As I mentioned on Countdown last night, my Supreme Court class (which reviews the leading cases of the term and deliberates as an alternative Supreme Court) ruled on the constitutional challenge over the individual mandate provision (we will be considering the other issues in a separate class). The class ruled 12 to 2 to reverse the 11th Circuit and uphold the health care law. The class also voted on the ethical question of Kagan’s recusal as well as their prediction of what that other Court would do. The associate justices were not sway by the stated concerns of the Chief Justice (here and here) over the future of federalism if the Act is constitutional.
The student justices found past cases dictated an affirmance but also that health care was such a large part of the economy that this is a proper use of interstate commerce jurisdiction. They rejected the distinction between activity and non-activity that is advanced in the briefs opposing the law.
On the prediction of what those nine other pretenders would do, the vote was 11 to 3 to uphold the law.
On the question of Kagan’s recusal, the class was split. However, the majority believed that she should have recused herself by a vote of 8-6.
I expect that the release of these results will make continued coverage of the other court unnecessary. Notably, the class has maintained a very high accuracy rate on predictions. This prediction also mirrors the prediction of former Supreme Court clerks.