-oil-fire
hullbobby: a very important truism that you point out. good.
All that is correct but don’t forget that the Soros sponsored prosecutors take every opportunity to indict and prosecute police who are just doing their jobs. I know one personally and know of several others. Now they are saying Michael Brown was murdered!
President Epstein and his cabinet of press secretaries are hilarious.
He ran for office for the free publicity, and all this time later, while he concentrates on critical issues like building a ballroom and ripping out roses and acquiring an armored golf cart and retrofitting a Qatari bribe into a $1 billion Air Force One only to retire it 3 months later for personal use via his next grift-machine “library”, healthcare remains in its “conceptual” phase a decade later and prices for everything are up and rising.
Every city has always had problems: does that mean the feds swoop in? Where are all the Don’t Tread on Me tough guys, pushing back against the inevitable overruns of unalienable rights, as Americans and legal immigrants will invariably be affected.
Magats have TDS.
Oh look, another rambling laundry list of leftist talking points. Let’s be honest here, we all know this is just another copy and paste job, so why do you bother? What lunatic leftist attack list did this blog show up on today?
Everyone, take note of the “othering” of Trump voters here. This is one of the steps on the path to genocide.
The Left Wing Woke Radical DEMS along with their media – MSNBC-CNN-ABC etc are shocked their is crime, homeless, drug issues in DC? They ignore the shootings, youth gangs gone wild, filth, homeless, drug etc. Many of the DEMS have their own security. Its about time that Trump cleans up DC as well as hopefully clean house of DC Police DEI/Crime loving leadership. Mayor Bowser can Huff and Puff and PElosi can rant but bottom line Trump can do what he wants. Trump should clean out the rats nest in the DC jail where they kept the J6 people.
This reminds me of when those in government claim spending is going down when we are, in fact, spending more.
They will point to statistics… “last year we spent 15% over our budget and this year we plan to spend only 10% over it so, the rate of spending is down 33%”
Headline – “Democrats Slash Spending by 33% in New Budget”
I suppose that the professor should be proud that, based on the level of leftist troll activity here recently, his blog has obviously gained enough influence to come to the attention of the leftist media manipulation outfits.
@Anonymous
I’ve thought similarly. Not hard to tell when a piece is right over the target.
James,
Yes. They are desperate to try to highjack the good professsor’s blog to deflect from all the wrong doing by the Democrat party. Would not be surprised if some of the annoy morons are actually the same person responding to his own comments to, desperately, attempt to continue to deflect from the wrong doing by the Democrat party.
Regardless, this is the kind of transparency we voted for.
@Upstate
It is desperation, and it looks like desperation. I’m almost certain at least one of the trolls likes and responds to their own comments. I don’t know who they think they’re fooling.
Magats love to think anyone would love to talk them down from their deluded ramblings…but we’re just waiting for you to finally die.
“Magats love to think anyone would love to talk them down from their deluded ramblings…but we’re just waiting for you to finally die.”
Another step on the path to genocide. And this creature probably thinks that she’s smart and compassionate. What a freak.
Here’s a beautiful statistic: the average homeless person in D.C. has 33 less felony convictions than the president.
“the average homeless person in D.C. has 33 less felony convictions than the president.”
Your lawfare failed. He’s still the president. I bet that stings.
Nobody cared about your phony show trials, and all of it will be overturned later on appeal, so in the end, what was the point exactly?
He’s still a convicted felon. Why should we trust a convicted felon found guilty of falsifying business records? He’s already trying to falsify government statistics by firing BLS statisticians because the data is showing an awfuly weak jobs report that is exposing the problems of his economic policies. He is indeed a convicted felon because he was falsifying records to make his properties look more valuable than they are.
And still he’s a convicted felon. Let that sink in maga. A CONVICTED FELON.
I don’t care. Nobody does. Americans re-elected him anyway, because the voters saw through your show trials. That’s right, we picked the “convicted felon” over the “famed prosecutor” Kamalalalala. Does that hurt your fee-fees?
@Anonymous
That the irony of this statement in relation to the topic is lost on you is breathtaking. If only you knew how thin the tiny walls of the box you live in are.
Say “convicted felon” three more times and maybe a President Harris will appear! Hahahahaha!!
He is SPARTACUS then, exemplary of the hammer a corrupt Government wields on our people.
TRUMP! MAGA! FOR Americans!
I thought that Corey Booker was Spartacus. He did a such great job keeping Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court with his bravery.
No Booker is Fartancus
What are you guys going to say when his “34 convictions” are overturned on appeal?
He’s a convicted felon PRESIDENT of the United States and will remain so for 3 plus years. Then once finished J D Vance will be elected for a subsequent eight years. 12 years should be enough to get our Nation straightened out from the damage fallout from the Kenyan Usurper. Let that sink in.
Convicted of what, exactly? You don’t even know what the jury actually ruled, because nobody does, not even the jury. The awful judge basically gave the jury a buffet of options and said “Pick what you want so long as you get to guilty”. That’s not legal per Supreme Court precedent, which states that criminal convictions must be unanimous on the charges. Just one reason why your crap conviction will be overturned. Prosecute in haste, repent in leisure.
So much denial. Are you suffering from heat exhaustion?
“So much denial. Are you suffering from heat exhaustion?”
No, unlike you I can afford air conditioning.
What could possibly be worse than preventing crime? My goodness! Trump cracking down on crime!?
We are seconds away from the total collapse of our society. Imagine walking down the street or driving your car without fear?!
A Democrat prosecutor used lawfare to turn a minor misdemeanor barred from prosecution by the statute of limitations into multiple felonies. A corrupt judge allowed it and twelve corrupt jurors voted to convict based on the lawfare.
Fortunately, the American people didn’t like it. They chose the “convicted felon” to lead the country over the Democrat.
Thank you for reminding voters that Democrats engaged in unprecedented acts of lawfare to turn the current President of the United States into a convicted felon. Your party’s approval rating is now lower than a pregnant snake. Still too high, but closer to where it should be.
Wrong, he was “convicted” of labeling checks as “legal expenses”. The other show trial was charging him with letting the banks make money off his loans (all paid back) while using unaudited (appraisal) values. In other words, “guesstimate of the value” of the properties. Like buying a house, the seller has a value and the buyer has a lower “value” in mind. I guess we should prosecute all home sellers for inflating the “value” of their h9me!
I know…, we’re just waiting for him to die and we can have the massive parade in celebration. Bonus points….Epstein was blackmailing trumpy bear and the Russians paid him off. We all know the pedophilia is just table stakes for magats.
“I know…, we’re just waiting for him to die and we can have the massive parade in celebration. Bonus points….Epstein was blackmailing trumpy bear and the Russians paid him off. We all know the pedophilia is just table stakes for magats.”
Witness the sickness of the left. Delusional and full of unjustified hatred. In reality, the person that they hate is themself.
Odd that none of Trump’s appeals seem to be working their way through the corrupt NY court system. Usual appeals take a month while these appeals languish for years???? The reason is because the higher courts KNOW that these cases were all corrupt and that they have to be overturned and so they sit on them and let them fester.
“The reason is because the higher courts KNOW that these cases were all corrupt and that they have to be overturned and so they sit on them and let them fester.”
I didn’t keep the link, sadly, but I read somewhere that one of his appeals is taking ten times longer than is usual in that particular court. There’s no way to justify that other than deliberate obstruction. Our judicial system is a joke.
Corrupt NY court system!
So where did you find any signs of corruption?
I’ll wait.
Put the bottle down Wally. Everybody knows the system is a joke in New York.
Here is someone who knows a lot more about law than you do and has more common sense than you do.
Judge Judy slams hush money case against Trump as ‘nonsense’
“You gotta twist yourself into a pretzel to figure out what the crime was. [Bragg] doesn’t like him — New York City didn’t like him for a while,” Sheindlin said of Trump in a “Who’s Talking to Chris Wallace?” interview streaming Friday on Max.
“I would be happier, as someone who owns property in Manhattan, if the district attorney of New York County would take care of criminals who were making it impossible for citizens to walk in the streets and use the subway, to use his efforts to keep those people off the street, than to spend $5 million or $10 million of taxpayers’ money trying Donald Trump on this nonsense,” the longtime TV judge told Wallace.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4733211-judy-judy-trump-new-york-hush-money-alvin-bragg-convicted-felon/
The only thing Wally waits for is a bus.
“The only thing Wally waits for is a bus.”
Hahahaha
And it’s the short bus for sure!
Ballloooon, ballllloooon!
“Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes truth.” Goebbels
“We choose truth over facts.” Biden
Truth: Crime is at a 30 year low.
Fact: Crime stats were being downgraded by commanders in the DC Police force.
Again, Professor Turley, you have taken on the matters of TRUST. Without trust in its institutions, a nation is at risk. Of course, Muriel Bowser reports correct but deceptive statistics. This is just one kind of statistical errors we see every day. Here’s a partial list.
1. Correct but deceptive statistics. – using extreme data to prove improvement
2. Statistics of counting. – census and voting
3. Statistics of bias. – includes selective sampling
4. Statistics to make faulty inferences – causation vs correlation is a favorite.
5. Statistics of “cherry-picking.” – blatant bias, used often in surveying.
The general issue you bring up is this: What government institutions do you trust to give correct information?
The allegation is that these statistics are not “correct but deceptive” but fraudulent, because violent crimes are being reported in categories that are not counted as violent crimes, in order to show improvement where there is none. They are not “using extreme data to show improvement,” they are using deceptive data to show improvement.
Professor Turley, President Trump has already shown he will fire anyone who contradicts his views even when the data is correct. Instead of accepting the data he changes it to fit his view. The recent firing of the chief BLS statistician because she posted bad jobs numbers that Trump didn’t like make his claims about D.C. Crime rates suspect.
What is interesting is Trump was able to call up the national guard and take over the D.C. I thought it was not possible when January 6 happened. Strange how fast it happened too.
Trump has a wild history of falsifying data and information to fit his fantasy views. He is a felon because of it. The real question should be why should we trust Trump, a convicted felon who was found guilty of falisying records to inflate his property values?
Could this “crisis” in D.C be an another distraction from the announcement that, once again, he extended his tariff threat against China for additional 90 days? The TACO monicker is starting to fit.
Trump wants to rid the capitol of it’s homeless population by employing the military. Where is he going to send them?
You’re incoherent as usual. Trump takes bold action (the purpose of this article), yet he’s also a coward? Which is it? You type a lot of words but say absolutely nothing.
You mean you admit you have no ability to read for comprehension? Obviously.
One can’t comprehend what is not comprehensible. You write like a child trying to sound important, and all you did was put together a rambling list of disconnected talking points. You have no logic, no argument, no facts to buttress your opinions. So, yes, you basically said nothing. Congratulations on being useless.
I wanted to write the same thing about you anon.
“I wanted to write the same thing about you anon.”
That will prove to be hard because you lack the ability to form coherent thoughts and furthermore to arrange them in a written form for others to consume. You’ve proven your inability already.
DC Police Union chair supports Trump takeover
“We stand with the President in recognizing that Washington, D.C., cannot continue on this trajectory,” union Chair Gregg Pemberton said in a statement. “Crime is out of control, and our officers are stretched beyond their limits.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5446705-dc-police-union-praises-trump/
Former Capitol Police chief blasts Pelosi for comparing Trump’s activation of National Guard to J6
“The post comes after HBO released videos last year of Pelosi admitting her office needed to take “some responsibility” for the National Guard not being deployed ahead of the riot.”
https://justthenews.com/government/security/former-capitol-police-chief-blasts-pelosi-comparing-trumps-activation-national?utm_source=referral&utm_medium=offthepress&utm_campaign=home
So Trump could have deployed the National Guard a lot faster on Jan 6. He just didn’t want to stop the mobs from doing their thing. Because he wanted it to keep going.
“So Trump could have deployed the National Guard a lot faster on Jan 6. He just didn’t want to stop the mobs from doing their thing. Because he wanted it to keep going.”
Nice try. Doesn’t even pass the smell test.
You do know that Bowser and Pelosi are the once who refused the NG on J6, right? Trump ordered them up days before.
I wonder if some constitutional attorney might explain how Trump is using authority that is not his to do such.
But, then again, he must deflect from the Epstein debacle he is up to his eyeballs in.
It’s perfectly legal. And why would Trump have problems with the Democrat Epstein scandal? It’s your tar baby, they’re your pedophiles, Democrat scum.
“Section 740 of the Home Rule Act gives the president the ability to use D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department for “federal purposes” that the president “may deem necessary and appropriate.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dc-home-rule-act-trump-puts-dc-police/story?id=124548993
Amazing what a 0.05 search can do.
Upstate, they only look for what they want to find.
Ok, what loser actually upvoted this mess of a comment? Come clean, fess up.
Given the fact crime statistics are the metric directly reflective of any government’s ability to fulfill it’s primary purpose, I wouldn’t trust any reporting that isn’t verified by a non-partisan, oath-swearing, independent watchdog group. And thne double-check their reports.
These classifications of crime reports do not have a clear meaning or definition, presuming that these numbers can be meaningfully associated with any other demographic information would seem to be an obvious error too.
I’d be more persuadable by a tracking of citizen perceptions regarding the increase or decrease in serious crimes, broken down by general location or neighborhood.
This was a post on X last night on this subject: The whole crime discourse is annoying because some people are talking about crime in the strict legal sense, and some are talking about pervasive social disorder which does not necessarily result in any “crime” in the strict legal sense – in part because under disordered conditions, those who are at risk of becoming victims of crime take extraordinary precautions in disordered public spaces or simply avoid them altogether. The first group then recites statistics about crime in the strict sense, overlooking that the second group is talking about ambient social disorder, and that the distortion that arises from such disorder is itself deeply corrosive for communities and the common good.
This point is crucial: actual crime may never occur, but only because people take exceedingly costly precautions to avoid it. And those costs are themselves the problem.
farm4501: Excellent. I’m going to mention you in a repost at the top of the comments. Thanks for sharing.