Poll: Independents Shifting Against Impeachment

We previously discussed how polls do not show a shift in favor of impeachment after the much covered impeachment hearings in the House Intelligence Committee. Indeed, a poll in the key state of Wisconsin shows a shift against impeachment after the hearings. Now, a poll from Emerson College shows a surprising shift among independents with 49 percent now oppose to impeachment. Over all, Trump popularity have also shifted with a gain of five points to 48 percent favorability.

It is dangerous to put too much on such polls, but what is clear is that there has not been a significant shift in favor of impeachment after the hearings. Marquette University survey found 40 percent support impeachment while 53 oppose it.

I do not believe that impeachments should only go forward with public support. If members believe that a president has committed impeachable acts, they should impeach. Indeed, some impeachable offenses could well be popular with the public. However, the polls are interesting because of the abbreviated schedule of the Democrats. I have been critical of the rush to a vote by the end of December because it not only would leave an incomplete record but not allow the public to fully consider the merits of the impeachment. As I have said before, successful impeachments require a period of saturation and maturation. The Democrats are not giving the public enough evidence or enough time. It is not surprising that this approach has not moved public opinion.

67 thoughts on “Poll: Independents Shifting Against Impeachment”

    1. I think a reconstitution of the political culture of the black population would be beneficial to all parties. One sign that may be in the offing was Bernie Sanders’ performance among northern young adult blacks, among whom he was quite competitive.

      In the 1950s, there was a spectrum of preferences among blacks. The black vote wasn’t a monolith; about 30% of voting blacks favored the Republicans. We benefit from an electorate wherein a critical mass of voters are sensitive to performance. When you have bloc votes determined by ascribed traits, you don’t have that.

      1. three aspects of Donald Trump might appeal to black folks, and I’m just guessing here since I’m not black

        1– highest employment in 50 years.

        2– his immigration restriction policies are liable to benefit lesser skilled native born workers

        3– as a very plainspoken person, who because of it very much annoys DC Swamp creatures, who prefer dissemblers. Whereas, regular people outside DC, press rooms, and universities have learned to dislike, the doubletalkers and fakes and phonies. So like him or not, there is an appreciation for his authenticity.

        Perhaps his obnoxious irritation of the powers that be, provides much rich amusement for regular folks? i feel that way. And I’m just a humble nobody out here in flyover

  1. I am an independent and I am against impeachment (even though I think what he did warrants it) for the following reasons.

    1. The Senate would never convict. That would make it a waste of time and make Trump feel like he was vindicated.

    2. It would make it very hard to impeach a second time if another (even worse) scandal comes out. I think this is an important point that I have not heard anyone else discuss.

    1. Hi Molly:

      Why do you think his phone call to Ukraine warrants getting kicked out as President?

      I agree with you on #1. However, if there was evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors, Republicans would support impeachment. This has proven true historically. There’s not, so they don’t.

      I also agree with you on #2. Democrats have blown their arsenonal on a non impeachable issue. I think the probability of a successful impeachment diminishes. However, I think they will keep bringing it up as an option in future. After all, they have called for his impeachment for being an anti-Semite (disproven), for saying racists were fine people (he didn’t), for being too mentally unstable to have the nuclear codes (disproven), for having affairs in the past (immaterial), for grabbing women (he hasn’t grabbed anyone, just made a bad joke about groupies), for being a threat to cause a war with North Korea (not an issue), for colluding with the Russians to meddle in the 2016 election (actually, that was Hillary), and now for a quid pro quo with Ukraine (actually, that was Biden). There were a bunch more false allegations, but those are the highlights. This is just as far as they took it. Ironic, the lengths they are going to in order to interfere with investigating Biden for a quid pro quo with Ukraine and illegal activity.

  2. The shift in polling of independents against impeachment is probably why Schiff backpedaled to Jake Tapper this weekend “I want to discuss this with my constituents and my colleagues before I make a final judgment on [impeachment].,”

  3. today NPR wonks talking about Censure like impeachment has already been tossed in the garbage
    what a whole lot of fakes the Dem leadership are
    and their pathetic sycophants in the mass media

    1. Over the weekend we watched the new film with Gerard Butler and Morgan Freeman, “Fallen Angel”. We were stunned and turned off that part of the plot involved a DNC talking point: the Russians did it. I was really stunned thinking that story line is now part of our movie narrative.

      Thankfully the film has Gerard and Morgan as actors in it and they turned the plot into “the *****” were behind it, not the Russians”

      Goal! We Loved it! If you like alpha male films, this is a great one

  4. The following article explains why impeachment, the way the Democratic Party has pursued it, has not gotten any traction and apparently is now backfiring: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/11/22/ukra-n21.html. Maybe the public doesn’t ruminate as thoroughly on all the details that this article recites, but people are smart enough to perceive its general outlines, i.e., that impeachment is the means by which one wing of the political establishment is fighting out its sordid international political disputes with the other, and how cynical and empty the Democrats are.

    1. occasionally the wobblies have a good article
      that one was not half bad
      this is the value of reading different sources and points of view- you get a wider and deeper look at the subject

  5. County Commissioners in Citrus County, Florida, have working brains.

    Commissioners call New York Times ‘fake news,’ deny library funding for digital subscriptions

    The Citrus County Commission came to a consensus at the end of October: The county should not spend roughly $2,700 annually to buy digital subscriptions to the New York Times for the 70,000 library-card holders who reside in the county.

    The commissioners were not shy in sharing why they thought it was a waste of money.

    https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida/2019/11/04/commissioners-call-new-york-times-fake-news-deny-library-funding-for-digital-subscriptions/

    🤡

  6. All this attention to polls is absurd Our governance is by representation, and yet we elect representatives and don’t want to let them represent us. We take polls so that the “will of the people” can dictate their vote on everything. That’s called direct democracy, and the founders were smart enough to know that it doesn’t work. Polls reflect the “base emotions of the masses,” which is the worst basis possible for governance of a nation.

    1. Bill Hefner:

      “Polls reflect the “base emotions of the masses,” which is the worst basis possible for governance of a nation.”

      *****************************

      The “base emotions of the masses” is the demeaning term tyrants like Hillary, Stalin and others throughout history always use to subvert popular will. It’s also the rationale Mao used for the Cultural Revolution. We let the “masses” decide everything in this country as they sit on juries and elect judges, county commissioners and city council. And even a fifth grader knows the public’s choice for the overall Executive is not a power they easily cede to a bunch of bought and paid for politicians. And my guess lots of those “masses” are far more rational, urbane and sensible than you and your obsequious deference to our “betters.” Republics are founded to let elected officials and their experts handle the day-to-day operations but the “vision thingy” still goes to the “great unwashed masses” to decide.

      Sorry Democracy is so distasteful for you, Bill. But if stick around here but Saudi is lovely this time of year), you’d better realize the only court that matters isn’t the Senate or some state or federal petit jury but it’s the Court of Public Opinion where verdicts are swift, lethal, and typically unappealable.

    2. generally i would agree with that

      but sometimes polls reflect collective wisdom

      occasionally pollsters measure something worth noticing

  7. Voters can see through the sheer raw power grab the Dems have been on since they lost in 2016. The lies the Dem leaders have told for 3 years were transparent and this final salvo against the President just confirmed what everyone has known. The Democrats are about power not the people.

  8. I’m not going to check, but I wonderdid this poll also over sample dem voters 3 to 1?

    If so I’d think the dem leadership is really crapping their drawers.

  9. On the contrary: a lot of independent voters such as myself never took any of it seriously to begin with. That goes for a whole lot of what the dems have done since at least 2012. We were never on board, and I’m never voting dem again as they currently stand. That’s just a fact.

  10. None of these polls are particularly reliable, so who knows what anyone thinks.

    Still, it’s amusing to imagine Peter Hill’s upset after he finishes reading the Bezos Birdcage Liner, finishes reading the Sulzberger Birdcage Liner, gets his 2d cup of coffee, and then sees this.

      1. in point of fact Mayor Peter has ties to Bloomberg, he was part of Bloomberg’s NGO/ policy group called “Mayors Against Illegal Guns” or something like that

        they have fiddled with the name over time, since its acronym which was eclipsed by MAGA

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everytown_for_Gun_Safety

        gun control is a super unpopular scheme in Indiana

        i have seen good Democrats run on an openly pro gun platform more than once

        even the NW sector is pro gun. steel workers are often firearms enthusiasts
        to say nothing of Teamsters ….union guys love guns in general
        I know a 4 generation Teamster family that’s equally as devoted to hunting as they are trucking

      1. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/267126-trump-bloomberg-old-friends-no-more

        This article is nearly 4 years old, when Trump was beginning to look like he could win the nomination.
        Since Bloomberg is said to be planning a $100 million blitz of anti- Trump ads in key states, Trump “might” even resort to going negative against Bloomberg.
        He’s already started to insult Bloomberg……completely out of character for Trump, who normally takes the high road.😉

        1. https://thehill.com/homenews/media/472019-bloomberg-union-calls-on-company-to-rescind-decision-against-covering-2020

          Bloomberg News has announced that they will not investigate candidate Bloomberg, and that position is being challenged by the union.
          Bloomberg is wealthy enough to buy the WaPo, NY Times, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc. If he was able to buy up all of them, maybe there’d be a “no investigation” blackout across the media board.

  11. “I do not believe that impeachments should only go forward with public support. If members believe that a president has committed impeachable acts, they should impeach. Indeed, some impeachable offenses could well be popular with the public.”
    **********
    In what universe would treason, bribery and/or high crimes and misdemeanors be popular with the public? This is sophistry at worst or elitism at best. The public has already spoken after seeing this kangaroo court. This impeachment is DOA in the Senate and with the American people. If the handlers in the House want to commit political suicide, let them proceed. I’ll bring the popcorn.

    1. Mespo,
      Unfortunately, it is only DOA for those who haven’t already decided Trump has been guilty since ever. The ideologically-possessed are out there and they are certain he should be impeached. Thanksgiving should be interesting for a lot of families…

      1. Prairie Rose….as far as family Thanksgiving dinners this year: Best to hide the metal utensils, specifically, the carving knives.
        Have your loved ones just grab what they want off the bone with their hands. Uncouth and improper yes, but it could save a life.

    2. If the president started creating his own laws, or simply refused to implement laws congress passed, then that would be a valid reading to impeach, even if what he did was popular.

          1. Legislating by executive order. You prefer someone who dictates from the office of the president rather than a democratic decision per our representatives in the House and Senate?

  12. Impeaching the president because we don’t like him is asinine. It’s almost as we have learned nothing from the 2016 elections. Hillary was given the questions before debates, Hillary was given assurances regarding the super delegates, the DNC trashed Bernie for Hillary, and the DNC went to Ukraine to get dirt on Trump, it’s actually documented by emails between the DNC and the Ukrainian embassy personnel. Why the hell would we do that, when we had mounts of dirt on the guy just around the corner? It’s obvious to any reasonable human being that the call between Trump and Z points to no crime at all. Only those with snowflake sensibility can find something terribly wrong in it. How about helping the 2020 Dem candidates to iron out some of the crazy-shit plans they’re proposing? How about getting behind one of these candidates with passion? … well, that’s going to be a problem because unless we all see that Yang and Tulsi are the most reasonable candidates, this ship has sailed and we’ve been left behind. I don’t vote for Dems anymore. We Latinos, the reasonable ones, are tired of all the damn lies and promises. I’m doing a hell of a lot better under Trump now, why would I want to ruin my situation? Why? The policies are good, the personality sucks.

  13. I don’t know how this could come as a surprise to anyone other than the Koolaid drinkers. The utter quality (or lack there of) of all the players and data on the Dem side seems to have been the catalyst for many Americans to take a second look at just what the Dems have been up to since 2009.

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