George Washington University has found itself in the eye of the storm over Hurricane Maria after President Donald Trump has lashed out at its findings that roughly 3,000 people died in Puerto Rico rather than a couple dozen cited by President Trump. Trump has called the widely cited GW study “inflated” but the university (where I teach) is standing by its findings. Top Republicans have distanced themselves from Trump’s remarks and leaders like House Speaker Paul Ryan went public to say that there is no reason to doubt the GW findings. Even Trump supporter Florida Gov. Rick Scott who is running for the Senate tweeted “I disagree with @POTUS—
Trump is arguing that the GW simply counted anyone who died during this period as a hurricane death: “3,000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3,000.”
3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000…
GW focused on “excess deaths” by comparing the number of deaths during the designated period with past mortality patterns. They found that the total number of deaths was 22% higher than the baseline and extrapolated from that figure. It found that doctors often did not link deaths to the hurricane despite listing the causes as cardiac arrest, respiratory failure and septicemia.
162 thoughts on “Trump Versus George Washington: GW Stands By Mortality Findings From Puerto Rico”
Trump must have dusted off the old “Halliburton Hurricane Machine”. He did this on purpose. What kind of human being would do such a thing?
Did you read this in the NYTImes? Only the first part blaming Nikki Haley but I’ll bet you never saw the second part. If that is true I have now answered your prior question.
“New York Times publishes certifiably fake news about U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley
On Thursday evening, the New York Times posted a hit piece on U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, claiming that she has accumulated lavish expenditures during her tenure and pointing to $50,000+ curtains at her official residence as proof. The one problem, as Haley’s spokesman notes in the piece, is that the expensive curtain purchase was made during the Obama administration.
In a piece for Conservative Review, Chris Pandolfo has more on the New York Times’ Haley hit.”
TORONTO STAR – LIST OF TRUMP LIES AS OF 9/12/18
Pete………..I don’t give a flying fact-check what Toronto thinks. Stop the Canadian collusion.
Cindy, let me get this straight, ‘Anyone possessing Canadian citizenship is totally suspect with regards to Donald Trump. Because Justin Trudeau is a ‘socialist’ hated by Donald Trump’..?
Petey………..Let me get this even straighter. In Canada, there are 50 live birth abortions each year. LIVE BIRTH. That’s approx. one each week. I have no interest in a people who have no problem with that appalling fact.
I don’t like using their PR BS language.
Those abortions as they say, those are Post Birth Murders!
What’s next, Post Birth Murders up to 5yrs old?, 10, 15, 25, post 65, 70?
Where does it stop?
In the mean time I’ll try to use my own words, not theirs.
Olly….I certainly understand!
Cindy, let’s see a source on that. We don’t honestly know where you’re getting that.
Pete……Research it. I did, and I’m just a housewife. FIFTY is on the low side. I’ve read some reports that the number is 61.
There are no abortion laws in Canada. Women can have them whenever they please. No restrictions on ending the fetus’ life. It’s always open season on the unborn in Canada.
Cindy, Petey the Shill doesn’t read anything not specially prepared for his reading diet. Therefore, he only knows what he is told he ought to know. Everything else is shocking to him and his ego. I don’t know how anyone gets trained NOT to think but apparently that happened with our friend Petey.
Cindy, this is what Wikipedia says:
“On October 19, 2012, anti-abortion protester Patricia Maloney expressed concern over 491 cases of live-birth abortions between 2000 and 2009. The finding reported to Statistics Canada did not include detailed information on how long each fetus survived after removal or how many would have been possible to save. Further complicating the issue is the fact that Canada, unlike the United States, does not have a law confirming or denying the legal rights of a baby who survives abortion”.
In other words, the vast majority of these 491 live birth abortions might well have been seriously deformed. What’s more, with its liberal abortion laws, any woman wanting an abortion can get one at any stage. Therefore it seems unlikely that a woman would carry a pregnancy 9 months only to abort upon delivery.
In any event, it’s hard to see where liberal abortion laws make every single Canadian evil. Nor can one see how said laws guarantee that The Toronto Star lies with regards to Donald Trump.
Pete moss……………………See also Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) and the National Post…….your brothers in arms at google can oblige.
So now Google is evil in addition to Canadians, the mainstream media, Justice Department, CIA, California, NFL players, Mexicans, Muslims, etc, etc. Whatever Trump says.
Peter Hill –
So now Google is evil in addition to Canadians, the mainstream media, Justice Department, CIA, California, NFL players, Mexicans, Muslims, etc, etc. Whatever Trump says.
I think it was Google who had the motto of Do No Evil, that is no longer their motto. It is gone. Now they can do evil.
1. Google is evil. Twitter is evil. Facebook is evil.
2. Canadians as a group are not evil, but certain Canadians (mostly comedians who have moved to the US) are evil.
3. The Lamestream Media is evil.
4. The hierarchy of the Justice Department and FBI are evil.
5. The hierarchy of the CIA are evil.
6. The powers to be in California are evil.
7. All NFL players are overpaid. Some are idiots. Some may be evil. Some are certainly brain damaged.
8. Some Mexicans, including all members of MS-13, are evil.
9. Some Muslims, including all terrorists, are evil.
RePete………..I have no idea what your “list” is all about, but you are commenting so much that I feel I should remind you that Cheeto dust can play havoc with your computer keyboard, and is almost impossible to remove from your mousepad. You’re welcome!
Cindy, at least in the past Switzerland and France used to let live births die on the table if below a certain weight or below a certain height. This was picked up years ago when it was noted some countries had no infant mortality in the lowest weight category.
Allan. I had no idea about that!
My generation of women (I’m 72) were told that it was ok to abort a baby because it was no more than a mass of tissue….But now, thanks to science we know the fetal heartbeat starts at 5 weeks. But
Liberals suddenly go back to the old definitions and out of date information when they want to defend abortion…….they go all Prissy on us ………”I don’t know nuthin’ bout birthin no baby”
The best anti-abortion cartoon, for lack of a better word, that I have seen shows a pregnant woman holding a sign that reads ” Keep your laws off my body” ..and there’s a little girl in her womb, with a bow in her hair . She’s holding a sign that reads “Yeah. Mine too.” I almost cried when I saw it.
Women are carrying another body within them…..that fetus is not the mother’s body! It’s another person they are supposed to be nurturing…..That’s why we need to stop calling a fetus by that name. We should call them illegal aliens, because we know how liberals will protect them and risk everything for their health and safety.
“That’s why we need to stop calling a fetus by that name. We should call them illegal aliens, because we know how liberals will protect them and risk everything for their health and safety.”
Please never type that again: I’m just a Housewife!
There are males & there are females & both are needed to form a family unit that can attempt to survive the turmoil.
Both my mother & my mother in law were the glue that held the families together.
With them having passed me& my wife miss them greatly.
Cindy, you gals are the Keystones that hold this stuff together & don’t forget it! 🙂
There’s a lot of other stuff, but life comes down to it’s just Racin…
Thank you, Oky1……that is kind of you.
Pete…..”we don’t honestly know”……..Would that be you and Dr. Mengele?
Peter Hill – we do not trust the “wandering” eyebrow of Trudeau.
Paul C……..shouldn’t that thing have spun a cocoon by now?! 🤣
Cindy Bragg – I am just hoping that it found a home. 😉
That is opinion. Pick out a few of the worst lies of Trump and defend them.
In the meantime I will list a few things Trump has done for the economy at various times during his administration.(That might create a bit of duplication as not infrequently great accomplishments have become greater accomplishments.) Later, if you desire I will work my way to other important segments of government.
Fastest growing pace in 14 years for manufacturers
BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT RECORD LOW
Jobless claims lowest level since 1969
Trump secures 2026 World Cup for the USA
Consumer Confidence Highest in 18 years
Black Business Ownership Under Trump JUMPS 400 PERCENT in ONE YEAR
Youth Unemployment Hits 52 Year Low
Black Support for Trump DOUBLES to 29 percent
RECORD Number of Employed – 63 Percent labor participation
Worker pay rate hits highest level since 2008
Black and Hispanic Unemployment rates hit record low in April
Business Investments up 39 Percent Due to Tax Cuts
April 2018 Best Month in HISTORY for Budget according to CBO
Food Stamp Usage Drops Half Million in Single Month
Highest Ever Manufacturer Optimism over 94 Percent
Unemployment claims have fallen to a 45-year low
Trump Economy Explodes Record Number of Americans Employed Stocks Soar
FEB JOBS BLOWOUT 313K
GREAT AGAIN Household Net Worth Pushes Further Into Record Territory
U.S. Consumer Confidence Is at 17-Year High
US homebuilding permits soar to highest level since 2007
Economy to grow at 5.4% rate in first quarter
Roaring: Economic Optimism Index hits 13-year high, credit to tax cuts
U.S. jobless claims drop to near 45-year low
Wages jump to highest level since 2009 – up 2.9%
U.S. Oil Production Tops 10 Million Barrels A Day, First Time Since 1970
Trump Decreases Debt to GDP Ratio – First Time in Over 50 Years!
Jobless claims drop to lowest level in nearly 45 years
Apple to Invest $350 BILLION in US citing Trump Tax Plan
Utilities cutting rates, cite benefits of Trump tax reform
Over 100 companies giving ‘Trump Bonuses’ after tax victory
Black unemployment rate falls to record low
Trump adds 184,000 manufacturing jobs and continues growth trend
Manufacturing in the U.S. Just Accelerated to Its Best Year Since 2004
Nikki Haley negotiates $285M cut in ‘bloated’ UN budget
WIC Welfare Participation Hits 17-Year Low
U.S. home sales hit 11-year high
Manufacturing Optimism Reaches Another All-Time High – 94.6%
Economy adds 228K jobs in November
Mining up 28.6% – Leads the Nation in Growth
Broadcom will move back to U.S. — and bring tax money with it
US private sector added 235,000 jobs in Oct – Beats Expectations
Consumer confidence highest level since December 2000
Q3 GDP at 3 Percent – Beats Expectations
Ivanka Trump creates new World Bank initiative to foster Entrepreneurship among Women
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Surges to 13-Year High
63.1%: Participation Rate Reaches Trump-Era High
Unemployment down to 4.2, wages rise .5%
New entrants from outside the labor market made up 3.2
U.S. Factories Expanding at 13 Year high
Dow posting first eight-quarter winning streak in 20 years
Home builder confidence at 12-year high
Manufacturer confidence at a 20-year high
Tech giants pledge millions to Trump initiative
Q2 GDP up 3.1%
Sales of new U.S. homes rebounded in August
Federal Reserve: Household Wealth in America at record high of $1.7 trillion – Rising property values and Financial gain
Surging stock market powers U.S. wealth to $96.2 trillion
Food Stamp Usage Has Fallen Every Month Under Trump
Median Incomes Climbing for First Time Since 2007
Trump has signed a $15 billion relief package for Texas in the wake of Hurricane Harvey
Jobless claims drop to 240,000 – hottest streak in 43 years
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rose in August
Recovery Is Finally Trickling Down to Least-Educated Workers
U.S. Job Satisfaction Highest Level Since 2005
American manufacturing expanded in August at fastest pace in six years
Donald Trump Ends Obama Effort to Waive Work Requirements for Welfare
Consumer confidence strengthens in August, second-highest level since late 2000
President Trump Cuts More US Debt for a Longer Period of Time Than Any President
Pennsylvania coal company to open a SECOND coal mine
Summer Youth Unemployment Falls, Level Since 1969
In Trump era, American corporations are seeing their best earnings in 13 years
US trade deficit narrows as exports hit 2-1/2-year high
Milestone for Trump: 1 million new jobs in six months
National unemployment rate at 4.3% (lowest it’s been in 16 years)
13,000 jobs being created in WI – largest job announcement in WI history (Foxconn)
Black Unemployment, Lowest Level in 17 Years
Gas prices at a 12-year low
Some states are experiencing their lowest unemployment rates in their histories
Trump Announces $200 Million in Apprenticeship Funding
U.S. has record 6 million job openings, 6.8 million Americans are looking for jobs
CEO confidence highest since 2014
U.S. jobless rate falls to lowest level in 16 years
Trump signs bills that helps Veterans and Police officers by giving them Priority and Training
Government spending as percentage of GDP down
1000s of jobs being created through pact with Saudi Arabia
Executive Order on the Establishment of the American Technology Council
USA’s small business confidence is spurring a hiring and spending spree
Alibaba Takes First Step To Fulfilling Jack Ma And President Trump’s ‘One Million U.S. Jobs’ Promise
Slashing job-killing regulations left and right
Creating thousands of more jobs for immigration officers and border patrol
Signed a resolution encouraging women in entrepreneurship and STEM
Executive ordered all federal agencies to create task forces to cut regulations that hurt the economy
US Manufacturing Index at a 33-year high
Coal Miners are WINNING. Cut Regulations/Create Jobs/New Plant
US Economic Confidence Surges To Highest Level Ever Recorded By Gallup
Allan…..wow. Thank you for this list.
Any time. I thank you for your wonderful comments.
Thank yoh, Allan.
Allan: You’ve made more claims here than I have time to investigate. Which was obviously your intention. You’re betting I don’t have all afternoon to check out each one of these. And you’re right, I don’t!
But let’s see a mainstream media story substantiating this one claim:
“Trump Decreases Debt to GDP Ratio – First Time in Over 50 Years!”
See if you can find an article from Forbes, Fortune, Businessweek, The Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg substantiating this claim.
My understanding is that in 2017 the Debt to GDP ratio decreased by 1% from 105% to 104%. Other presidents have caused a decrease but not by 1%. That was last done by President Nixon.
There were almost 100 other statements but you chose this obscure claim and now you probably are very confused.
If it’s such an obscure claim, why did you make it? Though I won’t mention that you can’t substantiate that claim with any mainstream business source.
Furthermore, the 2017 budget would have been set in September of 2016 while Obama was still president. Budgets for new presidents don’t begin until September of their first year in office. So let’s see that claim for 2018.
“If it’s such an obscure claim, why did you make it? ”
It’s obscure to most but interesting. In order to understand what is happening in the economy one has to look at numbers and trends. To most people these numbers are very boring and hard to explain in the limited space Twitter offers. The NYTimes prefers to downgrade true accomplishments. Therefore, Trump presents what is absolutely in the pubic domain as a number to demonstrate an improved economy. If you had the patience or the inclination such a number would not be necessary but you prefer to listen to things that distort what has really happened.
Do you think I keep a record of every mainstream newspaper account? No. But most of the newspapers have at one time or another revealed numbers that can be used to do that exact calculation and some publications print the number. If such a Number were printed in the NYTimes it would likey be at the end of a column bashing the President and on page 35. By the time people get there the number becomes meaningless to them. That is why you are ignorant of so many important facts.
With regard to economic changes that occur they are very frequently based on perception. That is what happened with a lot of the metrics when Trump was elected. Businesses felt more secure and acted so even before he took over the Presidency.
“So let’s see that claim for 2018.”
Why look for that claim when one can look at the GDP. Should we rely on the NYTimes economist that said the US would fail under a Trump administration right away? The GDP second quarter is at 4.2%. I think the other number becomes somewhat superfluous with an economy growing at this rate. What you are doing is demonstrating your absolute ignorance of present day affairs.
Allan, you’re like a third rate lawyer; just an irritating waste of time. One can be sure that nothing productive will come from debating with you.
“One can be sure that nothing productive will come from debating with you.”
Of course nothing productive occurs. You are not fact based and you lie. When we compared Trump to JFK you ran away when I produced information you didn’t want to accept. Just above out of ~100 items that Trump did that were positive for the economy you picked out one for me to explain and I did. You have no facts to back you up and that frustrates you. Time and time I have corrected your errors and you don’t even say thank you.
Allan – Canada is interfering in the midterms. Jail their a$$es!!!
Now you know why the American Founders established a restricted-vote republic.
Alexander Hamilton – The Farmer Refuted, 1775
“the people are nothing but a great beast…
I have learned to hold popular opinion of no value.”
George Washington University, now there’s a rascist name for you.
These are not “facts” and this is not “proof.”
There is a colossal shadow of doubt.
If anyone is stupid enough to believe these “fake news” and concocted figures, I have some oceanfront property in Arizona I’d like to sell
Enough incoherence and hysteria.
Repeal the 19th amendment by executive order.
“Repeal the 19th amendment by executive order.”
How does one repeal an amendment to the Constitution with an executive order? If you stand behind the Constitution you have to reject your own advice.
You are absolutely correct. Was that question posed of “Crazy Abe” Lincoln? He found or created a rationale for denial of constitutional secession, unconstitutional and undeclarable war of northern aggression agaisnt a sovereign foreign nation, confiscation of private property, suspension of the right of Habeas Corpus, the ramming through in an insufficient period of time, by his successors, of three improperly ratified amendments under the duress of post-war military occupation, etc.
“Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures.” America is under the prosecution of Obama’s Coup D’etat in America.
“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”
– Abraham Lincoln
And “Crazy Abe” initiated that process of destruction by nullifying the Constitution and taking unconstitutional action. Slavery, for example, should have been eliminated using tools of free markets like boycotts of the products of slave plantation and divestiture from industries employing slave labor.
America needs to rid itself of the incoherence and hysteria. America has real enemies in the world, Russia and China, that don’t allow any citizens to vote other than for “show” or appearance’s sake.
It’s long past time to re-implement the “manifest tenor” of the literal words of the Founders in the Constitution, which, by the way, provide maximum freedom to individuals and severely limit government. The entire contemporary American welfare state is unconstitutional.
Whatever shall we do?
The only question at issue in my response to you regarded the 19th amendment.
“The only question at issue” is the incoherent and hysterical, entirely unconstitutional, American welfare state.
The whole thing needs to be torn down, starting with the unrestricted vote, and restarted following the “manifest tenor” of
the verbatim text of the Constitution of the United States.
Under the Constitution, government exists ONLY to facilitate the freedom of the individual.
Congress has the power merely to tax for “…general Welfare…” not individual welfare.
Individual Americans have the right to fully possesses and fully dispose of private property without any form of interference
by government including “regulation” of private free enterprises.
The commerce clause simply assures the unlimited flow of commerce among the states and that no bias or favor will be
granted in commercial markets.
Once you accomplish that, all this communism simply vanishes.
No more welfare, food stamps, affirmative action, quotas, social services, forced busing, WIC, HAMP, HARP, Obamacare,
Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, Social Security Disability, Fair Housing, Non-Discrimination, public worker strikers,
public housing, etc.
Dependent parasites will be free to use GoFundMe.com and other free market charities.
Democrats, liberals, progressives, socialists and all other communists can start free market charities – they can accomplish
their redistribution and social engineering in the private sector.
George, If you wish to conflate multiple issues that are not directly related go ahead.
“Under the Constitution, government exists ONLY to facilitate the freedom of the individua”
Women are individuals.
Blacks are individuals.
“Individual Americans have the right to fully possesses and fully dispose of private property without any form of interference”
Women are individuals.
Blacks are individuals.
Where did GWU post the list of Names of the dead & the causes of death of the Puerto recons?
Right, I didn’t think so.
Before Trump was elected the USA was sending Puerto ricans money to fix their electric grid.
What’s the matter PR Governor, mayors & other leaders are inbred idiots & too stupid to fix their Ele Grid?
And as I recall there was plenty of warning a bad storm was coming, What the leaders & the people to stupid to leave & get out of the way?
Even more info available, but with at least that many known facts it not only shows GWU is engaging in partisan politics & been shown as idiots with failed arguments.
Is the corrupt Governor, Mayors & other leaders still in their official positions?
So Trump was just in office for a few months, but those PR leaders were supposed to be ready years before Trump became Prez. The Feds/FEMA are not responsible as the 1st line, 2nd line 1st responders, it’s the PR job & they failed.
Next Prof Turley, GWU, will be blaming Trump causing Climate Change BS as they can show the polar ice caps on Mars are melting. LOL:)
This entire series of comments can just be eliminated with the assertion, “Trump is always right!” Case closed, nothing to see here.
Trump was right. The left plays with numbers. There was an official death toll from the hurricane. This present tabulation has to do with things other than the hurricane, but what should we expect with present Democrats that consistently lie.
Look at my next post for what the Democrats like as a leader.
The left plays with numbers, is selective in how they present information, has a bias, etc. This is all true. Such is the way of politics, all politics. However, no one-and that is NO one, lies, fabricates, whines, tweets, blames, makes a fool of himself, cheats, lies, whines, lies, etc on the scale of Trump. Trump is in a world of his own, along with his mindless dupes.
Since you have drawn a conclusion that Trump is the biggest liar you should have no problem in listing the worst significant lies he made as President.
You have been asked for that more than once and you never respond. Could it be that you are lying? That seems to be the best possibility since with the number of lies you say Trump has made you should be able to list a few big ones.
Trump stated on record many times leading up to a meeting with Prime Minister Trudeau, that the US has an enormous trade deficit with Canada and that this is wrong. He mentioned an extremely small part of US/Canada trade, dairy as yuge. In fact, the US enjoys a several billion dollar trade surplus with Canada. The US exports more dairy to Canada than Canada does to the US. When Trudeau corrected Trump, Trump argued that Trudeau was wrong until one of Trump’s aides whispered in his ear that indeed it was Canada suffering the trade deficit not the US. Then Trump laughed and stated that he made stuff up all the time.
This latest argument of a few dozen hurricane deaths versus several thousand is another lie, an untruth with his own Republican lackeys arguing against him. That the Democrats made this up is another lie.
There are many lies told by Democrats and many by Republicans but no one lies as much as Trump, and openly enjoys it. He laughs at the public. Perhaps he is laughing at his followers as well. You can argue all you want but the sun rises in the East and sets in the
West, unless you hear it from Trump and then the sun could rise in the South and set in the North.
As for more examples, read the Washington Post. They are biased as is the New York Times, however, they do print the truth. Their bias is in their op-ed section. What is noticeable to those that pay attention is that the Post and the Times print good stuff as well as bad stuff about Trump. FoxNews and the Washington Times typically-not always but often enough-just don’t print the stuff where Trump sticks his foot in his mouth.
Issac’s Number 1 lie of Trump “US has an enormous trade deficit with Canada and that this is wrong. ”
Is it? Firstly a lie is not something where the facts are disputed. From Bloomberg. “Trump May Actually Be Right About the Trade Deficit With Canada”
Issacs claim is a lie. Trump’s claim is disputed but it is both an honest and respectable belief.
Issacs Number 2 lie ” few dozen hurricane deaths versus several thousand is another
There is more than one way of calculating hurricane deaths. The usual way leads to what Trump says. The unusual way not used on the front page of newspapers for other hurricanes is the long term calculated deaths. What Issac is calling a lie is the standard use of the number of deaths and replacing that with a number we seldom if ever see. I think that shows a lot of ignorance on Issac’s part, but it certainly doesn’t demonstrate a lie by Trump.
Here we have Isaacs two major lies. The first is a valid difference of opinion. The second is the inappropriate use by Issac of numbers not normally used. Trump lied on neither issue. Issac lied on both.
Canada, great people, great geography, fine civic traditions, productive economy, decent laws, horrible government leadership. A leadership that has never equaled its people.
Australia: settled by convicts, poor in resources by comparison, and yet always had better leadership than Canada.
If your Prime Poobah Trudeau was worth insulting a lot one might bother. Suffice to say he stinks.
Allan, here’s a list of Trump lies documented by the Toronto Star, 9/12/18
This is what Democrats stand behind:
“New York Voters Pick Socialist Compulsive Liar Accused of Anti-Semitism and Keith Hernandez Affair
Cheer up, socialists.
Sure Cynthia Nixon, Zephyr Teachout, Jumaaaaanee Williams and Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili all badly flamed out in New York Dem primaries, but Julia Salazar won.
The Christian Jewish Colombian immigrant from Miami, who may or may not have graduated from Columbia, but has a huge trust fund and hates Jews, will go on to the New York State Senate.
The fake woman of color/trust fund baby fighting gentrification by appealing to gentrifiers roundly won the gentrifier vote against a man of color and will go on to the State Senate. And there’s no doubt that a compulsive liar who in her short life already managed to be accused of stealing wine during an affair with Keith Hernandez and to accuse a Netanyahu aide of sexual assault, will do the DSA proud.
Can a joint Cherokee/Colombian ticket with Elizabeth Warren be far behind?
I for one can’t wait until Julia Salazar has an affair with Governor Andrew Cuomo, gets accused of stealing wine by his wife, and then comes out as a Buddhist member of ISIS and joins the Nazi Party.
Forward comrades, you have nothing to lose but your minds. And the last of your credibility.” __Greenfield
Um, why? Penn state and Harvard attempted similar analyses, and the results ranged from 1,139 to 4,645. Harvard’s 95% confidence interval went from 800 to 8,500. To me that looks like a case of the noise swamping the signal.
But beside that, it represents a radical departure from the way we reckon deaths from Hurricanes. We never used to consider, for instance, somebody who commits suicide three months after the hurricane, because he got laid off as a result of his company’s client finding another supplier, due to production stoppage due to a hurricane, as “death due to a hurricane”. For hurricane Maria in PR, though, we count that but also any other confounding factor that could have increased the death rate as all being “deaths due to Hurricane Maria.” Awkwardly, if the mortality rate were to fluctuate downward for unrelated reasons (and we seldom have a complete picture of why the mortality rate fluctuates the way it does), we would be forced to conclude the hurricane saved lives.
I’d be interested in having this technique applied to past hurricanes to see whether the results track with traditional methods. At least that would give us a basis for comparison.
DaveL – I agree +100,000,000%
FLORIDA REPUBLICANS AND SPEAKER RYAN ON DEATH TOLL
Some Republicans also criticized the president’s tweet. Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who is running for the U.S. Senate in a state where many Puerto Ricans moved after the devastating hurricanes, tweeted that he disagrees with Trump and that “an independent study said thousands were lost and Gov. Rosselló agreed. I’ve been to Puerto Rico 7 times & saw devastation firsthand. The loss of any life is tragic,” Scott continued, “the extent of lives lost as a result of Maria is heart wrenching.”
The campaign of Rep. Ron DeSantis, a strong ally of Trump’s who is the GOP nominee for Florida governor, said in a statement, “[DeSantis] doesn’t believe any loss of life has been inflated.”
And House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said, “I have no reason to dispute these numbers.”
Ryan said the numbers were “a function of a devastating storm that hit an isolated island,” adding, “that’s no one’s fault.”
On Tuesday, Trump claimed his administration’s efforts in Puerto Rico were “an unsung success,” despite criticism that the federal response to the storms was slow. Some homes had their power restored only this month, a year after the hurricane.
Edited from: “Trump Denies Almost 3,000 Died In Puerto Rico, Falsely Claims Democrats Inflated Data”
Peter Hill – the electricity problem is not a Trump problem, it is a PR problem. Their electrical infrastructure had not been maintained. There is a Frontline I recommend to you. Probably available on liberal controlled YouTube.
Paul, let’s go with that. Let’s say that Puerto Rico’s electrical infrastructure had been neglected by Puerto Rican officials which is actually quite probable. Then the numbers from GW’s Milken Institute could be perfectly credible. So why would Trump dispute them? Why would Trump even raise the issue when Hurricane Florence is about to strike?? It just seems stupid to create an unnecessary controversy.
Peter Hill – right now, unless you have been living under a rock, Trump is under serious attack going into the midterms. And PR still is sitting on drinking water they have not delivered.
Paul, let’s go with that. If Trump faces an unfavorable climate going into the midterms, then ‘why’, in God’s name, would he invite this mindless controversy?? As I noted above, Florida Republicans have disowned his tweets.
Peter Hill – which state is closest to PR? Which would have the most immigrants (technically they are already citizens)?
Paul, let’s go with that, if Florida has the most to lose from a surge of Puerto Rican migrants, then Trump has failed both Florida and Puerto Rico. Dumb, Dumb, Dumb..!!!
Florida had a surge of Puerto Ricans not because of Trump but because Puerto Ricans are American citizens and can go where they want. There is a large hispanic community in south Florida and I will bet many that fled Puerto Rico already had family in south Florida.
Take note how you stupidly blamed Trump as usual. This is a typical stupid Peter Shill comment.
The press says they (some Republican candidates) disowned his tweets, but not quite. They decided not to pollute the environment with garbage, the technique used by Democrats, so that the voting public can concentrate on the real issues. You, Peter Shill, seldom look at the real issues focusing only on lies and deceipt.
“Then the numbers from GW’s Milken Institute could be perfectly credible. So why would Trump dispute them?”
Because normally when one uses a metric one uses the same method of calcualtions when that metric is used. They don’t use an alternate calculation in order to berate another. The left likes to distort the truth and Trump was absolutely correct. Anyone with a head on their shoulders would recognize this to be true immediately. Unfortunately the left depends on an ignorant society.
“Let’s say that Puerto Rico’s electrical infrastructure had been neglected by Puerto Rican officials which is actually quite probable.”
It is not a let’s say issue. It was a problem with an earlier storm and has been a problem waiting for Democratic management to fix. After this storm and due to Trump Puerto Rico will be better off than they have in a long time as a good deal of the infrastructure is being repaired at our expense.
Trump disputed the fact that the media lied when they said Trump lied and he only has Twitter to get his message out to the general public. The news media dupes support the continuous Democratic talking points that are mostly lies. The Democrats of today don’t even provide policy (which includes the action, how to do it and how to pay for it). Democratic issues are almost solely Anti-Trump and identity polltics.
The left loves to convince stupid people of things that aren’t true and some stupid people gobble these conclusions up without thinking. The closest comment to a correct comment in the above is “that’s no one’s fault.”
The reason the left can get away with such sh-t is that many on the left don’t know mathematics and statistics nor do they have any facility in science. If one wants to use the numbers used by the universities that means that the death rate of every hurricane has to be increased, but it wasn’t done because the idea was to blame Trump when he did an excellent job. Further if we analyze the post hurricane death rate which probably did have a slight upward blip we would have to analyze what the underlying cause was for any unexpected increase in the size of the blip. If we did that we would end up blaming Democrats who control Puerto Rico and did not take care of the infrastructure with the money provided. It is very similar to the large Democratically controlled cities where the death rate from violence rocks anyone’s conscience except for a die hard Democrat.
I actually did read this study when it came out and I questioned the methodology from a scientific perspective. If people die from heart attacks in months after a hurricane that cannot be definitively attributed to lack of appropriate government response. The stress of living in a storm damaged area could be equally responsible. That is the case with many of the types of deaths listed. Only the deaths that can be directly tied to poor relief efforts should be counted if you are trying to make that case that there was an inadequate response.
As I understood it, the function of the study was not to evaluate the relief efforts but to try to determine the real impact of the hurricane. Trump wouldn’t be getting the pushback if he (or the administration generally) had responded with something along the lines of “this gives us more information on the devastating effects of these events, which can help us develop even better ways of preparing for them as well as responding to them” instead of effectively “I did a wonderful job and they’re lying about people dying because they’re democrats scheming against me” the whole thing would have been a blip on the public radar.
Richard, the only place the regular
folk read on a regular basis is MSM. Trump has to rely on Twitter. Such explanations as yours don’t adequately fit into Twitter. However, elsewhere the President says other things that would better satisfy your desires such as the quote you have above, but that is only repeated in places like Fox News or non left-wing journals. If you add the other side of the coin to mother-jones you will find Trump making exactly the arguments you want him to make.
So he says stupid things on twitter, because other things won’t fit. By the way, where is he making the alternative arguments you reference?
No, Richard what he says on Twitter is not stupid. Twitter limits the amount of explanation necessary so he fills the box with the most important things and relies upon you to actually seek out more information. It is stupid to rely on sound bites or news that has been written more as an op ed than as news.
“where is he making the alternative arguments you reference?”
I have heard Trump speak and read what he has said in various places. You realize that the President has spoken at many rallies. They are frequently shown on Fox News from beginning to end so you can actually listen to what he actually says. You can also hear the briefings and the press conferences, but frequently the MSM edits them so you won’t hear some of the things you should. He has been interviewed on TV and rarely on MSM sites but you can hear him there.
If you are not getting the appropriate information blame yourself or your lack of curiousity. Don’t blame him as he has been the most transparent President of my lifetime.
You said he was making statements on a particular topic. I asked you where, and your response is to make inaccurate and insulting assumptions. Can you identify anywhere that he has made the remarks you claimed?
Richard I didn’t make insulting comments even though you called the President’s Twitter remarks stupid. I did say “If” which is a perfectly reasonable response :”If you are not getting the appropriate information blame yourself or your lack of curiousity. Don’t blame him as he has been the most transparent President of my lifetime.” If you don’t like the tone of the response stop using the word “stupid” with regard to the President’s Twitter comments that you apparently know little about. If you have telescopic vision it is yours and perhaps that is why you can only see what is placed in the center of your eyes.
I told you where I get my information and where you can get yours. I don’t keep a diary of these things so that I can lead you to drink at the fountain of knowledge.
But Richard: when the ‘real impact’ of the hurricane makes Trump look bad, he has no choice but to hit back at the study. Anyone who makes Trump look bad is obviously part of deep state and linked to the Clinton machine.
Peter, you lie and the MSM may distort, but Trump told the truth.
Puerto Rico has not been a healthy place in recent years. With the financial meltdown of 2015, people have been leaving in droves. Jobs disappeared. According to National Geographic TV, some 70% of adults are addicted to illegal drugs. This is the context for Hurricane Maria in 2017, which destroyed housing and electrical infrastructure.
The number of immediate deaths during the storm would likely be in the ~100 range. These would be trauma injuries. However, even these are hard to classify. How do you assign blame to someone who got addicted to heroine 4 years ago, spends all their money on it, and let their house deteriorate?
It gets even harder after the storm has passed to assign blame. Sure, the electricity and water outages were a contributing factor. But so were pre-existing conditions. Old age. Lack of health care and sanitation infrastructure. Neglected housing and electrical infrastructure. Drug addiction and escapism.
My point is that there is no scientific way to classify Maria as the exclusive cause of death except in cases where the victims were well prepared for the hurricane and just unlucky.
Consequently, one’s bias would largely dictate how classifications of death were made, whether one wants a larger number or a smaller number — whether one wants to honestly acknowledge the deterioration of the P.R. leading up to the hurricane, or to conceal it.
COMMENTER PAUL C SCHULTE ON PUERTO RICO’S DEATH COUNT:
“And you do not think GW is in the tank for the DNC, please. You have yet to speak out about the free speech abuses on the GW campus”.
Here Mr. Schulte, long known for somewhat cautious comments, flatly accuses George Washington University of being “in the tank for the DNC”.
Apparently Mr. Schulte feels that Professor Turley is something of a stooge to defend his university when said school is so obviously functioning as an arm of the DNC. Mr. Schulte offers no evidence of a link between GW and the DNC, but feels the appearances are so overwhelming that no evidence is necessary.
Peter Hill – FIRE has given GW a red light rating for it’s speech code and the yellow light for several other things. When you read the speech code violations it has to do with sexual harassment which is straight out of the DNC playbook.
Paul, does the DNC actually have a “playbook” regarding speech codes on university campuses?
Peter Hill – they do, just ask Eric Holder and Barack Obama.
Okay, Paul. As every conservative knows, Holder and Obama are such odious figures that the mere dropping of their names should confirm any suspicion that GW colludes with the DNC.
Peter Hill – they sent a letter to all colleges and universities setting out how speech codes and sexual abuse panels were to be handled. That is why I made the reference. I think is known as the “Dear Colleague” letter, which was the start of several other action by the Obama WH.
Paul, if said letter was sent to ‘all’ colleges and universities, then why do you single-out GW as ‘in the tank for the DNC’?
Peter Hill – because many schools, like ASU, have gotten rid of the policy. GW hasn’t.
Professor Turley historically leaned leftward. Who knows which way he leans today now faced with the idiocy of the Democratic Party.
The Dems are hard to like.
Did you catch this?:
The Coast Guard actually reprimanded this young man. The person who reprimanded him needs to be disciplined or fired.
We are becoming a nation of crazies.
👌 This is the OK emoji for Apple.
No I missed that story but I suspect its representative. What you are seeing is the building pressure of counter-revolutionary forces. When one side controls the culture in such a pervasive, authoritarian way, those disaffected feel dismay, then anger and finally resentment. This will manifest itself initially in passive acts of resistance like this that will bring condemnation and then punitive measure that will become progressively more draconian. And the pressure will grow as the resentment grows disproportionately in a Malthusian geometric progression. Eventually, a catalyst will be introduced into the bulging system and the powder keg will explode. America has particularly bloody civil wars (Revolutionary, The Civil War, Civil Rights Movement, etc) judging from history and an winner will emerge usually predicted by motivation, organization and resource control. That’s the lesson of history among free peoples.
As always, Diversity Is Our Strength.
Yep, War is Peace; Right is Wrong: and Diversity is Our Strength. It’s the trifecta of historical ignorance.
“In its report last month GW estimated there were 2,975 excess deaths in Puerto Rico from September 2017 through February 2018 stemming from last year’s hurricane.”
Unless you define “excess deaths … stemming from last year’s hurricane,” making any qualitative judgments among the various studies estimating deaths* is impossible. Trump opted for the lesser figures. So what? Why doesn’t anyone mention the utter incompetence of the PR officials in the distribution of hurricane aid or the corruption of same seen in the recent charges including some of Trump’s most vocal critics. Always it’s Trunp’s fault because that’s the default position among the Maoists who would rule us.
*”Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and other institutions concluded that the number of hurricane-related deaths likely ranged from about 800 to 8,500. A study released earlier this month by researchers at Pennsylvania State University and the University of Texas at San Antonio estimated the number of fatalities was 1,139.”
And, the rabid Trump supporters slither out from under their rocks.
The academics that calculated the death toll discounted the normal or ‘if there hadn’t been a hurricane’ deaths and came up with 3,000. The communication of deaths from all parts of the island was severely hindered during the aftermath; a few dozen deaths reported does not mean that there were a few dozen deaths but basically that the death toll could not accurately be reported because of the damaged infrastructure, which includes communications systems. The disaster continued in the form of the island being without services, food, water, etc for much longer after the storm.
Trump stated shortly after the storm passed that Puerto Rico was on its own. The government was hard taxed given the hurricane damage in Houston. The access to the hard hit areas of Puerto Rico was and remains very difficult. etc., etc.
The telling issue here is not that FEMA couldn’t respond quickly enough. Explaining the circumstances and offering a promise to fix things would be the response of a normal person. Trump is not a normal person. His lies far exceed his grasp on reality. Trump is all sizzle and his supporters can’t focus past the ends of their noses.
Here’s slithering fact about how the PR local officials incompetently handled aid distribution. Incompetently when they weren’t doing it corruptly.
mespo, I don’t think people like Issac read or read well so there is a good chance that despite your sending him to a good story he will see it. That is why I am copying the first paragraph. These people have to be dealt with like grade school children, hand fed.
“About a million cases of FEMA-provided water have sat untouched on a tarmac in Puerto Rico for nearly a year while residents died from a lack of access to clean drinking water.”
Guess who is to blame for that.
Mespo: The article doesn’t necessarily say the unused water deliveries were a failure of local officials. In fact, the article seems to imply that it was FEMA’s failure to oversee and follow-up. FEMA is currently under Trump’s leadership.
From the article:
“Marty Bahamonde, director of disaster operations at FEMA, said the agency didn’t track where the water went.
FEMA is investigating whether or not the agency left the water bottles on the airport runway, according to the report.
Carlos Mercader, the executive director of the Puerto Rico Federal affairs Administration, said in a statement that the water bottles were not handed over to the Government of Puerto Rico for distribution, and that the government was only made aware of the “excess” water supply in April.
FEMA gave the water bottles to the General Services Administration on April 26, according to Mercader’s statement, after which the Puerto Rican government began its distribution efforts.
More than 700 pallets of water were delivered to at least four different municipalities between the end of May and mid-August, according to the statement.
The municipality of Barceloneta, which received a shipment of water, reported it had a foul odor and bad taste, at which point the government ceased distribution.
Mercader said that FEMA should have distributed the water when it was in the agency’s possession, and also declare the “excess inventory” before April”.
“The article doesn’t necessarily say the unused water deliveries were a failure of local officials.”
From the article:
“The Federal Emergency Management Agency confirmed to CBS that it had delivered the water to the island, and then handed it over to the central government.”
But Puerto Rico is still part of the U.S. FEMA should continue its oversight even after deliveries.
Yes to a collectivist mind that’s logical, but not to a federalist one. “Stop me before I kill again,” is not a sustainable system.
Peter Shill is highlighting the longstanding question of when do Democrats take responsibility for anything? They don’t and always blame someone else. Look at the death rate in Chicago and take note of the fact the Democrats are the administrators of that city.
FEMA and the feds work under the government of the state or of Puerto Rico. FEMA helps but the Democrats running Puerto Rico as they do in Chicago don’t take responsibility.
From the article: “The Federal Emergency Management Agency confirmed to CBS that it had delivered the water to the island, and then handed it over to the central government.” That is right. If one looks at the picture in the article one wonders how that water so greatly in need was missed by Puerto Rico’s Democratic officials.
I have seen calamities and guess what? People don’t sit on their a$$’s waiting for someone to take care of them. They act. Democrats seem to have lost that ability.
Peter Shill, FEMA has standing procedures in the event of every kind of disaster. Marty Bahamonde has been with the agency for decades and his exasperated e-mail exchanges with Michael D. Brown at the time of Katrina were published at the time. The procedures and the personnel who implement them do not disappear with a change in administration.
The agency had 10,000 employees during the fiscal year concluding in 2018 to cover the whole country. (By way of comparison, the NYPD has 49,000 sworn officers). They’re not really equipped to replace local first responders, but to supply and assist them. If the locals are indifferently organized and led, you get problems. Recall the Ray Nagin Memorial Motor Pool in New Orleans? All those school buses under water and unusable for evacuation.
Yeah, you get a perfect ‘storm’ of events when local officials are incompetent. And that’s an argument for a muscular federal government; ‘local officials are often incompetent or corrupt’.
Oh FEMA has a procedure to nationalize locals entirely. COG stuff. and turn the lights off on the internet and phones if need be. Read it, amazing how well laid the plans are. Scary, a little too. There are operational plans to eliminate federalism overnight, literally.
Jeh Johnson give a little scare when he suggested FEMA should federalize the local elections due to the “Russian threat.” Kind of put me on permanent suspicion of “the Russian threat” as a convenient excuse for feds to do whatever.
Well, bete noire of American feds, the Russians. Always the excuse for more intrusions, centralizations, and abrogations of cherished rights. The Red Scare is back. I guess people didn’t buy terrorists as an excuse so we switched back to the old bogeyman. Or should i say “baba yaga”
And that’s an argument for a muscular federal government; ‘local officials are often incompetent or corrupt’.
No, that’s not an argument for a muscular federal government. The corruption and incompetence of officialdom does not exempt the central government. The utility of federal function in disasters is that the actuarial pool is larger.
Let me tell you about corrupt local government. And Kurtz you might know this story.
I lived in Chicago when Jane Byrne was mayor. And she was the most reprehensible politician I ever saw. And I saw her quite often because I worked near her building.
Byrne’s administration was this open secret of corruption captured daily by local media. Interventions by federal agencies and court rulings helped stabilize Chicago.
It made me realize a muscular federal government was needed to save cities from racketeers. And that happens in the south with racist local governments. But it ain’t limited to them!
Detroit and Washington had corrupt Black local governments while suburbs of L.A. have had corrupt Hispanic local governments. Corruption is multi-ethnic. Any local government can be taken over by racketeers. Even clean-cut family men can function as racketeers.
So take it from this former Chicagoan; ‘Corrupt local governments are outrageously insulting. To read about it every day is bitter to experience’.
issac – this is from the Washington Post.
The Washington Post noted just some of the studies as of June 2018 (original links):
The New York Times calculated 1,052 deaths through October.
The Center for Investigative Reporting calculated 985 through October.
University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez professors calculated 822, with a 95 percent confidence range that the total was somewhere between 605 and 1,039.
Pennsylvania State University professors calculated excess deaths of about 500 in September, or a total of 1,085 if the same pattern held in October. That estimate was based on six weeks of mortality records.
A Latino USA analysis, using updated data from Puerto Rico’s Department of Health, calculated 1,194 excess deaths in September and October.
The Post noted that the new estimates hovered around the 1,000 mark.
issac – as you can see, no one can make up their mind. And now GW comes in with 3000? Damn, let them study New Orleans and see what they get.
After a while, during which various approaches were made to ascertain the ‘hurricane related’ death toll, several academic studies, discounting ‘non hurricane’ related deaths, all came up with approximately 3,000 ‘hurricane related’ deaths.
Now, you can go back in time to fuel your ignorance/argument but typically; when stuff settles down, objective sources analyze the data, and results are offered up similar in number; well Paul, your Trump defending arguments appear as what they are, Trump supporting arguments in the face of solid facts, or Trump facts; fake facts from a fake President.
The fact of the matter is that the Democrats did not make this up to make Trump look bad. Trump makes Trump look bad along with his supporters. In the face of several academic studies, all producing around 3,000 ‘hurricane related’ deaths, Trump offers up 18 to 20 and the difference is all due to those nasty Democrats. And, you use this as your argument?
issac – I have made my comments clear on the sketchy methodology and then I gave you a list of papers reporting different death totals at roughly 1/3 or less (usually less) than the George Washington computer simulation. I think Trump is right. The timing is suspect and the numbers are suspect.
It is also suspect that they would only do this with PR’s hurricane under Trump. Not New Orleans where 10,000 died that they could count bodies. Why not do that one? Or Pearl Harbor? Any of the Civil War battles. D-Day invasion? The destruction of Berlin by the Soviets? Really, there is so much to work with, why this example and why now?
The issue here is not the difference between one academic study stating 500, another 2,500 and another 3,000, etc. or whether or not the deaths were attributed to the hurricane in one degree or another. The sources you quote all come from different and earlier times. The most recent sources were done to exclude the ten + thousand deaths of other causes. The most recent studies take into consideration all the previous studies. The most recent studies have been accepted by most everyone in the Republican Party, with the exception of Trump and his most rabid followers. Now, talking of cults.
The issue here is the insanity of Trump arguing that there were only a couple dozen deaths and that ALL other numbers are fabricated by Democrats trying to make him look bad. The issue here is the absolute nonsense coming from Trump; but more than that the support by his dupes in this insane stance. Puerto Rico was a mess. It was difficult. The system was over taxed. The government fell short. All this is closer to the truth than Trump. Trump and truth simply don’t exist in the same universe.
Trump has repeated constantly that anything placing him in a less than perfect light is false. Yet Trump has lied and/or misrepresented the facts over 5,000 times since taking office. Trump has even admitted to ‘making stuff up’. This is your champion, sad, a travesty.
issac – this is based on a computer model. Garbage in, garbage out.
Trump did an excellent job in Puerto Rico. Only fools think differently. Can’t blame Trump for the poor performance of Puerto Rico officials. Additionally, anyone living in hurrican areas should know (it’s reported enough) that they are on their own and should prepare for several days. Those in more remote areas or living on islands have to be prepared for even longer times for aid.
Issac, it appears you know nothing about hurricanes though you comment. I think all of Trump’s comments (in context) on the hurricanes were mostly justified and certainly more on target than anything you or Obama would have to offer.
Allan, aside from Donald Trump, ‘who’ thinks Trump did an “excellent job in Puerto Rico”??
I think anyone that is not an ideologue and aware of the real facts believes Trump did a reasonable job. How good a job is a debateable point. I remember when Bush was blamed but the facts demonstrate that the Mayor of New Orleans and the governor were at fault.
You are a political hack so I don’t put much credence into anything you say.
COMMENTER MICHAEL AARETHUN ON PUERTO RICO’S DEATH COUNT:
Michael Aarethun says: September 13, 2018 at 5:33 PM
“Verified reports said 18 early on. later one two or three days ater 2975. which immediately grew to 3,000 and then to over three thousand to ‘as much as 4,000. to what may turn out to be and so it grew.
when you are dealing with events such as these you want to calm citizens and other not engage with cheap unsupported sensationalism
What didn’t grow was the original statement of 18 known deaths That part never got reported just the sensationalist BS.
Why would any one trust the former main stream media for factual news?”
The 3000 dead in Puerto Rico may accurate but history tends to repeat itself
When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, a guy by the name of Ray Nagin was mayor. Ray is also known as federal inmate No. 32751-034. Ray had the body count at 10,000.
But that was overinflated.
Mayor Ray Nagin + Gov. Kathleen Babineaux = HOW NEW ORLEANS DROWNED
“Mayor Ray Nagin + Gov. Kathleen Babineaux = HOW NEW ORLEANS DROWNED”
Both of them were Democrats.
Lootie was a Dem too
COMMENTER ALLAN ON PUERTO RICO’S DEATH COUNT
On yesterday’s comment thread regarding the Kavanaugh nomination, frequent commenter Allan defended Trump’s tweets on Puerto Rico with this explanation:
“Hurricane deaths are listed as direct deaths and indirect deaths. At the time Trump made that comment the reports from Puerto Rico were that only a small number died directly from the hurricane. Numbers always increase. A lot of the deaths were caused by Puerto Rico’s poor infrastrucure caused by Democrats that embazzeled money instead of using the money for infrastructure repair.
Lots of water sent from the US was wasted by your type because it was withheld from people to prove nothing was being done when a lot was being done. It is your type that is responsible for many of the deaths in Puerto Rico.
You should leave the US and go to Venezuela and live under the type of system you propose”
Thank you Peter, and yes you should leave the US and go to Venzuela. Venzuela is the result of your type of thinking.
Using this methodology, everyone who died in the US for 6 months after Pearl Harbor can be tied to Pearl Harbor. Actually those who were run over by cars in the blackout certainly can be, but they are not added to the list. And, let’s add to all that, it is a computer model. And you do not think GW is in the tank for the DNC, please. You have yet to speak out about the free speech abuses on the GW campus.
Let’s not forget those who died in training accidents or those who died in German, Italian or Japanese internment camps. Or those who died in the Philippines or as prisoners of the Japanese. All of those need to be added to the total of Pearl Harbor. Get GW to ramp up the computer for deaths on all hurricanes under a Democratic President. I will be interested to see how the figures go.
Paul, you are confusing “excess deaths” with “all deaths.” You say “Using this methodology, everyone who died in the US for 6 months after Pearl Harbor can be tied to Pearl Harbor.” NO! The methodology would subtract those who typically die during that period, from the total number of deaths, to get the number of excess deaths.
Jay S – you will not that I went on to specifically note those deaths that could be attributed to Pearl Harbor.
No, sir. It’s up to the statistics generators to show their work and define their terms in this case.
Spastic: Why are you PRESUMING, “The statistic generators did ‘not’ show their work and define their terms”????
Have you actually seen the academic report?? It’s quite possible said report began with an introduction explaining the above. But Donald Trump more than likely never read it. And here you are, presenting yourself as some Wonk-At-Large, blindly defending Trump by telling Professor Turley that his school failed to explain their work.
Peter Hill to Spastic:
“Have you actually seen the academic report??”
And you haven’t either, yet you accept its premises lock, stock and barrel because its fits your anti-Trump-all-the-time narrative. Skepticism of extraordinary claims is the default position of the educated mind. For you, however, it’s not.
Mespo, Professor Turley explained above how the numbers were calculated.
“GW focused on “excess deaths” by comparing the number of deaths during the designated period with past mortality patterns. They found that the total number of deaths was 22% higher than the baseline and extrapolated from that figure. It found that doctors often did not link deaths to the hurricane despite listing the causes as cardiac arrest, respiratory failure and septicemia”.
So the operative term here is “Excess Deaths”. It doesn’t say that many people died as a ‘direct result’. It simply notes that the ‘total number of deaths’ were ‘22%’ higher than the baseline”.
Therefore I would have no reason to assume those numbers are somehow ‘inflated’ to make Trump look bad.
Mespo, Professor Turley explained above how the numbers were calculated.
Totally at a variance with how such tolls are usually reported. Never mind the discrepancies with other authorities.
Spastic, is their a prescribed means of calculating the Excess Deaths from disasters? Did every foundation and university become signatories to a convention outlining the methods? And how many disasters has the U S had that replicate the variables present last year in Puerto Rico?
Peter, someone who picks up the paper and reads about deaths during a storm is going to attribute the deaths in his own mind to accidents derived from wind, water, or lightening. That’s what’s usually reported. This is a demographic study attributing to the storm an excess death rate in the months succeeding the storm. Nobody thinks that way but demographers, and the GW figures disagree with those of others, maybe because it’s soft data. They take this sketchy number and then expect the common reader to compare it to deaths from injuries in other disasters. It’s a propaganda exercise on the part of the papers if not on the part of GW. To be fair, it could be simple innumeracy on the part of reporters. I doubt you’re going to find many people with a genuine technae who are impressed with the results when they try to explain something to a reporter.
This study by GW doesn’t seem that shocking in light of what happened. Like New Orleans, San Juan had poor local government. For that reason FEMA should have been more engaged as it had to get after Katrina.
And I must note that FEMA was dealing with Houston’s flood about that same time. So arguably Trump should have beefed FEMA up. Instead funds were diverted to ICE.
That sounds like bad luck to me: diverting money from FEMA. There shall always another storm, tornado or earthquake. Smart politicians know ‘keep FEMA funded’.
Unless you control for every other mortality factor, this methodology is flawed. If you had a flu unrelated to the storm or any other health issue occurring simultaneously, the numbers would not provide a reliable measure. You have to see the report to be sure this is the case. One paragraph about methodology says very little. And a correlation is certainly not causation. So given that what proves Trump a liar?
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