There is a new report on global climate change this week that addresses many of the claims being raised against the theory by critics. Despite the overwhelming agreement of the scientific community, people continue to cite anecdotal observations of cool temperatures to refute predictions. The new report crunches the climate numbers and concludes that there is less than 1 chance in 100,000 that global average temperature over the past 60 years would have been as high without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
The research published in Climate Risk Management by Philip Kokica, Steven Crimpc, and Mark Howdend is reportedly the first to quantify the probability of historical changes in global temperatures. They directly address the arguments promulgated by climate change critics:
December 2013 was the 346th consecutive month where global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th century monthly average, with February 1985 the last time mean temperature fell below this value. Even given these and other extraordinary statistics, public acceptance of human induced climate change and confidence in the supporting science has declined since 2007. The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are part of natural systems fluctuations remains a major stumbling block to effective adaptation action and risk management. Previous approaches to attribute change include qualitative expert-assessment approaches such as used in IPCC reports and use of ‘fingerprinting’ methods based on global climate models. Here we develop an alternative approach which provides a rigorous probabilistic statistical assessment of the link between observed climate changes and human activities in a way that can inform formal climate risk assessment. We construct and validate a time series model of anomalous global temperatures to June 2010, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other causal factors including solar radiation, volcanic forcing and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. When the effect of GHGs is removed, bootstrap simulation of the model reveals that there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304 months (our analysis extends to June 2010) with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average. We also show that one would expect a far greater number of short periods of falling global temperatures (as observed since 1998) if climate change was not occurring. This approach to assessing probabilities of human influence on global temperature could be transferred to other climate variables and extremes allowing enhanced formal risk assessment of climate change.
They note that July 2014 was the 353rd consecutive month in which global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th-century monthly average. Notably, anyone born after February 1985 has not lived a single month where the global temperature was below the long-term average for that month. Their analysis put the probability of getting the same run of “warmer-than-average months without the human influence was less than 1 chance in 100,000.”
We identified periods of declining temperature by using a moving 10-year window (1950 to 1959, 1951 to 1960, 1952 to 1961, etc.) through the entire 60-year record. We identified 11 such short time periods where global temperatures declined.
Our analysis showed that in the absence of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, there would have been more than twice as many periods of short-term cooling than are found in the observed data.
It is an interesting paper that I recommend to you. I am obviously already sold on the concept of climate change and strongly disagree with those fighting efforts to control the pollution linked to the change. However, we can have a civil discourse on the subject and I believe that this is a credible report worthy of inclusion in that ongoing debate.
Oh, and the p.s. to all of this…
… We’ve already maxed out our carbon exchange for the year.
Carbon exchange, you may wonder?
… we’re living on borrowed carbon time.
Earth Overshoot Day
In less than 8 Months, Humanity exhausts Earth’s budget for the year
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/earth_overshoot_day/
Here is the complete time lapse event from ‘Chasing Ice’
Manhattan Island is thrown in at the end for… perspective.
(That was the point I cried in the movie theater)
Max-1 – you are aware that loss of glacier ice is part of the cycle? At one point a large portion of the United States was covered by a glacier. Where I live in what is now desert used to be a huge inland sea (you can collect sea shells in several of our parks). There are some scientists who think we were still in the Little Ice Age during the winters of 1942-44 as the Germans were battling the Soviets and ‘General Winter.’
Nick says,
“The education industry is corrupt. It hates the First Amendment and are whores for whomever is paying them.”
Lot’s of room for discourse there!
———————————————————————-
Karen says, to Centinal,
“I would love to see the math, and your suggestions on pollution.”
Yeah, me too. However, I doubt it’s forthcoming any time soon.
Karen babbling on:
“Just a casual review of this blog will turn up ‘deniers’ ‘low cranial capacity’ ‘race to the bottom of intellect.'”
When you quote others, you should do just that, and not add your own words inside the quotes. This is basic.
“I’m sure I can name 20 topics in which discussion was not allowed . . .”
Name the twenty topics and who didn’t allow them. Count the ways, Karen.
“. . . instead of hearing everyone out and having a public discussion on important issues.”
You’ve been heard out, now you’re being called out to justify your statements. There is a difference.
“See what I mean about a complete inability in the Liberal party to have a discussion among the many opinions in the country?”
Why do you assume I’m liberal? I’m not, I’m just disgusted with your paltry summations as a starting point for your soapbox. Your arguments have one vector, and when this is questioned you claim fault of others.
“It’s group think or nothing.”
Groupthink, in the context of your sentence, is one word.
“I just have a problem with how they handled and collected the data . . .”
I’m sure you’re an expert on that, given all the above.
@Matt Johnson
Good luck. “Hearing out” pertains to one side only. Then it’s a “good discussion”. There are people who will listen and who will converse, but others will only reply in the sort of quotes you’ve listed. Strong heart, strong stomach, sir. I wish you well!
The opening sequence is a clip from ‘Chasing Ice’.
It is the largest documented and second largest calving event, ever.
Climate Change: The Physics of Glacier Loss
CARBON
@Maxcat06
I have a comment in moderation. It must be the link I put on it.
Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
@MaxCat06
Yes, Intruders! That’s the one. I have to go to OnDemand to catch up on that. I also like TCM. You can see a lot of Film Noir stuff. I watched The Third Man, and A Portrait of Jennie the last few days. Plus, they have silent films on.
I don’t know if you like ballet or not, but even if you don’t, you might love this:
http://www.amazon.com/Dracula-Pages-Virgins-Wei-Qiang-Zhang/dp/B0001US600
I saw it on TV, and then got the DVD.
Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
Squeeky – I have watched tons of movies so if you would like some recommendations????
@Squeeky
By all means, catch up on “Intruders”. I’ve watched the first two, and they’re really good. I love TCM, probably watch at least a movie a day. Never have seen that Dracula, but it looks interesting…
David Hastings: What I didn’t say to Gov. Scott about climate change
http://tbo.com/list/news-opinion-commentary/david-hastings-what-i-didnt-say-to-gov-scott-about-climate-change-20140831/
From 2010
“Canary is Dead” – Coral Reefs & Global Warming
@Maxcat06
I like that channel, too. Dr. Who, Copper, Orphan Black, Atlantis, and there is a new show I have to catch up on. They don’t just bombard you with commercials. Have you seen the new Sherlock Holmes series on PBS???
Squeeky Fromm
Girl reporter
@Squeeky
Yes, I have. Right now, I’m watching “Intruders”. Jury’s out on it so far…
@Annie
Me, too. I usually have one of my guitars out, and a music book or two. Plus, the cats are crawling all over me, and the TV is on. Plus, a regular book or two. Sometimes I am even typing up pleadings and things for my BFF Fabia Sheen, Esq,, an attorney, or helping my mom in her business.
Squeeky Fromm
Girl reporter
@Maxcat
That sounds like a good idea. There is a lot you can do with a uke! Here is one of my favorite videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjAMD2NyK38
This reminds me I wanted to order a kazoo, too.
Squeeky Fromm
Girl Reporter
@Squeeky
Great video. Now I’m hoping I can get one! Right now, I’m watching something strange I DVRed from BBC America.
pt. 2 continued…
Annie
Greed is good… is the motto.
CO2… Too much of a good thing can kill. Period. Fact.
pt. 2
Max, seems like conservatives are concerned about leaving huge a Federal deficit for our grandchildren, but why worry about that if there won’t be much of an earth to live on for our children’s children?
Annie,
Yes, we are screwed…
… The question should be: Are we willing to screw our childrens children their environment for immediate gratification of POWER NOW! ?
This is for the Michael Mann haters…
The Importance of Michael Mann’s Lawsuit Against the National Review
http://thedakepage.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-importance-of-michael-manns-lawsuit.html?spref=tw
Max-1 – Mann and UVA succeeded in hiding his emails from being used in the case, but the case is long from over.
Squeeky, I’m constantly multitasking. Who could just sit at the computer ot iPad that long without doing at least one or two other things simultaneously?
Thanks Max. So there at FOUR new man made gases with accumulating effect of depleting the ozone layer. Not good news.