John Adams once wrote: “America … the opening of a grand scene and design in providence, for the illumination of the ignorant.”
Unfortunately, this week, the “grand scene and design in Providence [R.I.]” “illuminated” rather than eliminated the ignorance of our times. Liberals in that city, including the mayor Brett Smiley, demanded the removal of a mural in the memory of Iryna Zarutska, a young woman murdered on a train. Unlike memorials to figures like George Floyd or others, a memorial to the young white woman was deemed triggering and “divisive.”
On Aug.22, Zarutska was stabbed to death in a random and unprovoked attack on a light rail train in Charlotte, North Carolina. Shocking surveillance video of the incident showed suspect Decarlos Brown Jr. allegedly stabbing Zarutska in the neck before walking away. Brown has a long record in the criminal justice system with more than 14 arrests and prison stints of five years.
The mural was set on the exterior of The Dark Lady, an LGBT bar in Providence. The bar immediately became the focus of a cancel campaign and eventually caved.
Providence’s Democrat Mayor Brett Smiley then joined the mob and denounced the mural to Zarutska, calling it “divisive” and saying that it “does not represent Providence.”
He seemed to strike out at artist Ian Gaudreau and said that the city would “support local artists whose work brings us closer together rather than divide us.”
Providence is not the only place where these memorials have been defaced or destroyed. In Chicago, a mural to Zarutska was defaced.
Gaudreau lashed out at the campaign and the local politicians who destroyed his artwork as an attack on free expression.
Smiley and other Democrats, however, piled on the artist and the work as an attack on minorities and a message of white victimization.
Smiley told WPRI that memorializing this young woman is an effort of right-wing billionaires, and it found its way to our community.”
“I didn’t stifle anyone’s speech, it was his decision whether to continue with it or to take it down, but it certainly wasn’t bringing us together as a community…so I don’t think we’re a stronger, more united community because of this mural, and so I thought the best thing to do was just to take it down.”
What is most striking is how hypocrites like Smiley actively fuel this rage while insisting that they are the voices of tolerance. He and other liberals in Providence cannot tolerate even the image of a murdered young woman in their city.
This is a city that loves to repeat its motto, “What cheer, Netop,” the greeting from 1636 from early interactions with local Native Americans, meaning “Greeting Friend.” It seems the faux welcoming culture doesn’t extend to those with opposing views or different values.
An historian of the future could look back at the horrific murder of Iryna Zarutska as an emblem of the moral rot that has overtaken this country since the 1960’s. The Democratic Party decided after WW II to pursue a policy of Race-Politics to turn African-Americans into a reliable voting bloc in northern big cities. This policy involved dividing society into racial groups and creating a Marxist narrative that the majority Caucasian population was engaged in a conspiracy, sometimes involving violence, to keep blacks from success. In other words, blacks are a permanent victim of the oppressive white population.
In order to establish and perpetuate this narrative, it is necessary to overhype every death of a black person caused by a white (George Floyd) as undeniable proof of the narrative, and to ignore the much more common death of a white person caused by a black person (Iryna Zarutska). Where the death of a white person cannot be wholly ignored, as in this case, the people who refuse to be silent about it are targeted. As a result, one of the most important topics of our time — the high rate of violence by African-American males — is impossible to discuss or even think about.
As to the lack of outrage as to the death of this young and innocent woman, I am reminded of the words of Edmund Burke about the silence of Europe regarding the execution of Marie Antoinette. He wrote that would have believed that every sword in Europe would have been drawn to defend her. But he saw the chivalry of Europe had somehow died and been replaced by the spirit of the timid. Thus it has happened to us.
It’s lawlessness and under that condition the true self is exposed.
I dislike all murals on exterior of buildings. They’re eyesores. I’d ban them in my town if I were mayor.
I cannot justify, rationalize, apologize for Providence RI. I can’t say there are good faith arguments on both sides.
Providence again proves to the world the incredible filth of the demonrat mindset. The Beast KILLED Beauty and now the beasts are killing the memory .
American citizens kill more more American citizens both by absolute numbers and per capita than immigrants do.
That’s where the moral rot exists, in Americans.
As to the casual racist reference to Black males, the majority of all violence is from males of all colors, with a concentration of violence among the impoverished. The continuing racist practices against Black Americans keeps pressure on to capture them in poverty.
☢️Bunkering Down☢️
Pinnacle Nucflash 2000 hours – TUESDAY APRIL 7th 2026 –
(twenty hundred EDT – https://www.timeanddate.com/time/zones/edt)
Trump gives Iran Tuesday evening deadline to open Strait of Hormuz after warning of strikes in fiery post: report
U.S. President Donald Trump said his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on critical infrastructure is Tuesday evening, according to an interview he gave to the Wall Street Journal on Sunday. “If they don’t do something by Tuesday evening, they won’t have any power plants and they won’t have any bridges standing,” Trump told the Journal. Trump later posted on social media, without mentioning Iran or any other details: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!” -New York Post
“If it happens, it happens. And if it doesn’t, we’re blowing up the whole country. We’re blowing up, as I said, it’s going to be bridge day and it’s going to be power plant day in the country of Iran.” -ABC News
By: Reuters ~ April 5, 2026
[Link] nypost.com/2026/04/05/us-news/trump-gives-iran-tuesday-evening-deadline-to-open-strait-of-hormuz-after-warning-of-strikes-in-fiery-post/
Art. Ref.: [Link] truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116353078945787501
PREP: If you don’t have ‘it’, You’d better get it tomorrow in the morning.
A Reddit user on r/providence asks “what makes this particular murder worthy of a mural in Providence, RI?”.
murder worthy. She’s not murder worthy enough for them. can you believe that?
According to 2024 data, the city recorded 536 violent crimes (including 12 murders, 40 rapes, 108 robberies, and 376 assaults), translating to a victimization chance of approximately 1 in 363 for violent crime
I hope dems keep running on this pro-crime platform, I’m sure it will work out for them
True, when Googled if Providence is safe it said Yes, it’s a safe city but it’s better to go out in groups. If you know someone ask them to go with you.
Good one Google. Omg.
Providence is a gay business mecca. Quite amazing no regret for a murder of a young woman. They didn’t care about Jocelyn Nungaray either.
Happy Easter folks.
What the American Founders held as intent and decided regarding Decarlos Brown Jr. et al.:
Naturalization Acts of 1790, 1795, 1798, 1802
United States Congress, “An act to establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization,” March 26, 1790
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America, in Congress assembled, That any Alien being a free white person, who shall have resided within the limits and under the jurisdiction of the United States for the term of two years, may be admitted to become a citizen thereof….
Anything since then?
The liberals guilt they feel when they see the mural is why they want it gone. The liberals know the fault is all theirs and hate being reminded of that.
😂 guilt? Seriously? They need to hide it having nothing to do with conscience.
Today there’s been comparison between two deaths, in reality there is no need for comparison they are both victims of government neglect. One was a law-abiding innocent rider on municipal bus and not treating, the other was a law breaking drugged non-compliant individual. The first victim was assailed by a repeat offender that had been released repeatedly by a failed Judicial System, ‘out of the clear blue sky I think I’ll stab someone in the neck today.’ The second victim was a known criminal who had tried passing a counterfeit bill which had prompted the police who then encounter a rebellious individual who succumbed to police restraint. The second was a victim of government policies that were introduced and administered by the Illiterate democrat ‘Theory of Mind’ concept, which preaches EMPATHY: ‘oh you poor soul, you were raised poor and have remained poor by no fault of your-own.’
Neither should have died, the blame lays with the Rose-Colored Glasses and Padded Shoulders the democrat left wears to shield them from blame, it’s always someone else is the evil doer, ‘SEE WHAT!’.
This demonstrates why the moral was considered divisive. I couldn’t think of a better argument against it.
Isn’t this phrased deceptively? No art was actually destroyed and the mayor did nothing but speak his mind. Who would think that it would last long on a gay bar since it is clearly a product of the same right which attacks LGBTQ? This just seems like a publicity stunt.
Fostered by ????
yet we have no mural! the Great magician, The Amazing Smiley made it disappear!
You do not understand what conservatives believe and are completely misinformed of the facts of this case and yet you post here.
The right does not attack LGBTQ. You don’t own the LGBTQ “community” if there was one. Go divide somewhere else idiot.
He had permission. The permission was withdrawn after complaints. Lawsuit to follow.
Gw, get down to the kernel, a man died while under police restraint and a woman died after a man cut her throat.
The 1st is passive let die. The second is active killing. Not the same
You believe the Police had intent, i don’t.
No, the police let him die, not active killing. It’s before narcan but no CPR given. Narcan was given by paramedics too late. Police let him die or nature took its course. Would CPR have saved him? Unkn. Police are required to administer CPR is my understanding. Police actions were further negligent by physical restraints and callous. They made no attempt to save his life but promptly called an ambulance. Manslaughter?
Iryna was healthy and the murderer actively killed her.
Required to use CPR. They didn’t care if he died but did not administer a deadly drug. All people are expected to save lives and police are mandated. I do not see the 2 deaths as equivalent.
The policeman may be a loon as was the train killer. Both very dangerous.
Just stripping it down to essentials.
Good of you to equate a lunatic with the normal function of the police force. Both showed the same callous disregard for life, but only one is paid a large amount of money by the public to commit ad hoc executions.
My guess is you have exceeded the speed limit many times and, with your law-and-order stance, will be asking to be put into prison on the off chance you will become a violent killer and use a car to run people over.
The building is owned by 115 Harris LLC a subsidiary of Strive Reality. The club is owned by Buck and Henry or something Buck and John. Permits must be obtained or murals registered ACT arts and culture etc in Providence RI. the building was purchased in 2024 to be restructured as a hotel. Perhaps the Gray Lady will be relocated as well.
Musk may own Strive Realty or may very soon. 😂
^^^Certainly he make an offer for the building they can’t refuse, tear the building down and leave it vacant.
As to free speech, there isn’t any in Providence. Did the mural contain the words of the murderer,
“I killed that white woman”. It leads to the question were there any other dead women on the train? It’s a racist statement if not. Perhaps Providence objects to racism in this case.
The muralist is out time and money in the “relocation”.
Great job Providence
^^^ he can make…
Lgbt thinks white women can be murdered.
Stay away from there
Why must anyone obtain a permit to paint their own building ?
Stride realty owns the building. If murals can be publicly viewed registration or permit…
Perhaps the muralist chose at random without permission of any kind? Do you know. That’s all I’ve found.
😂 They club painted over the mural. Let’s see…I don’t believe it’s their building. Research it.
^^^ the club—sorry
It comes to:
a cover for racism?
The environment allowed lgbt to voice white women can be killed?
The killer of Iryna was arrested and released 14x? Training him to think he’s immune. It allowed his instinct, hatred of white women, to surface resulting in murder.
Iryna is not part of Providence values? We don’t value white women unless they’re lesbian? Moslem?
Ok, good to know Providence. Just instinct surfacing, acting out.
What was he arrested for that indicated to -you- that he should receive a life sentence in prison?
Ok, one more comment JS, in an interview reported by the California Post , mayor Smiley said the owners of the building gave pension to put up the mural. Backlash happened and the owner asked Smiley what he thought. Smiley told him it should be taken down.
Murals for Iryna have been commissioned across the nation. Musk contributed 1 million. Presumably there are others. Chicago defaced an Iryna mural and artists have suffered.
It sounds like this artist will file on speech and expression.
That’s my wrap.
Public view mural, registration. A guess on it. Anyone can paint any eyesore on their own building.
Strive owns almost every house and property in the area around Providence College and beyond. Smiley is “about to” veto the Commie rent control idea from the marxist Providence City Council. THAT’S what’s going on. local politics and graft, nothing to see here. Just some strong-arming non-compliant land owners. this is how dems govern.
Screw their commie “Permits”, american citizen’s don’t need the approval of government to speak. SUE THEM!
😂 Thanks anon, Smiley the rabid gay…yes, white women can be murdered.
RIP Iryna 🙏
These are the direct and mortal enemies of sanity, logic, coherence, decency, civility, decorum, the American thesis of freedom and self-reliance, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, Americans, and America.
Whatever shall we do with the enemy?
I know, pussyfoot around, allowing them to invade, conquer, subjugate, and globalize.
Precisely what the American Founders did, right?
Americans shall now be known as “Modern Milquetoasts,” waving goodbye to their country.
I am beginning to think that the gap may be unbridgeable between those who cherish civil society and are horrified by this beautiful woman’s death on the one hand and those who celebrate our destruction on the other.
They should beware of making us hate them as much as they hate us.
And they are getting there.
Broadly related:
https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/the-renegade-academy
Hate them, Young? That would twist your heart, your soul. Perhaps that’s their goal. Their goal is to corrupt hearts with hatred. Be reasonable in all you do and it won’t require hate to do what must be done.
Would it twist your soul to hate Hitler ?
Would it corrupt your heart ?
There is nothing wrong with hating things that are truly hateful.
Thank you, John.
It’s your soul, Young. Hate is an awful emotion. It leads to folly as surely as love can.
John, A word more. I don’t hate easily nor, do I suspect, do you. But I felt the genuine thing on October 7 and I posted here that I thought Israel was being too gentle. I would have favored carpet bombing all of Gaza and killing everyone there. When folks here posted they were like Nazis I said they were worse. The Nazis showed that at some level they knew what they were doing was evil because they tried to hide it. They dug up bodies of thousands they murdered and burnt the bodies to conceal the atrocity at Babi Yar. But the Oct 7 monsters boasted of their horrors. They were proud of them. They celebrated when the naked body of a savaged Israeli girl was paraded through the streets in the back of a pickup. They were worse than Nazis to the core of their evil souls.
As for Iran, the regime needs to be destroyed and the people freed. They cheer American and Israeli bombing and are afraid it will stop. Watch Tousi TV for excellent and informed coverage.
Then carpet bomb it for reason.
Israel killed 7,000 Palestinians in Gaza in the prior decade and kept 7,000 more in prison without charge. Since the population ratio is 5 Israelis per Palestinian, the effective number would be 35,000 killed by Israel vs the 1,500 dead on Oct 7th. Since participation in the military is mandatory in Israel almost all killed in Israel were military targets. There are few actual civilians in Israel, regardless of the Israeli propaganda.
Israel now has killed nearly 100,000 Palestinians. To be equivalent, damage to the Israeli population would see half a million Israelis dead.
The Israelis set up lawn chairs and ate picnic lunches and drank wine while cheering the deaths of Palestinians during the Israeli missile strikes on apartment buildings and hospitals in Gaza. They were not somber at the supposed necessity, but openly gleeful at the cruelty.
The typical Israeli believes themself to be the only humans on the planet with everyone else being disposable scum. They are, after all, the ones chosen by God to have mastery of the Earth.
Hate isn’t necessary. Reason is necessary.
Did you take a graduate course in sententiousness?
😂. Just helping. Hatred obscures reason.
Hatred gives reason an objective. Reason alone is inert.
I said at the time that Israel should finish Hamas and Gaza quickly and thoroughly knowing that the world would criticize them but forget in a few weeks. No matter what the Israelis did they would be criticized and by going gently they gave time for her enemies to perfect their propaganda and put Israel on the back foot in world opinion. Take advantage of poor memories and short attention spans.
Who remembers Venezuela except Cuba who may be next?
But I am enjoying the way America and Israel are slaughtering the IRGC and the mullahs. Videos of these monsters being blown up are very satisfying. Couldn’t be prouder of America and her magnificent ally, Israel.
Young would support a poison gas attack on Gaza, killing every living thing there. Maybe mustard gas, so the children could feel their lungs dissolving and gasping for breath on live TV for Young’s personal gratification. They could toss the corpses into large wood chippers to dispose of the easy recognition of the bodies as human. Young would clap his hands and squeal with joy at the sight.
The victim’s political views are unknown. She was an immigrant. She was a woman stabbed to death by a criminal. In what way is honoring her memory controversial or divisive, unless the objectors think being pro-murder is a reasonable position on the issues? This really makes no sense.
Oldman– “the objectors think being pro-murder is a reasonable position on the issues? This really makes no sense.”
It is a black attacking white issue. Then the rush to bury it makes sense in today’s corrupt media environment.
If a white thug had murdered a young, pretty black woman in the same way we wouldn’t hear the end of it. Neither should be forgotten.
People who want a safer neighborhood need to organize to identify CRT judges who keep letting these monsters loose, and oppose their reelection.
Ditto for prosecutors.
So you think it’s racist, Young? The murderer said, “I killed that white woman”, as he exited.
Was there some other dead woman on the train?
Yes, it was racist as are many of the other random, stranger attacks by blacks on whites and Asians.
Unfortunately the narratives pushed by media appear to be designed for the purpose of promoting racial hatred.
I thought it was sloppy reporting until the Duke Lacrosse case and the Trayvon Martin case coverage exposed deliberate falsehoods that generally seemed to be intended to stoke racial animosity. I wondered then “Why would they do that? It is so harmful.” I still don’t know why. Duke faculty and the Obama administration were behind some of it as well.
Oh, it’s punishment. You didn’t know? It doesn’t affect everyone.
It’s disgusting.
Happy Easter ☺
Ah, they’re burying it because of racism. Covering the shame? I’d say they have none.
Liberals are pro murder as long as it’s not their loved ones. No other explanation for liberal’s crime policies.
Iryna’s murderer was created by 14 releases. The intention was to form a murderer. The judiciary formed murderer capacity.
Because the only reason this victim is so honored is to attack all immigrants. You have never honored a woman stabbed to death by her husband. Not even once. You likely blame women killed by husbands and boyfriends for their (your opinion) stupidly not leaving the relationship. Had she died in a car accident, no one would be putting up a mural.
This mural is racist baiting.
Unlike Louisiana’s jocular Senator, the lot who support the mindset addressed in this post will never be diagnosed as negative for stupid and, unfortunately, there is no vaccine to prevent same. The world will tragically be forced to suffer these fools until all they and of their progeny are spent.
Mayor Smiley just suppressing political speech he doesn’t like. I hope the artist realizes he can sue…
Explain how a mayor has any say in a cities art? or political speech?
“message of white victimization.” can’t have THAT can we?
they see everything through identity and the individual doesn’t exist, gets erased, even from buildings.
The mural said:
“The government f***ed-up and this poor girl paid with her life”
That is not speech a manipulative government would promote as it’s anti-status-quo.
However it IS the truth. This is as much of a failure of government as the trash and urban decay all around.
It makes as much sense and is non reality based as– jurisdiction means if you’re in Japan and you’ve stolen a wallet you’ll be be charged with theft (paraphrase). Reference is 14A.
Happy Easter! 🐰 🥚 💐 and the meaning of the most holy day.
^^^ KBJ thinks all human behavior is on the spectrum of normal.
Psych eval
Funny, Turley uses a cop to monitor his blog… a black cop no less! A black cop to monitor and punish a mob of white crazies.
How do you know that?
Turley had a side section talking about a guy who helps him named Darren or Daryl, wrote resume about him. A cop, black guy.
That side section was removed recently. Turley wants to hide something.
Yea right. You can’t even get his name straight and we’re supposed to believe anything you say Anondumbous.
Let’s see… can you name the person anon’s referring to? You didn’t, so that makes you stupid
Off subject. Iran is beginning to holler uncle and tap out. Ships are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says that the ships that are being allowed through have no ties to the U.S. but if you research it you will find that many of these countries have strong ties with the U.S. Tankers from India are being let through and India has a very strong association with the U.S. Trump said that other nations have the responsibility to apply pressure on Iran to keep the strait open and it is exactly what they are doing.
My source is from a magazine that has been in no way friendly to the Trump administration.
https://www.newsweek.com/countries-transiting-strait-hormuz-passage-11783702
WOW newsweek? Talk about shocked.
Thinkitthrough
You completely misunderstand what is going on here.
Iran is not “beginning to holler uncle and tap out”.
The exact opposite is true.
What they are doing is demonstrating that they have complete control of the Strait. By picking and choosing who to let pass they demonstrate to the world that any country that does not explicitly support the US and Israel will be allowed to pass.
The Newsweek article you cite makes it perfectly clear what is going on. In letter dated March 22 from Iran and sent to members of the International Maritime Organization clarified that “non-hostile” ships can pass through the strait, meaning any ship that has no ties to the U.S. or Israel can transit the waterway, defined as nations that “neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran.”
They define a country with no ties to the US or Israel as one that “neither participates in nor support acts of aggression against Iran.”
So far, they have allowed ships from China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Philippines and Bangladesh to pass. Just recently Japanese ships have been allowed to pass, and both France and Italy have announced that they are actively negotiating with Iran for safe passage.
Iran is willing to consider safe passage for any country willing to demonstrate that they do not support the war. That includes most of Europe, which is why France and Italy are negotiating.
At this point Iran has total control of world oil prices. The price has more than doubled. They are making out like bandits. China buys 80% of their output and they have free passage, so Iran is selling all its oil at twice the price, while simultaneously restricting supplies from other Arab countries to the West. Not only that, at China’s suggestion, Iran is demanding that payments for the oil must be made in Chinese yuan.
Why is that important?
China has always had a long term goal of “de-dollarization”. They have always wanted to replace the US dollar as the world’s default reserve currency. They see this as an opportunity to replace the dollar with the yuan, and Iran is absolutely delighted to go along with this plan.
So you see, Iran is in total control here. They are selling all their oil at higher prices to friendly nations.
Meanwhile, they also control the world oil prices by choking off the supply from other Arab nations to the West.
Anonymous, read it again. The News Week article plainly states that Iran is letting tankers through from countries that have no ties to The U.S. Iran is letting ships through from India.
Indian companies have a significant presence in the USA, largely driven by IT services, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, with major hubs in states like New Jersey, California, and Texas. Key players include TATA Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, and Sun Pharma, alongside a growing number of Indian-founded startups and tech firms. You could have found this information before you responded with your long winded screed. Many of the tankers from other countries with strong ties to the U.S. are also being let through the strait. This information is easily found. It just doesn’t support your preconceived narrative so you just ignore it. It’s obvious that you didn’t read the entire article before you went off half informed. Next time bring your receipts. Reality to Anonymous. Anonymous can you hear me. Come in Anonymous.
Thinkitthrough
You are still missing the point.
The Newsweek article says that ships with “no ties to the US or Israel” can pass, but that is their interpretation of what Iran said. Iran sent a letter to the UN and the International Maritime Organization saying the following:
“Non-hostile vessels, including those belonging to or associated with other States, may – provided that they neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran and fully comply with the declared safety and security regulations – benefit from safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the competent Iranian authorities,”
Iran is defining vessels that will be allowed to pass as those that do not take part in, or support the war, not simply countries with ties to the US.
All of the countries that have been allowed to pass have refused to participate in the war or publicly support the US and Israel. All a country has to do is satisfy Iran that they are neutral with respect to the war and they can pass safely. As long as they do not participate or express support for US and Israel with respect to the war, then they are good to go.
All of the nations currently allowed to pass have some sort of economic ties to the US, but as long as they are neutral with respect to the war, then they have no problem.
Iran is not showing weakness by allowing ships from nations with “ties to the US” to pass. This is a display of strength, because they can peel off nations that do have economic ties with the US from expressing support for the war. In effect, they are forcing those countries that DO have economic ties to the US to remain neutral with respect to the war.
This is a display of strength that shows that they have total control of the situation. They are making it almost impossible for countries with economic ties to the US to support the war. They are effectively isolating the US and Israel, from their economic allies.
This can be seen by the refusal of European nations to allow the US to use their airspace in the war. Italy, France and Spain have denied the use of US bases in their countries to support the war and have denied the use of their airspace.
So Iran is in total control from a position of considerable strength.
thinkitthrough doesn’t think any through. Their goal is to imagine justifications that aren’t supported by reality for Trump.
India doe not have significant military ties to the United States. particularly in the area of allowing the US to base military operations there. Most every country has economic ties to the US, but it’s not the money that concerns Iran, it is the ability to fly bombers and launch missiles into Iran that is the concern.
ATS
So much misinformation in one post.
Is Iran about to “tap out” ? I have no idea. I am not sure their is enough cohesive Iranian control to chose to surrender.
Claiming Iran is doing Well in ANYTHING right now is really pretty much lying.
No Iran does not have “complete control of the straight”
The only vessels that Iran has struck during this entire conflict have been Chinese.
Iran has not mined the straight as they claimed – they are unable too.
It is NOT clear whether they have the ability to actually close the straight.
Numerous vessels have turned off transponders and made the passage at night.
Regardless, Iran has not attacked ANY vessel attempting to “run the straight”.
For the most part most vessels are not transiting the straight because they do not KNOW what Iran is still capable of.
B52’s have been carpet bombing Irans side of the straight for more than a week. While Iran has antiship missles in hardened bunkers all along the straight,
It is not known yet if they have been destroyed or otherwise made inoperative.
We will not know until some country that Iran has not blessed transits the strait in daylight with transponders on.
Regardless of whether Iran has the ability to close the straight at the moment, Any such ability they have is limited to what the US allows them to have.
There is zero doubt that the US has the forces in the region to absolutely open the straight right now.
You say Iran is leveraging the Straight – much more obviously Trump is leveraging the straight.
The arab countries in the gulf are not significantly impaired by a short term closing. Whatever oil they do not sell now, they will later.
They all have plenty of cash reserves.
Who is harmed by this ? Europe gets a significant portion of its oil from the Gulf. China gets a massive portion of its energy from the gulf.
Gulf nations are also one of China’s largest trade partners. News from China is hard to come by but most of it is bad.
China has a very large number of economic and political problems made worse by this.
Poorly reported protests in China dwarfed those in Iran in January.
Is China on the verge of imminent collapse – similar to Cuba ? Probably not. Are Xi’s days numbered – certainly.
I would further note that 63% of Iran’s weapons come from China and they have performed Abysmally – much of the rest came from Russia.
The raid on Maduro, the disastrous performance of Russian systems in Ukraine and the worse performance of Russian and Chinese systems in Iran TWICE – now and in June of last year – as well as the pi$$ poor performance of Chinese systems against India more than a year ago are leaving the nations of the world rethinking Chinese and Russian weapons purchases for a LONG LONG time to come.
The marines are in the region now. They can take the Iran side of the Straights whenever they want.
The recent rescue operations of Two US airmen proved the ability of US forces in the region to do whatever they want inside of Iran.
While there were a few injuries and some lost equipment – no americans were killed and both airmen were rescued, and lots of IRGC are now dead.
Regardless, Iran does not control the straights of Hormuz – Trump does. He can open it anytime he wants.
What he wants is to leverage this to get the Europeans to act in their own interests.
You say Iran has demonstrated its ability to blackmail the world using the Straight.
Then Why not UAE ? Oman ? Saudi Arabia ?
Iran has no more ability to blackmail Europe and Asia with the Straits than other nations along or adjacent to the straights.
The point that all but those on the left fail to grasp is that it is in the worlds interests – particularly Europe and Asia, that NO nation can threaten shipping through the straits.
Iran should be very concern if Marines take the straights – because if they do – Iran is not likely to get control back.
you say Iran is blackmailing Europe – so is Trump, because frankly though Europe has SOME resources that it could commit to opening the straights – if Europe was capable of doing so, it would be difficult and costly. While the US can do so with relative ease.
I would further note with respect to the long term – there is a possibility of a Canal through Oman, More reasonably pipelines bypassing the straights – these already exist and can be expanded. As well as pipeline and land routes north from the gulf.
The least expensive way to transport most goods long distances is via ship. But the least expensive means of transporting energy and natural gas is via pipeline.
But the really really big deal here is that just as the Ukraine war has exposed Russia as a paper Tiger, the Iran war has exposed Europe as impotent to protect its own interests.
Trump is threatening to leave NATO again – that is not happening. That is just an effort to get Europe to get its priorities in order.
The US is increasingly less and less interested in providing for Europes defence arround the world, given that Europe clearly does not have the US’s back – even when we are protecting europe more than ourselves. Long before Iran is a major threat to the US, it is a threat to Europe and to its neighbors in the mideast.
This conflict has highlighted that threat as well as highlighting Iran’s weakeness, and Europe impotence.
You somehow think that is a win for Iran ?
Even China is going to be far less trusting of Iran in the future – Iran has been holding oil to China hostage in an effort to get China to provide even more advanced weapons that China does not want to sell. And China does NOT wish to put itself in the position of actively providing Iran with weapons in the middle of a conflict with the US.
Contra your Claims – Iran is not reaping a bonanza. It is still subject to sanctions – nor does Iran have the capacity to come close to replacing a fraction of the energy of other gulf nations – and Trump has made it clear that Iran’s energy systems have thus far NOT been targeted only because the US wants a healthy and strong Iran after this conflict is over.
The US could more easily occupy Kharg Island than seize the Iranian side of the straights
Or we could just destroy energy fascilities on Kharg island and put Iran out of the energy business – even domestic energy for atleast a year.
Contra YOUR claim Iran has no aces up its sleave.
At the moment it has no ability to project power of to blackmail other nations than what Trump allows it to have.
Thus far the Iran conflict has focused on the Basij, the IRGC, the Iranian leadership and Iran’s ability to threaten neighbors.
The US has NOT taken out oil refineries, Energy production, Bridges, power plants or other infrastructure that would leave Iran crippled for a long time after this is over.
At some point Trump may decide that Oil for Europe and Asia is more important.
As Trump said to Zelenski a year ago – Iran has “no cards”.
The outcome of this is nearly entirely in Trump’s hands.
He can declare victory and walk away at anytime, or he can take steps that will force Iran to capitulate, but also will lead to far more of a mess in Iran when this ends.
“What they are doing is demonstrating that they have complete control of the Strait”
ROFL
“By picking and choosing who to let pass they demonstrate to the world that any country that does not explicitly support the US and Israel will be allowed to pass.”
ATS – if it chose to do so Israel alone could ACTUALLY close the straights. Or it could obliterate Iran’s energy fascilities.
Iran has the control over the straights that Trump and Israel allow them to have NO MORE.
“At this point Iran has total control of world oil prices.”
Nope.
“The price has more than doubled.”
Which means US frackers are receiving a windfall and more Fracking is going on all the time.
The Saudis tried to put US frackers out of business a long long time ago.
Perhaps you have heard of the laws of supply and demand.
When prices rise two things occur simultaneously – demand declines and supply increases until an equalibrium is reached.
“They are making out like bandits.”
Nope – Iran is still sanctioned – they are selling very little oil – this cnflict has barely changed that.
“China buys 80% of their output and they have free passage,”
It is ONLY chinese ships that Iran has actually attacked – more than once.
Iran is actively restricting oil to China – because China will not sell Iran the advanced weapons they want.
You get shallow first order analysis from the left wing nut MSM and never bother to consider anything beyond that
The US is the largest producer of Crude in the world – followed by Russia, and the Saudis.
Iran produces 4bbl of oil/yr about the same as Iraq and slightly more than UAE – which has ports in the Gulf of Oman uneffected by the straights of Hormuz.
Oman produces 1bbl/yr and is past the straights.
“Iran is demanding that payments for the oil must be made in Chinese yuan.
Why is that important?
China has always had a long term goal of “de-dollarization”. They have always wanted to replace the US dollar as the world’s default reserve currency. They see this as an opportunity to replace the dollar with the yuan, and Iran is absolutely delighted to go along with this plan.”
Wishful thinking. No one with the slightest serious knowledge of money would take the Yuan seriously as a threat to the dollar
For the Yuan to become a global reserve currency it would have to be allowed to be traded freely on world markets.
If that were ever to happen you would see trillions in capital flow out of China overnight.
China does not allow the Yuan to be openly traded and can not allow the Yuan to be openly traded.
You have paid absolutely no attention to economic history over the past couple of decades.
While NOT directly involving China – we first had the bursting of the Russian capital bubble and than later the asian capital bubble.
The US is the only nation in the entire world with a currency that is openly traded, that is available in large enough quantities to function as a global reserve currency,
and that is stable enough in capital flows that its free trade does not destabalize the economy of the country.
We are likely to see over time more trade that is not dollar demonimated. But we are not going to see any currency even manage to come to a close 2nd to the US.
I would separately note – though we will see a rise in trade that is not dollar denominated, There is much more risk associated with such trade. The Russian Rubble has lost half its value compared to the dollar in the past decade and its value fluctuates wildly on a daily basis. That is not good.
Conversely China has practically pegged the Yuan to the dollar – which it can only do by restricting the flow of Capital from inside China to outside.
The value of the Yuan is unchanged over the past decade. It is unchanged since I traveled to China in 1996.
But the moment China allows the truly free exchange of Yuan globally – Trillions of dollars in capital will flow out of China.
“So you see, Iran is in total control here. They are selling all their oil at higher prices to friendly nations.
Meanwhile, they also control the world oil prices by choking off the supply from other Arab nations to the West.”
Iran is in control of WHAT ? You say Iran can sell out at higher prices ? Only if Trump lets them. The US and other nations have stopped Russian and Venezeullan tankers in the recent past and confiscated them. The only reason that we are not confiscating Iranian tankers is because the US benefits.
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You say Iran can prevent unfriendly nations from transiting the straights.
The US can prevent anyone from transiting the straits or anywhere in the world.
If Trump does not want Iranian ships traveling anywhere – he can stop them anytime he wants.
Or just blow up Kharg island.
Please do not play poker – you go all in with a pair of two’s when you KNOW you opponent is holding at least a pair of aces.
John Say, great post and very detailed. As you say, there is a lot of oil in the world. The other national that produce oil will be more than happy to replace any shortage caused by Iran.
Anonymous does not seem to understand that oil is a global commodity.
Iran produces approximately 4% to 5% of the world’s total oil but Anonymous thinks that Iran can choke off the world oil supply. The danger of mines in the Strait has been highly exaggerated.
A mine does not know the difference between a Chinese tanker or a tanker from India.
It’s obvious that Iran has blinked. It’s only using tolls to try to save face. They might cause Iran to
Collect a little money but if no nation will sell them weapons the money becomes worthless.
The world nations are making a simple calculation. Is trade with the U.S. more important than trade with Iran? The answer to this question doesn’t take a genius. This is why Anonymous can’t answer it.
John Say’s post is nothing but the delusional rambling of a lunatic.
TiT, you say that Iran produces only 5% of the world’s oil, and there is plenty of oil in the world, and that other nations will make up for shortages caused by Iran.
The problem is that the shortages are not caused by Iran being unable to sell its oil. China buys 90.8% of Iran’s output, and continues to buy it today. China is very happily buying almost all Iran’s output.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-dominates-iran-oil-exports/
The shortages are occurring because Iran has closed the Strait for export of oil from OTHER Arab countries to the West. They are still selling ALL their oil to China. They are selling all their oil while simultaneously choking off the oil supplied to the West from OTHER regional suppliers. That is why the oil prices have doubled. Iran is choking of supply from other countries while maintaining its own trade.
And you make the even more insane assertion that the world will have to decide whether trade with the U.S. is more important than trade with Iran. You don’t seem to understand that Iran has very limited trade with other countries due to sanctions. They trade mainly with China, Russia and the other regional Arab countries. There is no significant trade with the West. But by closing the Strait, Iran has disrupted the oil trade between the region and all the major Western powers. No one in the West trades with Iran, and those who do trade with them are continuing to do so. There is no decision making to be done about whether to trade with Iran.
And you make and an even more absurd claim that Iran may be making money from the increased oil prices, but that money is useless because they can’t buy weapons. The reality is that Iran is one of the leading arms producers and exporters. While they buy some weapons from Russia and North Korea, and continue to do so, they are in fact one of the world’s leading SUPPLIERS of weapons.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-drone-uavs-russia/
Russia is has been heavily dependent on the use of Iranian missiles and drones in their war on Ukraine.
And as the US and Israel constantly point out, Iran is the main source of weapons for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen.
Iran does not buy significant quantities of weapons, they are a major producer and exporter.
And John Say makes the completely insane comment that the Arab Gulf states are not impaired by the closure of the Strait, because they “all have plenty of cash reserves”.
SO WHAT !!!
That is not the point. The point is that the West is not getting the oil. Whether or not the Gulf States are impaired by the lack of revenue is completely and utterly irrelevant. The point is that the West is not getting the oil it so desperately needs.
The rest of John Say’s comments are just absurd wishful thinking about “what if” scenarios that bear absolutely no reality to what is actually happening right now.
Right now the situation is as follows:
Iran has closed the Strait cutting off 20% of the world oil supply from reaching the West from OTHER countries.
Iran is selling all its oil to China, which has been the case for years.
Iran’s trade is unaffected, because they have no significant trade with countries other than China and Russia because of sanctions.
Iran has total control over the Strait of Hormuz and therefore total control of 20% of the world oil trade.
Iran doesn’t buy weapons, it builds them. Iran is choking off the Arab supply of oil. Apparently the lack of genius is typing on Thinkitthrough’s keyboard.
Paid by the word and no dictionary in the house – another drunken ramble by John Say.
There is something that is glaringly missing. There have been no reports of a Republican official who has called for the removal of a George Floyd memorial because it is too divisive. Just because George was a poster boy red state republicans have not called for the removal of the various types of memorials in his honor. With Democrats, Floyd is deserved of honor but Iryna Zarutska is not. She was brutally murdered because of the left wing mayor’s policies on incarceration so he had her memorial removed to keep his complicity from public view. Stalin would be proud.
I didn’t know that Mayor Smiley had such a large Pro-Murdering-Innocent-Women constituency. Unbelievable.
How can this be divisive. Is there a pro-murdering innocent women on a train community?
Don’t give the left ideas…