In academia, one of the greatest concerns with statistical studies is the danger of “confirmation bias” or “myside bias.” A desire to prove a point can lead to a blindness to opposing data or information. This week, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D., Minn.) repeatedly demonstrated the scourge of statistical studies with spectacular and embarrassing success.
Klobuchar released a chart before Thanksgiving to blame President Donald Trump for rising consumer costs. The only problem is that the chart showed that the skyrocketing costs occurred under former President Joe Biden. Klobuchar focused on the short period on the chart representing Trump’s second presidency, while ignoring the soaring costs under his predecessor.
What is most notable is that just the week before, Klobuchar committed the same error, associating rising energy costs with Trump, who saw energy costs soar under Biden. The response was withering:
Confirmation bias has been previously prevalent among politicians like Klobuchar. Of course, many simply do not care if the statistical claims are true in advancing their immediate political agenda. However, many can fall victim to their own desire for facts to be true and the bias can actually increase with more information:
“Worryingly, when the politicians were given more pieces of information on performance, they actually performed worse, relying more heavily on their prior attitudes. That means the issue cannot simply be addressed by relying on civil servants to provide more or better evidence for policy making – especially since civil servants are not immune from motivated reasoning themselves.”
For Klobuchar, the charts proved an absolute face planting. However, in our largely siloed news market, many citizens will receive such claims without seriously reviewing the underlying chart or data.
The irony is that, for those who did review the data, the claim only resulted in highlighting the countervailing message put out by the White House.
That is the pesky problem with trend charts. As Adlai Stevenson noted, “we can chart our future clearly and wisely only when we know the path which has led to the present.” That “path” was clearly laid out, and then ignored, by Sen. Klobuchar.
Why is our politics so based on people haughtily accusing others of what they also do themselves?
Doctor, heal thyself.
Turley says: “Klobuchar released a chart before Thanksgiving to blame President Donald Trump for rising consumer costs. The only problem is that the chart showed that the skyrocketing costs occurred under former President Joe Biden. Klobuchar focused on the short period on the chart representing Trump’s second presidency, while ignoring the soaring costs under his predecessor.”
This chart HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH SKYROCKETING COSTS which both Klobuchar and Turley failed to notice and articulate. The chart is not representing the cost of electricity. It is showing the average past-due balances of Americans, which soared since 2022 under Joe Biden’s presidency.