Columns, Politics

Biden 2.0: Can the President Avoid the “Second-Term Curse”?

Below is my column in The Hill on a second Biden Administration and what it might entail in policy priorities. With one year before the next presidential election, the Hill asked me to project what such a second term might look like for President Joe Biden.

Here is the column:

Popular culture has curses that range from the charming (the Billy Goat Curse) to the chilling (King Tut). No curse, however, has more objective validity than the “second-term curse” of American presidents.

Only 21 presidents have stuck around for a second round. For those, the additional four years have proven the downfall of many a good president. While some have actually died in successive terms (Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Lincoln, McKinley), others have politically died from debilitating scandals, from Grant to Nixon to Clinton.

Some second-term presidents become far too comfortable in their second terms, allowing others to dictate decisions. For others, it is not laziness but legacy that gets them into trouble. Some feel a certain liberty and license that comes with being a lame duck president — pursuing a legacy with reckless abandon.

A second term for Joe Biden could easily repeat these common failings, particularly if the U.S. House remains in Republican hands. During the election, Biden pledged to follow a strategy that served him well over decades of politics: to pursue a moderate government that unites a divided country. He then immediately abandoned that strategy and moved sharply to the left. The general view was that Biden handed over much of governing to far-left aides, who proceeded to populate his administration with similar far-left appointees.

The decision to lead from the left will likely make this election more challenging for Biden, who could well join the other 10 presidents who lost bids for a second term. To succeed, he will have to defend those policies in this election.

It is less likely that Biden will break from his Cabinet and staff in a second term. To the contrary, second terms tend to be more ideologically aggressive, since they free presidents from the need to face voters again. Second terms are when presidents are most likely to yield to temptation.

Second-term presidents tend to have little patience for negotiations as they watch their final years in politics ticking away. If one or both houses of Congress remain under Republican control, Biden is likely to dramatically increase his controversial use of unilateral action in areas like the environment and immigration. He has already lost a number of major legal cases finding that he exceeded his constitutional authority. That is not likely to deter a second-term Biden.

On specific issues, Biden is likely to become more extreme. For example, Biden has already been criticized by industry for fulfilling his pledge to hamper domestic fossil fuel production and prioritize green technologies in the name of climate change. Even as hostile countries like Iran, Russia and Venezuela have raked in billions from oil sales, Biden has pushed for greater production by such countries rather than production in the U.S. Despite activists’ superficial complaints, he showed a remarkable level of commitment to this issue in his first term, and is likely to become more aggressive in a second term.

Specifically, climate czar John Kerry is likely to be given the ultimate “green light” in pursuing new international agreements, as the administration tries to bolster flagging sales of electric vehicles by putting pressure on increasingly jittery auto companies.

Biden has often called for gun bans and other measures to combat gun violence in the U.S. His claims have often been historically or technically challenged. The range of movement for Congress and the president is limited by the Second Amendment and the individual right to bear arms.

However, Biden has made gun control a major part of his legacy. He is expected to pursue new legislation in Congress or, if the Democrats do not control the legislative branch, unilateral action through federal agencies. We saw the latter type of measures recently when the administration imposed a moratorium on gun exports to much of the world, pending further review about where such guns would be used.

Biden has faced withering criticism over his immediate moves after taking office to dismantle Trump measures along the border and to stop any additional building of segments of the wall, despite the rusting border material left at the border. Rather than build the wall, the administration sold the wall material for scrap, at a fraction of its value. As with the fossil fuel policies, the commitment has been impressive, given the public backlash with an election looming.

It is not clear whether a second term will make Biden more or less likely to crack down on the southern border. The good money says that he will be more likely to yield to his party’s far-left in pursuing paths to employment, citizenship and other measures for undocumented persons.

Across the country, Democrats are running on abortion rights. Biden has rallied his supporters to the pro-choice cause. With a sizable number of Democratic members making this a priority, it is likely that Biden will double down on unilateral actions to target states that have passed limits on abortion, while continuing an equally aggressive effort in the courts to reverse or curtail current precedent.

The other issue that concerns me most, as someone associated with the free speech community, is the impact that a second Biden term would have on the First Amendment. Biden in his first term has proven the most hostile president toward free speech since John Adams. His administration has maintained a massive system committed to the monitoring and censorship of social media.

This elaborate system recently led to a court finding an unprecedented, “Orwellian” attack on free speech. Free of the pressure of a new election, Biden is likely to double down on such efforts to limit what his administration views as “disinformation, malinformation, and misinformation” in areas ranging from climate change to election fraud to transgender policy.

For a second-term president, what is past is prelude. Biden is likely to move even more boldly to the left, where he has laid the foundation for his presidency. In his first term, Biden had every reason to fulfill his pledge to lead from the center, yet chose not to do so despite dismal popularity levels.

A shift now to the center would muddle his legacy and make him appear opportunistic in his prior appeal to the far-left. The odds favor more of the same, as Biden seeks to seal a legacy as the greenest, most anti-gun and most pro-abortion-rights president in history.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University.

182 thoughts on “Biden 2.0: Can the President Avoid the “Second-Term Curse”?”

  1. Yesterday’s election in Virginia made clear there truly is a deep state full of numskull democrats who are employed by the Federal government. They vote blindly for the party of more government, debt and control of the masses. They see no risk in an ever-expanding government and its costs. They enjoy a guaranteed income regardless of what the economy does. They and all their cohorts throughout the United States will be the demise of this great country, government employees voting for democrats’ who will award them the largess of the taxpayers.

    The question is at what point will the United States economy fail to meet its financial obligations and start eating its own to survive. The continuing expansion of the national debt is the greatest risk we face today, not some nebulous idea of climate change, terrorists or another unknown yet to descend and become headlines for the day. Reckoning will be harsh once there is not enough to go around, and those at the trough of government are bound to suffer greatly.

    1. I wonder how you will spin this comment a few years from now when it becomes obvious that you are a failure at predictions?

      1. Your handlers need to hire trolls who hold STEM degrees. Their current crop of Gender-BIPOC-LGBTQEIEIO are ROFLMAO

      2. Randy: Allow me to pose a question? ‘Who do you think would survive a funding debacle: social security or over staffed government employees?’ There are so many departments within all levels of government agencies that would be subject to the same dilemma, social services or their continued employment if budgets need to be reduced to meet debt obligations. The United States and all its municipalities have budgets and projections that could well be described to be ‘Like a Drunken Sailor’ on shore leave, with not a care in the world, living for the day. Eventually there’s not enough taxable support to service the debt and books must be reconciled.

    2. George W,
      Oh, I do not think they are voting blindly.
      They are voting for their own job security.
      That is one reason why I find it so much fun to watch them squeal when the government shuts down.

      I never thought I would see it in my life time but the day the US economy fails to meet it financial obligations is coming soon. It was only with the failed Biden foreign policy, outlandish spending and starting another forever war, albeit proxy, that has lead to de-dollarization, the expansion of the BRICS, and the pivot away from the US/West unipolar world to a multi-polar world where the US/West are left behind.

      1. Upstate
        Proverbs 21:20 my interpretation: it’s inanity to waste money or be cheated. Or said another way ‘a fool and his money are soon parted’.
        Or from “The Man That Got Away” tune from a Judy Garland movie “A Star is Born”;
        In part;

        ‘The tax man’s coming
        He’s whistling and humming
        In fear you shiver
        He’ll send you up the river
        It always happens
        When the taxman comes along.

        No more that savior faire…”

        If the out-of-control spending by government is not wrangled, we will eventually fail to be a functioning republic society.

  3. ‘Some second-term presidents become far too comfortable in their second terms, allowing others to dictate decisions.’

    *Second* term? 😂 I just can’t anymore. And election results, one would hope, would snap people out of it to realize younger voters have been fairly successfully brainwashed to think anything that isn’t blue is pure evil, that they are absolutely voting blindly, and that the days of sitting elections out over stupid personal bugaboos are over unless we want permanent one party rule.

    Newsome is openly creating social engineering with kids after his visit to China with his Cradle to ‘Grave’ program – this IS happening, and this is likely our last chance to right things. All non-dems need to get their heads out of their behinds, like, right now.

    1. Should Biden actually manage a 2nd term and should Republicans retain the house, THEN Biden will be impeached. As likely will many members of his administration.

      While I disagree tactically with the decision to start an impeachment inquiry into Biden right now, that is purely because the tactically better Target is Garland.

      Weis testified before the house yesterday and he stonewalled and with near certainty he lied. I am not sure if he was testifying before the impeachment committee, Regardless, the “ongoing investigation” tripe does not work with respect to impeachment inquiries.

      There are LOTS questions that the house is asking that the administration MUST answer – and MUST do so honestly.

  4. If the Democratic Communist party maintains control of the Executive branch without the risk of anyone in the regime being removed from office through impeachment, then this experiment will effectively be finished by 2026.

    1. @Olly

      No doubt. And I love the supposition that Biden was duly elected the first time. 🙄🙄

      1. James, does it really matter at this point whether he was duly elected or not? What matters is whether the Regime will install another potted plant to continue their goose-step march towards totalitarianism.

        At this point we effectively have a Regime running the entire Executive branch like a criminal syndicate. Their soldiers are the Democratic party. Their allegiance is not to the country or the constitution. Just like any criminal syndicate, they will try to appear legitimate from the outside, but their actions tell us who they really are. Republicans think they can use the constitution against them. They think that if they expose who they really are that the American people will vote them out. The Regime will never allow that. 2016 was the last time they would risk how the next figurehead would be installed. This is Obama’s “fundamental transformation.” It’s actually quite brilliant. The old school mafia had to hide their operations from the government. But when that crime syndicate is the government, they don’t have to hide from anyone.

  5. My fever dream is that neither Biden nor Trump have a second term. Both are completely unqualified to be POTUS.

        1. So you believe the Progressive propaganda. Congratulations sucker. YOU deserve Joe Biden.

  6. Interesting article from the good Professor. I do agree that Biden moves even further left than he is now because he has nothing to lose. However, the Professor also pointed out how much Biden has lost in court already and that trend probably will not change.

    I suspect if he wins re-election, he has both a very limited presidency and is wrapped around the axle dealing with Impeachment inquiries if the Republicans hold the House. I also see his own party moving away as time moves forward. Second terms tend to not be good and rats flee ships. I do not see a successful second term if he even wins.

    The President can use the bully pulpit all he wants, but I am not so sure anyone is listening. He can certainly try and move the needle, but I see it not much more than hot air.

  7. Shifting the economy further towards being green, being concerned about the unique gun violence problems faced by the U.S., and being pro women’s Healthcare are hugely sane responses to the challenges that face the country right now. Onward to a further consequential new term for Biden.

    2. The gun violence is your black ghetto gang banger brown plantation city scraps you demoncrat morons never fix – KILL ZONE IN SOUTH CHICAGO EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK as an example you depraved non fixer.

  8. Biden’s on-the-job performance has been so bad, Democrats instinctively know that they MUST cheat to win in 2024. Millions of unverified mail-in ballots should do the trick right ?

  9. The interest alone on the national debt is now costing Americans $1 trillion a year. That’s $3,000 for every man, woman, and child. So a family of four, making $60,000 per year, pays $12,000 of that, or 20% of total income, in interest alone on the national debt. No goods, services, or entitlements are bought with that money. It’s poof! – gone, to the lenders.

    Under these conditions, on what basis should we not conclude that the dollar is in a death spiral that cannot be stopped regardless of who is president? Study what happened to Germany in 1923 and you can see where we’re headed . . . and it’s not pretty.

    https://www.amazon.com/When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinflation/dp/1586489941

  10. Anyway Biden is not even a legitimate president. The election was rigged. I’m not saying he wouldn’t have won in a fair election – he might have. But we don’t know one way or another. That makes him illegitimate.

    1. He was elected by the EC, just like every other President, and every state ran audits of their votes. He was elected legitimately.

  11. Well crafted and thoughtful post by the professor. I have studied the 2nd term curse also and it has been laid out here quite well here. I think another 4 years of Biden would end up with the country coming apart at the seams. His people and he are attacking the basic fundamentals of American functioning both in government , rights, economics and will leave us with a fundamentally crippled economy and massive debt. That has, in the past, resulted in a massive amount of civil and military disturbances if not civil war. A example of this was Sukarno in Indonesia. A nationalist who led his country’s fight for independence and the ended up assuming the presidency after WW2 and the installed an autocratic presidency in 1959 to end the “chaotic democratic governments and legislature”. This went far left and resulted in a coup and installation of a right wing government that eliminated the left and communists in a very bloody fashion causing about 1 million lives. This occurred in 1967. Sukarno died under house arrest in 1970. Wikipedia has a OK history of that time but as usual they will say that are coups in the 3rd world were pushed by the west and CIA. Wikipedia failes to ever mention that coups were a staple of the 3rd world and much of Europe for generations before and after WW2. When there was no CIA and the US had a minimal imprint on the world in foreign policy. I think you are more likely see something like that occur than an outright civil war in the US.
    The best thing we could have have right now is a severe recession that drives Joe “the Big Guy” Biden out of office. It’s almost sacrilege to me to want a recession but if it eliminates Biden then we might have to endure it.

    2. GEB,
      Well said.
      I would disagree with you about the another 4 years of Biden would end up with the country coming apart at the seams part though.
      It already has been coming apart at the seams since day one of his presidency.
      I question if it was intentional, part of some agenda or just gross incompetence as this admin seems to pin ball from one disaster to another.
      Of course our leftist friends will scream it was all Trumps fault. But they will deny the reality of the Trump economy, no new wars, the Abraham accords. Sure, he called out NATO countries for not holding up their part of spending on arms, rightfully so. He called out Germany on their dependence on Russian energy and turned out right. He used tariffs against China to support domestic American businesses. Biden’s sanctions against China’s chip manufacturing was bigger than any of Trump’s tariffs.
      The majority of American’s believe America is heading in the wrong direction under the Biden admin.
      The majority of American’s have it much worse under the Biden admin than the Trump admin. So much so, Asians, Blacks and Hispanics are favoring Republicans.

      1. I question if it was intentional, part of some agenda or just gross incompetence as this admin seems to pin ball from one disaster to another.

        Upstate, just reverse engineer the results and gross incompetence would be the least of the possible root causes. Interestingly, if you look at it from the perspective that there is a Regime intentionally running an agenda to destroy this country, they are quite competent.

  12. Should a second democrat administration be elected for the presidency, a tunnel would be dug between Obacala’s house in Washington straight into the Oval Office. No longer would there be a charade as to who’s administering policies for Joe. The final thrust into the heart of the nation would occur and the fundamental change would be attempted.

  13. The most corrupt president in US History!

    Gas, groceries and energy they can’t steal enough votes this time.

    That’s right pedo Joe didn’t get 81million legal legitimate votes.

  15. A Biden win in 2024 means the stock of the corporation that makes Kevlar will be a good recommendation for anyone who wants to make money in the stock market.

  16. This article has a surreal quality. Biden is clearly non compos mantis, but the article is written as if he actually knows who he is, where he is, and has the ability to formulate goals and act on them.

    The only part that rings true is when Professor Turley says that Biden handed over the controls to a left-wing cabal, which explains the difference between his moderate signaling during the campaign and his administration’s ultra-left-wing policies.

  18. Biden’s second term? No, there is no “Biden”. It would be Obama’s 4th term.

    1. That about sums it up.

      And they’ll get there by cheating even worse than they did in 2020.

      1. And they’ll get there by cheating even worse than they did in 2020.

        Of course! there is also the lack of cojones with Republicans.

        Virginia Gov Glenn Youngkin, Republican, got a rude awakening to his manner of governing. Republicans lost the Virginia House, and Dems maintained the Senate. Dems have full control of the legislative agenda and now Youngkin is a lame governor. He also has no cojones.

        Despite living in Richmond, I know more about the actions of the Florida Governor than the Virginia Governor. DeSantis is a leader. Having been a US Naval JAG Officer, served in Iraq providing guidance to SEAL teams where he engaged combat in Fallujah, and then as special assistant U.S. attorney in Florida, DeSantis knows how to charge and take a hill. Youngkin is not a leader. While he articulated important principles regarding parents and school choice, that only got his foot in the door. Regardless of his accomplishments since winning against Clinton darling, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, and Leftist Ralph Northam’s legacy, Youngkin is quiet, doesn’t engage daily the PR machinery necessary like DeSantis does to quash the Leftist MSM. I kept waiting for Youngkin and the real leader, Winsome Sears, his black Lt Governor, to launch and blitz the market. They peaked at election and since then they have sputtered as public voices. DeSantis has had it far worse than Youngkin in fighting the DNC and MSM. Yet, the fact that I know more about DeSantis governorship is an indictment of Youngkin two years in office. Sadly Youngkin’s time has come to a close, and with it also Winsome Sears.

        We need fighters to lead our misinformed, complacent, listless voters. Youngkin is not one of them. Republicans have always been lackluster, dispassionate, genteel. Democrats are ferocious, passionate and take no prisoners. They are also Marxists but one can be a fierce, passionate, war-like leader and still be in God’s graces, e.g. Ronald Reagan, Pope John Paul II, Lady Margaret Thatcher, etc. DeSantis is one of them.

        1. Estovir – you make some interesting points. This likely puts the kibosh on any aspirations Y might have had for higher office. I agree with you on DeSantis’s leadership qualities as governor. That is his sweet spot, he’s done a great job, and he should not have tried to run for POTUS, at least not this year. It was not his time.

          1. “he’s done a great job, and he should not have tried to run for POTUS, at least not this year. It was not his time.”

            Agreed.

            I love DeSantis and am hoping his impatience doesn’t negatively impact a future Presidential run. If something happens to Trump, doubtful, I hope DeSantis wins the nomination.

            I am angry at Trump and DeSantis for creating a split that harms the chances to defeat Democrats everywhere.

  19. Bidens should all be in jail….along with the people that protect them…and ILLEGALLY attack Trump!
    DC is broken…we are headed down the path of FASCISM!

    You still seems to think there is a Rule of Law in the US

    Nixon is a SAINT compared to todays Democrats

    1. Democrats are backed by people WHO HATE America…
      Remember lots of actors and luminaries LOVED the Fascism of Germany and Italy in the 1930’s

      Anyone that helps Illegals should be jail…and I mean by the 10,000’s

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