Below is my column in USA Today on crunching the numbers of the prosecution of former President Donald Trump. The most important may be the number one. In this case (as Three Dog Night warned), one “is the saddest experience you’ll ever know.”
Here is the column:
The arraignment of Donald Trump is a historic moment as a former president stands in the dock to plead not guilty to a federal crime. It may foreshadow an equally historic trial in the Florida courthouse.
A few key numbers could ultimately determine whether the case is history in the making or much ado about nothing. Those numbers are 90, 70, 12 and 1.
90: Prosecutors are on the clock
Now that the Justice Department is on the docket, the countdown begins. There is a reason why special counsel Jack Smith dedicated one of his few public lines after the indictment to declare that the Justice Department is intent on pursuing “a speedy trial.” Smith’s greatest problem is not Trump, but time.
The Justice Department has long followed a rule that it should not take actions that could influence elections. While there are ambiguities around the meaning of this policy, many legal observers read this rule as kicking in 90 days before an election.
The first primary elections are scheduled for the first week of next February. That places the redline for prosecutors in the first week of November.
Since the Justice Department has generally followed this rule, a departure for Trump would reinforce the view of almost half of Americans that the charges are politically motivated.
However, a failure to try the case before November could mean pushing the trial until after the election.
Republican contenders are already suggesting that they may pardon Trump if elected, and Trump might even be able to issue himself a pardon if he is the winner. It could mean that Smith might never see a jury seated in this case, let alone a guilty verdict.
70: Trump trial could start as early as August
That is why Smith is invoking the constitutional right to a speedy trial − a right that protects the defendant, not the prosecutors. A speedy trial under the Sixth Amendment − and a federal statute − would set the case for trial within 70 days. That would put the trial before the end of August.
However, criminal defendants routinely waive the right to a speedy trial because it does not allow them to fully prepare for trial. The Trump team would be legally insane not to waive.
After a waiver, the Trump team can then delay matters further by filing a series of challenges on threshold issues − ranging from the use of the Espionage Act to relying on the compelled testimony of Trump’s former counsel. After a period of briefing before the trial court, appellate courts could delay the matter for months depending on whether they expedite review.
12: Selecting an impartial jury will be a daunting task
This case will require a particularly demanding jury selection process to find 12 jurors (plus alternates). Jurors are no longer expected to have no knowledge of a controversial case. Indeed, I do not think we would want a juror who has lived in such seclusion as to have avoided any knowledge of Trump, Mar-a-Lago or this fight over documents.
However, few people seem undecided on these charges. Indeed, this might be the most talked about and least read indictment in history. People seem content that the case confirmed either a pattern of Trump consistently flouting the law or the Justice Department unrelentingly targeting Trump. Identifying such bias will be a challenge for the court and counsel.
1: Neither the Defense nor the Prosecution Can Lose One
The last number is probably the most important for both sides.
For Trump, his team must run the table on all of the 37 counts. As a man who will turn 77 years old on Wednesday, Trump cannot allow for a single count to survive because the charges come with a potential of 10-12 years in prison. It would ordinarily be unlikely for a first offender in such cases to receive prison time, but this is no ordinary case.
Even half of the time served on one of these counts could be a terminal sentence for a man of Trump’s age. I am the founder of the Project for Older Prisoners, and I can attest to how prison ages people, particularly those with no prior experience with incarceration.
There are cases going both ways on sentencing. Egregious cases such as the one involving President Bill Clinton’s former national security adviser, Sandy Berger, resulted in a light plea. Berger, who stuffed classified documents in his clothes to remove them from a secure facility, was allowed to plead to a misdemeanor, received two years’ probation and was given only a three-year suspension – not a permanent revocation – of his security clearance.
Yet, Asia Janay Lavarello, a former civilian employee of the Defense Department, was recently sentenced to three months in prison. That was on on one count of mishandling such material, and Laverello pleaded guilty.
The number 1 also is looming for Jack Smith. Just as Donald Trump cannot lose a single count, Smith cannot lose a single juror without facing a hung jury.
That’s the Trump prosecution by the numbers, and they add up to far more uncertainty than either side seems willing to acknowledge.
Jonathan Turley, a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors, is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. Follow him on Twitter @JonathanTurley
AUSA Jack Smith’s scorecard:
USA v. John “Whose Baby is It Anyhow?” Edwards Loss
USA v. Bob “Hey my wife gave me the Rolex. What of it?” McDonnel Evetual Loss
USA v. President “So Starting No Wars in Office is a Bad Thing Now” Trump ?
I’m hoping for Smith-like perfection
AUSA Jack Smith disbarred and convicted would be good headlines.
Dear Prof Turley,
Two can be as bad as one .. . it’s the loneliest number since the number 1.
1. All my favorite whistleblowers are charged under the 1917 Espionage Act. The all risked their lives and liberty to disclose heinous high crimes and misdemeanors – including false justifications for war – all classified at the highest levels allowed by U.S. law.
2. President Trump is not one them .. . but the Biden DoJ has, somehow, managed to put him in very good company.
Advantage Trump.
“They are one person
They are two alone
They are three together
They are four each other”
*CSNY
Can I be on the jury? I can tie a hangsman knot.
A Trump opponent volunteers to help kill him. Wow. I wonder if the secret service can track down the computer from which your comment originated.
Two commenters on this forum have made their exact locations known, their place of employment, neighborhood residence, their family ties, and their life history. Mespo has made his name known. I have not but finding me would not be difficult
Secret Service, FBI, DOJ: if you plan on raiding my house, make sure to not use the front porch. It is currently being rebuilt, and you would fall through to the bottom floor …but you already know that.
🖕🏾
Even liking such a comment might prompt a knock at the door from the secret service.
Interesting read but one slight correction. The idiom is actually “crunching the numbers” not “crushing”.
You sure got “snap, crackle, and pop”, daddy-o:
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/crush+it
How to Kneecap Your Political Opposition 101:
Concoct a pretext. A civil case works. (We’ll morph it, later.) Send a bunch of armed agents to enforce your civil claim. Now for the morphing: Allege that the target obstructed the civil process. Scatter “evidence” everywhere. Take lots of pictures and leak them to WaPo. Remind the public that you had to use armed agents. And voila — you now have civil-cum-criminal. File your charges. Remind the public that “nobody is above the law.”
For good measure, scare the bejesus out of people (and give the MSM an excuse to use the word “bombshell”) by using scary words like “espionage.”
(Don’t worry about getting caught. If you do, it’ll be years later. Your desire will already have been satisfied. Nobody will care. And you’ll have a cushy job as a talking head.)
I like the timetable laid out by the professor. A good scorecard to remember and use just like being at a baseball game. Now we have to look for runs, hits, errors, occasional dropped balls and passed balls, wild pitches, and balks. Never forget the balks. I trust the professor should be the scorekeeper and make the calls. The most important thing, of course, is the Jury, and as mentioned by the professor and others, it will only take one no vote. May not have to be 37 times. One would expect that some charges make get dropped in the course of the pre-trial or early in the trial.
This will not be in the friendly confines of D.C. or New York where even walking to the right of a line will get you convicted of something. Or if you try to defend your life. O.J. had his Los Angeles jury and now Trump will have his Miami Jury. We should all start looking for the best odds now on where to place our money.
Oh, and never forget Discovery. When they really start turning over the rocks to see what lies beneath. I would expect a lot of demands of e-mails and correspondence and meeting summaries, between National Archives, DOJ, FBI, White House, and probably some other agencies not named yet. Might be some evidence of thumbs on the scales of justice.
“Those documents were not in a safe place.”
I assume by “those” the commenter means the ones left for years in a closet, garage, Chinatown (?!).
I propose a Test of National Security, Winner takes home a Million Dollars Cash prize.
Contestants – Starting from outside on the Street:
Contestant 1. Must walk into the Kitchen of Trumps Mar-a-Lago and make a Peanut Butter Sandwich then turn around and walk out with the Sandwich to the street and eat it.
Contestant 2. Must walk into the Kitchen of Biden’s Beach House and make a Peanut Butter Sandwich then turn around and walk out with the Sandwich to the street and eat it.
Bet: Which Contestant will eat his Lunch.
DraftKings will hold the Odds Line online. Place your Bets
If Trump were innocent of these charges he would want this case tried as soon as possible to clear his name.
He is not so he won’t.
“If Trump were . . .”
Someone doesn’t understand basic logical fallacies.
Would top defense attorneys agree that innocent defendants should go to trial “as soon as possible”? Are there factors that innocent defendants should consider? What are they? Are there instances where innocent defendants are smart to ask for delays? What are they? I know nothing about this, but these might be a few things to find out before opining.
Gust: “If Trump were innocent of these charges he would want this case tried as soon as possible to clear his name.”
+++
He’s wrestling with the Devil. He will take the time he needs to choose his moves carefully. Time does not favor the prosecution in cases like this. The case is at its strongest when first presented and then it begins to dissolve and unravel by degrees.
@Guest
Guilty until proven innocent? Nice analysis, comrade. Alas that is not how our legal system is supposed to work. It’s also a misrepresentation of logic. Would say the same if it were Biden in the hotseat.
“that is not how ____________ is supposed to work.”
Said far too frequently as of late.
I don’t like these games. Gamification of everything means there are someones gaming the systems.
Dishonesty and subterfuge are destroyers of worlds.
Or he may want the time to assemble a team, hire investigators, and aggressively pursue discovery.
This is not a parking offense and NOTHING is guaranteed in court.
I know he is scraping the bottom of the barrel with attorneys but hopefully he won’t get one that gives him advice as ridiculous as yours.
I think Trump wants these cases to go on and on. All Trump, all the time.
Bob: he LOVES it–he wallows in the attention. Did you see him yesterday, after the arraignment–reveling in the attention, adulation and worship of his fans? It’s sickening. People in other countries must think we’re nuts to allow someone who stole our most-sensitive secrets to run loose, parade around like a celebrity, lie about he facts and the law and attack the DOJ and our sitting president.
President Trump is forced to bring new lawyers up to speed, since the SC dirty upped two of Trumps by making them part of the case.
Whatever happened to Jenna Ellis? He should get her up to speed, like a hot librarian.
So, what are we, citizens of the USA, going to do about this? Leaving comments in the comment section, I’m afraid, will not suffice.
“Leaving comments in the comment section, I’m afraid, will not suffice.”
You’d be surprised by how many people take *action* based on those comments.
@mike
You’d perhaps be amazed at how many read the comments as lurkers. It may not directly change anything, but it can be a part of the process. It’s why trolls comment bomb here everyday and why it’s important to refute trolls with facts. It all gets indexed by Google etc., too.
@James
Well said and true.
RE: “It all gets indexed by Google etc., too…” Much as with the NYT, all the new that fits, they print. Back in the day, the NYT buried ‘the facts’ of the Third Reich’s ‘final solution to the Jewish question’, so deep in their paper one that needed a journalistic back hoe to dig it out, Why? To do otherwise would have had their Berlin office closed, and their biased reporter sent packing. Fidel Castro, on the other hand got front page support all the way to the bank. ‘Dragnet’s’ Joe Friday could never have gotten ‘the facts’ from that lot. Neither will the users of that search engine.
Used to be that if you Googled for Lincoln’s political party the top answer would be National Union Party. Guess they didn’t want to admit that he was a Republican. Just checked and they finally fixed that. But don’t trust Google results without question.
Justice is supposed to be blind….I agree.
The definition of “Blind” is an ever shifting thing when it comes to who gets prosecuted and never based upon the crime but rather who committed it.
We have seen that prosecutions of crime can be based on a hoax concocted by one Nominee in a political campaign and the target of the hoax is prosecuted to the point of it becoming a persecution…..and no one perpetrating the fraud are made the target of an investigation that resulted in a criminal investigation of their misconduct. Justice, done by the DOJ was certifiably blind that time. Blind to the real crime while pursuing an innocent group of people some of whom were entrapped by the DOJ.
Let’s cut to to the chase here….if you are a Biden, Clinton, Obama, Lynch, Holder, Garland, Comey, Wray, Clapper, Brennan, and a host of others….you are bullet proof and far more blessed than any and every Republican or non-member of the Democrat Cabal that is dead set upon obtaining and holding total power over every American. Gavin Newsome showed us how it works….during the Covid Lockdowns HE ordered In California….he dined out at a lavish Restaurant. Just as in the USSR Days when there were stores just for Communist Party Members where anything you wanted was available and not available in stores for the masses.
There is nothing equal about socialism….only the powerful benefit.
We see that paraded daily with the DOJ…..no matter the crimes it commits….the malevolent actors who are subverting the Rule of Law and perpetrating tyranny prosper rather than be held accountable.
Perhaps we as stated in my State Constitution a look to the Past should remind us of how wrong these people are and their conduct so heinous not only should be condemned but must be.
The Federal Government is in our Lives to a degree the Founding Father would have rejected out of hand.
When does this perversion of our Laws reach a point that demands the most serous form of rebuttal?
From the Declaration of Independence…..are we approaching such a situation today?
“”We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.—That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,—That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”
Is this where we are headed?
This is not about one Man….it is about everyone of us….every American..
*Like* times infinity.
Is this where we are headed?
Very good comment Ralph. The answer to that question is; we are already there. We’ve been there for quite some time. The list of grievances have multiplied in recent years and this one could very likely be the one that energizes a large enough majority to alter or abolish this heinous form of government.
FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate’s stunningly arrogant refusal to answer even the most basic of questions about the FD-1023 report regarding the $5 million-dollar Ukranian Burisma bribe during yesterday’s Senate Judiciary hearing tells you just how far the FBI will go to protect the Bidens. Fabricate a criminal case over a dispute regarding records maintained under the Presidential Records Act ? No problem.! Let’s raid the President’s home !! Let’s force his lawyers to testify against him ! They truly believe they are above any and all oversight. We’re no better than Venezuela now. Unfortunately, it’s too late to save the FBI. Transfer all of them to the U.S. Border Patrol on the Southern Border so they can do some REAL federal law enforcement. They could use the help……
The DOJ and FBI are protecting Biden. The House needs to launch a full investigation into the allegation that Biden accepted a $5m bribe. To maximise investigative power, the Judiciary Committee should be empowered to commence an impeachment investigation. I don’t know why the Republicans aren’t doing this. There is much more here than Trump’s call with Zelensky that the Democrats used to launch their impeachment process.
I think the Speaker is waiting for more evidence before launching an impeachment investigation. I know I would if I were him. And there is timing to consider. An impeachment trial before the Senate would be unlikely to get 67 votes against Biden, regardless of the evidence. But it could help RFK Jr. give him a better run in the primaries.
It may foreshadow an equally historic trial in the Florida courthouse.
In a Federal Courthouse in Downtown Miami, a stone’s throw away from Little Havana, where Cubans that bleed red, white and blue in good ol’ fashioned American patriotism, live, regularly gather on the streets and cafes, chew cigars, spit at Communists in their faces, and have consistently voted Republican (for both Trump and DeSantis) for so long that the Democrats have literally walked away from Florida. The Florida Democrat Party is a fiasco, per the Miami Herald. What could possibly go wrong with trying this case in Miami?
If anything, trying the case in Miami may solidify the opinion of Floridians that Biden’s DOJ is DOA. The spectacle of Cubans rallying and waving American flags outside the US Courthouse will be spectacular. The optics will be glorious.
One wonders if Jack Smith will appear anywhere near those
crazypatriotic Cubans in Miami.Despite the fact that a Trump supporting group is in a blue/purple (?) area of Florida one hour+ away, that group is the strongest group in the nation supporting Trump and will be continuously sending members to protest the government’s abusiveness.
All the yada yada comes down to Nov 5, 2024. The extent of the down ballot vote against the Democrat ticket in each state will speak to whether or not the electorate has had enough of the current administration’s advocacy of sociopolitical and economic progressivism, judicial moral and ethical depravity, and the evidence of the corruption of its First Family. If the citizenry makes it clear that they have had enough and are not going to take it anymore, we will be on the road to not only getting our country back, but drinking real beer, once again.
“… whether or not the electorate has had enough…: Unfortunately, half the country will keep their heads down hoping not to jeopardize their government stipends and benefits.
ZZDoc: I have felt for many moons that the electorate in America as a whole isn’t worthy of self-governance. Too out of touch…and not too bright. After the 2022 mid-term debacle for conservatives, I do not have a super lofty feeling of electoral euphoria building in my veins. High hopes and low expectations.
” that the electorate in America as a whole isn’t worthy of self-governance”
They are but they have been debased and corrupted by agenda-driven leaders who have destroyed their character and education. Soft tyranny of the sort D’Toqueville feared would arise. Good leaders would preserve and promote those things that instill those things necessary for self-governance. Instead, we got agendas, propaganda, and the emphasis on convenience, ease, and safety.
Alchemists didn’t get their gold but they found they could turn men into sheep.
Despicable.
Randy, self-governance was considered an experiment for a reason. As a nation, we appear to be failing, But fortunately, the framers designed the experiment in a way that failure would be diffused by a republican form of government. So not only do we have a majority of states, like Florida and South Dakota, demonstrating an electorate worthy of self-governance, we also have counties and municipalities worthy in states like California and New York, that in total are not. Another indication that the experiment is working is the mass migration from failing states to those that are working. So maybe our beacon of hope appears to be dimming to the rest of the world, but it is still shining brightly across our country.
The FBI and the Justice department, spied on Trump, then created a phony Russian collusion scandal and is now continuing the disgusting shit show in a major abuse of power.
I get struck every blessed time I’m called to sit for days in a jury pool. I wish they had a “three-strikes-and-your-out” for jury service. There’s apparently no regard for diversity of thought in jury selection. Both sides want sponges they can shape at will and who can absorb any cock-and-bull.
Tom Fitton of Judicial watch talked about when the FBI show up on his doorstep. He said It isn’t the punishment…it is the PROCESS!
Is Trump up to 100 FRAUDLENT prosecution yet, by NY, FED, GA, AZ, etc? What other President Income Tax Return was TAKEN from the IRS? What other president was WIRED TAPED against?
The Russian Hoax where his opponent(Hillary, Obama, Democrats) used a Foreign Spy and a Russian to create a Conspiracy where the elected President was then SPIED ON BY HIS OWN Government? People WERE JAILED for the Russian Hoax Conspiracy…lives Destroyed, 100’s of laws BROKEN, etc? Anyone go to jail? McCabe, Strzok, Paige a few of the ACTORS were REWARDED with Millions for THEIR CRIMES?
go watch Tucker Carlson tweet 3
The USA is now a Fascist State
H.G. Wells “Outline of History”
Documents Machiavellians’ centralized power destroying their empires!
“At every court there were groups of ministers and secretaries who played a Machiavellian game against their foreign rivals. Foreign policy is the natural employment of courts”
Professor Turley says neither side is willing to read the indictment. True. As long as Hillary Clinton was allowed to destroy cell phones with a hammer, destroy at least one server, then no documents charge against Trump can be taken seriously. I don’t care if they caught him red handed saying “Ha ha ha, I didn’t actually declassify these documents, take that, Deep State, ha ha ha!” The point is, was Trump intending to do something nefarious with the documents? No. Were they in a safe place? Yes. This is a nothingburger that leftists need to make into a somethingburger to preserve the illusion of intellectual and moral highground. Until the FBI raids both Clintons, Obama and Bush at dawn, this case will stand as Soviet style political targeting. And everybody knows it.
Hillary! Drink!
Absolutely. The raid on Mar-a-Lago wasn’t to retrieve documents, it was to manufacture a crime.
A very stupid individual said: “Those documents were not in a safe place.”
He knows nothing. MAL has security and portions of MAL are not open to the public. Feinstein had a Chinese spy for a driver, while Swalwell slept with a Chinese spy who was permitted to leave the country. This shows why this poster was banned from the blog.
https://rumble.com/v2u0ri2-jake-tapper-has-meltdown-watching-footage-of-president-trump-at-miami-cafe.html
𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐬 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐈𝐟 𝐇𝐞 𝐈𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐟 𝐂𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬
Former President Donald Trump revealed whether he will drop out of the 2024 race if he is convicted in connection to a Department of Justice case over whether he mishandled classified documents.
By Tyler Durden – Jun 13, 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-reveals-his-2024-plans-if-he-convicted-crimes
They say that no one is above the law, but that is patently untrue. The President is by Constitutional definition above any law having to do with classification of documents. The Espionage Act does not apply to Presidents and to the extent it does it would be unconstitutional. The whole case is built around the proposition that some unelected bureaucrat can tell a President what documents the government can keep secret — even over the President’s desire to make the document public. If you are looking for the definition of deep state, there it is. And to compel attorney testimony under the crime fraud exception when no crime is possible?…. Only a DC judge in a case involving Trump.