Nico Marquardt is 13 years old but he was still apparently smarter than NASA in calculating the chances of a killer asteroid colliding with Earth. Germany’s own Jimmy Neutron not only corrected NASA’s math on the collision of the Apophis asteroid, but it turns out a lot more likely than we thought.
Marquardt saw a problem in the NASA calculations after he decided to review the telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP). Nothing strange there, of course. We all spent our teenage years crunching the math on asteroid path data. But, Marquart concluded that NASA was wrong in finding that there was a 1 in 45,000 chance of the asteroid hitting the Earth. His calculations, which NASA has verified, show that it is more like 1 in 450.
Under his calculations, the asteroid could strike a satellite in 2029 and as a result hit the earth on its next orbit in 2036. There is so much celebration of this little Brainiac’s triumph that no one seems to notice that our chances of global disaster is now 1 in 450, if he is correct — pretty close odds considering the impact. The asteroid would amount to a 1049 foot ball of iron hitting the Atlantic Ocean and wiping out coastal areas and blacking the sky. After we give little Nico his science badge, we may want to discuss the charming apocalyptic event that his figures suggest.
Of course, this only the latest kid to embarrass our scientific and research elite, click here.
For the full story, click here.
“The agency says it has received no contact from Mr Marquardt”
I have it on good authority that Treasury hired him to recalculate the national deficit numbers…it may be that we only are in the hole 450 dollars!
Crisis averted – easy as ‘pi’…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/17/2220084.htm?section=justin
NASA dismisses schoolboy asteroid claims
An artist’s impression of an asteroid crashing into Earth. (Reuters: NASA)
NASA has refuted claims that it has revised its asteroid predictions based on a correction made to them by a 13-year-old German student.
The student, Nico Marquardt, claims there is a 1 in 450 chance the asteroid Apophis will hit the earth, not 1 in 45,000 as NASA calculates.
The student’s claim was based on the the likelihood of the asteroid hitting one of a bank of satellites orbiting the earth.
NASA says there is no chance of this happening and their estimates remain 1 in 45,000, uninfluenced by the student’s claims.
“The asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote,” NASA said in a statement.
The agency says it has received no contact from Mr Marquardt.
As cute as this story is, NASA released a statement today in response, saying in part: “Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.
“This student’s conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid’s close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.”
Still, we are going to get hit by something big someday. And the chilling double-edged sword that Carl Sagan pointed out is that anyone with the technology to deflect an asteroid away from the Earth, automatically has the technology to deflect an asteroid toward the Earth.
“Nothing strange there. We all spent our teenage years crunching the math on asteroid path data.”
I used to recite Pi to 20 places or so to my dates in high school. Thought it showed how cool I was. Needless to say, I had a lot of one-shots.
My high school science fair project was titled: “The Algebra of Rotations in N Dimensions.” Seriously.
Now, I can’t even balance my checkbook or remember my cell phone number…..
At the rate we’re going, there won’t be much left to destroy by 2036 anyway! A sea full of floating garbage. A deforested globe, melted off icecaps, earthquakes, toxic plagues and pandemics, desertification, free-marketeers, mass starvations, Republicans…….
Jeepers, too bad it can’t get here earlier! That way we get a head start on the clean up effort!
DW
always looking on the bright side of mass cataclysms.