Submitted by Charlton Stanley (aka Otteray Scribe), Guest Blogger
Approximately 1,000 weather reporting stations all over the world have been monitoring local temperatures for decades. Temperature data have been compiled and analyzed by NASA scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.
Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since the year 2000. The tenth? From the 20th Century, that was 1998. Temperature rise is not completely steady and consistent from one year to the next. That is due to factors such as volcanic eruptions and other natural causes; however, trends are the important thing.
We can see from the short video below the flip that Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92 degrees F (0.51 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline. Weather experts warn that a consistent global average change of even a half-degree Fahrenheit can have catastrophic effects on global weather patterns. Anyone recall April and May 2011?
130 years in 27 seconds:
Is this thread about trolls? why do you wish to continue talking about trolls
“Is this thread about trolls? why do you wish to continue talking about trolls”
Joe,
Uh….maybe because you evince all of the characteristics of a troll in your writing and manner. You see a troll is merely a propagandist who attempts to disrupt, without interacting. We’ve had more than a few trolls in the past and they act and write exactly as you do, though some with more facility than you’ve shown. Look if you’re making a living doing this than who am I to judge you? However, I reserve the right to call you out by stating what you are. Troll is not a vulgarity as you foolishly attempted to use with me missing entirely the point of my whole guest blog. Troll is a descriptive used to identify a person who acts in a particular manner on the internet. You also seem bought and paid for to me.
What about the other end
Antarctic sea ice extent at the end of July was the highest on record for that day, growing to 18.077 million sq km. The previous record of 17.783 was set in 2010, whilst the 1981-2010 average was 16.869.
Ice extent has been above average all year, and, according to NSIDC, is outside the 2 Standard Deviation range now.
Sea ice area also continues to run at well above average.
Global Cooling
Joe: Troll is only a vulgar term to a troll,
Since you bring up ocean temps…
http://ens-newswire.com/2013/08/05/global-scientists-shocked-by-true-scale-of-ocean-warming/
And seeing how we are talking GLOBAL what his happening In Antarctica.
Not alot of people know this but Antarctic sea ice extent at the end of July was the highest on record for that day, growing to 18.077 million sq km. The previous record of 17.783 was set in 2010, whilst the 1981-2010 average was 16.869.
Ice extent has been above average all year, and, according to NSIDC, is outside the 2 Standard Deviation range now.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
Stop calling others names and profiling them. I was not the first to use vulgarity. I believe troll is a vulgar word and feel personally attacked when it is used to stifle discussion or against me You want respect you better give it.
All of my post where about the subject on on topic Then several started with troll postings to try and divert the thread into a name calling session. You can not have an open discussion like this. If this is how you wish to discuss subject matter it is proven to lead to closed minded thinking.
Do not think something is not possible without first looking at the possibilities.
” I believe troll is a vulgar word and feel personally attacked when it is used to stifle discussion or against me You want respect you better give it.”
‘Troll’ is a common term for a person who conducts a kind of disruptive behavior on a web site or message board.
Whether or not a person is a troll is a relevant point of discussion because it goes to good order on the board and whether the users can easily conduct the business of the web site.
I will not take a position whether you are or are not a troll. But the claim that you have been called a troll and discussion of that claim cannot be used to justify vulgar, personal attacks on others who use the board.
The claim that a person is a troll may be wrong. But there is nothing particularly disrespectful about calling a person a troll – at least not in the same sense as using various well know pejoratives.
Pointing out trolls and the techniques they uses is sometimes necessary and commendable.
Joe: Again, I did not address you, and I certainly wasn’t vulgar toward you.
vul·gar
/ˈvəlgər/
Adjective
Lacking sophistication or good taste; unrefined: “the vulgar trappings of wealth”.
Making explicit and offensive reference to sex or bodily functions; coarse and rude: “a vulgar joke”.
Synonyms
common – coarse – rude – gross – low – rough – plebeian
However, you’ve certainly proven yourself ignorant, as well as vulgar. Someone should have informed you, before now, that respect is earned, not demanded.
More moisture which could be caused by, lets see, what would put more moisture into the air over an ocean… could it be…. SATAN!, er, no. Warmer water.
The reason given for the pause in warming over the last 15 years is hypothesized by the ocean storing the heat deep below the oceans surface temperature
The warming of the oceans did put more moisture into the air and it is being returned in the form of heavy snowfall with temperatures trending cooler.
Try this exercise at the Cryosphere, not sure how cry and sphere were put together. March 1st widely accepted as first of spring, some say April. Compare April 30th 2013 to April 30 1979 the beginning of the record. Decrease 2013 by one year leaving the beginning date of April 30th 1979. If it says no image available skip that year and go to the next.
When finished do the reverse. Leave April 30th 2013 as the end date and increase April 30th 1979 by one year increments.repeat 10 times.
What do you see
Dates preset to start
Cryosphere Today Daily Sea Ice Comparison
Not only is ice increasing the snow cap is increasing. We are cooling now.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=30&fy=1979&sm=04&sd=30&sy=2013
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=30&fy=1979&sm=04&sd=30&sy=2013
Climate Change Spreads Disease Worldwide
Annie Hauser
Published: Aug 2, 2013
http://www.weather.com/health/climate-change-spreads-disease-worldwide-20130802
Excerpt:
Climate change is affecting the spread of infectious diseases worldwide — posing serious threats to not only humans, but also animals and plants, a team of international disease ecologists write in the journal Science.
Public health officials should change the way they model disease systems of all kinds to include climate variables, researchers argue. Taking climate into account could help more accurately predict and prevent the spread of deadly disease.
The changing climate is already massively affecting plants and animals, researchers write in the study. The muskox, pictured above, is one arctic animal that’s already seeing higher mortality rates because of one climate change-spread infectious disease, researchers said. Biodiversity loss has even been linked to greater risks from certain infectious diseases, such as Lyme disease and the West Nile Virus, according to researchers.
Additionally, certain human diseases, such as dengue, malaria and cholera, thrive in warmer temperatures, threatening much of the developing world. The warming globe’s impact on agricultural systems and game species pose a particular concern for the indigenous people of the Arctic, among other groups in rapidly changing areas.
The next step, researchers say, is taking action.
“We need to transcend simple arguments about which is more important — climate change or socioeconomics — and ask just how much harder will it be to control diseases as the climate warms?” coauthor Richard Ostfeld of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies said in a statement. “Will it be possible at all in developing countries?”
It’s not necessarily the severity of individual weather events that indicate shifting climate, it’s the increasing chaotic weather patterns.
The strategy that climate deniers are using is similar to one used by the christian fundamentalists that Stephen Jay Gould found so annoying. Pointing out the limited time a researcher has to produce research during the span of his/her career, it was frustrating to have to spend significant amounts of that precious time continually explaining something as obvious and apparent as evolution.
So the question before this group is, what are we gonna do about it? Continue to debate Joe Blow here, once he wakes up?
I would urge everyone to oppose the proposed XL pipeline. We’ve seen how it caused the trampling of liberties, from seizures of land to the arrest of a 67 year old woman for trying to stop the destruction trees on on her own property. I know how OS feels about mountaintop removal and I view the tar sands the same way: those actions are crimes against nature and humanity.
There’s a scandal brewing at the State Department.
http://ens-newswire.com/2013/07/11/keystone-xl-environmental-consultant-lied-about-transcanada-ties/
I’ve heard of these trolls but this is my first encounter with this sort of cyberstupidity.
My understanding is that tree rings remain useful records for assessing climate before record-keeping. They are also a good illustration of the drawbacks of proxy records – they’re hard for pinheads to get their minds around. However, by cross-checking tree ring data with ice core samples, and cross checking both with diatomic fossil records, and then comparing the whole schmear to something else like paleobotanical records, a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of these proxies can be ascertained. A great book that makes the science fairly accessible is “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars”, by Michael Mann, one the climate researchers at the forefront of the science.
As for prescribed burns, I’ve conduct prescribed burns in woodlands all the time, having done 27 in woodlands alone (I’ve more than twice that many in savanna and grasslands). Burning improves ecosystem health by removing invasives, opening up the canopy to let in more light, and returning nutrients to the soil It’s true that a certain amount of carbon is released intothe atmosphere, but it pales in comparison the amount of carbon stored underground by plants. Burning removes shallow rooted exotics and ruderals and improves conditions for prairie species to thrive. The mass of these prairie species exist underground as root structures. That’s why these areas are known as carbon-sinks.
Also, I heard about that paper about plants moving further mountainsides that came out a year or so ago. I didn’t read it but I can guarantee that the plants were shifting in response to changes in hydrology, not temperature.
OS: That wind map is really popular with birders. They use for trying to figure out what might be coming into the area.
Joe: “For Hurricanes look…yet we are in the longest stretch in recorded hurricane history to go without a major strike on the U.S. coastline, currently 7 plus years.”
A notable hurricane that hits the US is still a notable hurricane and there have been several that have hit the US coastline. If, as you and many weather forecasters were saying lately, Sandy is potentially the new norm, so what? Sandy type storms are killers and economic disasters and they are caused by more moisture being picked up as a storm tracks. More moisture which could be caused by, lets see, what would put more moisture into the air over an ocean… could it be…. SATAN!, er, no. Warmer water.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/
As for cold, your same posting says: “cold and extreme events there’s a whole new change coming and it’s already begun. When the whole theory will completely fall apart. The empirical evidence shows that as of late, last 15 years the trend for the Northern Hemi Cap is been getting colder and colder and it’s indisputable when one looks at extreme snowfall events over the last several years and the dropping temperatures on grand scales like we saw last week with over 1000 record cold temps broken here in the United States….”
So? Climate scientists have been saying for years, like over 10 years, that the first big climate (climate-long term) change in response to global warming is probably going to be an ice age. Unless the temperature escalates too fast wherein the excess solar heat can’t be moderated by weather and the excess radiated back to space, and the escalation becomes self sustaining. A new “Little Ice Age” may be the best case scenario we can look forward to.
lottakatz wrote: “Climate scientists have been saying for years, like over 10 years, that the first big climate (climate-long term) change in response to global warming is probably going to be an ice age.”
Talk about untestable hypothesis! If it gets warmer, see, we have global warming! If it gets colder, yeah, that was caused by global warming too, as predicted by the climatologists! No matter what happens, no matter what the data show, the global warming advocates were right all along.
Some climatologists say that the earth is still in the tail end of an ice age, as evidenced by the ice sheets still on Greenland and Antarctica. During the Pliocene, temperatures averaged a good 5 degrees or more than now.
It is entirely plausible that if the data is good and we are measuring real temperature averages that are rising, then it may be entirely a natural cycle that is independent of our production of CO2 gases caused through the burning of fossil fuels. In other words, global climate may be more complicated than just measuring CO2.
I love it how people can determine intelligence through the screen of a computer. Oh thats right, that’s the new norm for gathering it.
Seeing how I have been labeled a troll and you make mention of troll you did address me. At least in the roll of a supposed troll. Think before you type and chances are you won’t get bitten.
Joe: Attempt to be civilized and intelligent, and maybe you won’t be labeled a troll.
Maybe you and the queer can get together and the two of you can demonstrate Personality Change. Crank the AC up after the two of you are done cause it’s getting hot in here. And you two can be used in a study called Personality Climate Change Disorder.
Juliet when people get bored some try the art of playing with themselves. Might be time for you to try and rediscover yourself.
Try it. At this point what do you have to loose, Try anything as it appears you are desperate looking for acceptance.
Joe: I did not address you. Please keep your vulgar comments to yourself.
Will some moderator get rid of this blight, so the grownups can discuss?
” Please keep your vulgar comments to yourself”
I will second that.
It is one thing to argue a point of view, however wrongheaded that point of view might be.
It is quite another to make vulgar personal attacks.
BTW, I am not a particularly sensitive person. I like dirty jokes and wide ranging, robust discussion.
Correction
And seeing how this is a constitutional attorney’s blog, (Hard to fathom when we are talking about queers and global warming)
and Koch which I thought it’s pronounced COCK here because it appears that most of you really liked Anderson Coopers T-Bag comment only later to be learned it’s pronounced COKE which ironically is a by product of what ?
And seeing how this is a constitutional attorney’s blog, (Hard to fathom when we are talking about queers and global warming) for those who don’t believe the issue/theory/problem has not been debated for 100’s if not thousands of years,prophecy
The opposing voices in America’s first great debate about global warming was between Thomas Jefferson and Noah Webster in 1799.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history-archaeology/Americas-First-Great-Global-Warming-Debate.html#ixzz2bBajnrJT
Great Debate really and since then nothing has really changed except for the climate and the empirical evidence shows your on the wrong side of it.
I find myself bored, and more than a little annoyed, by the trolls.
All that you said Mr.Scribe is all well a good however who here has not heard over and over over for well over 200 years if not more that Global Warming, regardless of CO2 cause and effect, will make___________MORE EXTREME. When the temperature goes up, everything else goes up with it, Almost comical in a sense, like Cheech and Chong up in smoke..
When looking at the empirical data, one not need be a scientist to see that ALL weather related EXTREME EVENTS were worse years and years ago when CO2 was BELOW 350PPM vs what the world is experiencing now at 400PPM.
Name it
Lets look back at history and extreme events when CO2 was less than it is today and you show me how everything is becoming more extreme.
India and China for floods. When was the last time millions of people were drowned in a single event in recent memories because of extreme rainfall.
For Hurricanes look to the U.S. When was the last time during a ten year period, the NE U.S. dealt with a MAJOR HURRICANE. 1950 to 1960 saw 3 MAJOR Hurricane Cat3 or Higher in a ten year stretch, yet we are in the longest stretch in recorded hurricane history to go without a major strike on the U.S. coastline, currently 7 plus years. Katrina is no longer the new norm Sandy is even though Sandy was barely a hurricane we she made landfall. Barely a Cat 1. So Katrina Cat 5, Global Warming, Andrew Cat 5, Global Warming, Sandy Cat 1 ? wait for it……..Global Warming.
Wanna talk about Global Cyclone. The trend over the last 50 years for a Super Cyclone has trended down. This year ACE, Accumulative Cyclone Energy is 40% of normal thus far this year and world wide tropical cyclone activity remains between 30-40 year lows for the 4th year in a row. Hard to argue that things are getting worse when the empirical evidence SHOWS other wise. It’s gonna get worse it’s gonna get worse it’s gonna get worse works for only so long.
For drought, since the Dust Bowl how when CO2 was likely around 250-280PPM (300PPM 1960) has the United States experienced since then. The only place on the planet that experiences drought over and over and over for years and years and years is the Sahara. Turns out we here in the states want it that way. SAL (Saharan Air Layer) suppresses tropical cyclone activity. Really if we wanted to stop hurricanes at least the Cape Verde ones all you would need to do is build wind farms the blow towards the East Atlantic, crank them to high and keep the magic dust blowing every time a Tropical Wave exits the coast
Tornado’s ? again U.S.A #1 in the world for location. They’re not getting more extreme, more people and buildings are showing up in their path. One again the empirical data shows that there is no correlation to rising temperature and or CO2 and more Extreme F3-F5 Tornandos. Over the last 50 years the trend is down.
Now if you want to flip the coin to cold and extreme events there’s a whole new change coming and it’s already begun. When the whole theory will completely fall apart. The empirical evidence shows that as of late, last 15 years the trend for the Northern Hemi Cap is been getting colder and colder and it’s indisputable when one looks at extreme snowfall events over the last several years and the dropping temperatures on grand scales like we saw last week with over 1000 record cold temps broken here in the United States in the middle of summer. You didn’t hear about that. What you heard was that a Melt Pond appeared in a normal place at the normal time of year then used as propaganda that we are all going to die.
Ahhhh, science stuff. I’ll take that over snippits out of a play book any day.
I hope you continue to highlight this topic, OS. As you say this stuff is important. And I’m sure Joe appreciates the work.
What OS said, I think.
Jim, um, I mean Joe. You want science? OK you can have some science. You talk about individual years, but any real scientist will tell you a single data point or event is totally meaningless when it is longitudinal data over a mathematically significant time that is important. Multiple data points give trends. One of the problems is that the acceleration of warming all over the globe has been so rapid since the mid-1990s, the curve looks more like a hockey stick than a smooth curve. People like you and some of the other deniers say we have too short a time to tell anything from it. OK, how about going back almost a half-million years? Is that long enough for you? They were able to use tree rings up until a few years ago when the mean temperature changes were so fast tree rings were not keeping up with rapid change, and no longer were a reliable measure. By that time, tree rings no longer mattered because we now have accurate thermometers and infrared temperature measurements from satellites.
Vostok scientific observation station in Antarctica has been able to drill and retrieve ice-cores from over 4km deep. From those cores, they can take weather samples in similar fashion to tree rings. The bands on the core represent years. From this it is possible to reconstruct temperatures in the Antarctic atmosphere and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last 414,000 years! That long enough for you? As I told you in the body of the story, individual years mean little in the total scheme of things. It is longitudinal data that is important. However the exponential curve represented by the hockey stick shape of the weather change curve is something not seen in at least 414,000 years of earth’s climate. If you really want some science, there is an excellent paper from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Bath in the UK. This paper was prepared by the faculty as required reading for the course MT1007. I am sure with your reading talent you can skim through these 29 pages of truly dense science and mathematical models in a matter of just a few minutes. However, I would like for you to check their maths and be able to post your proofs to show good faith.
raff is excused from this exercise.
http://www.maths.bath.ac.uk/~sw283/SIP/climate.pdf
Argue with a scientist sport, and you might get what you ask for. In the following paper, the authors give a clear and concise explanation of the stochastic model in which closed nonlinear stochastic equations are derived for the climate variables alone on longer time scales in a rigorous fashion that reveals an accounting for strong coupling between climate variables and unresolved variables. You will find that explanation on pages 968-969. This paper was published in the peer-reviewed journal, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics, Vol. LIV, 0891–0974 (2001)
http://math.uh.edu/~ilya/papers/cpam00.pdf