The Reverse Ginsburg Scenario: Democrats May Only Need to Wait Rather than Pack the Court

Below is my column in the Hill on one possible impact of the midterm elections: the possible shift of the Court to a liberal majority by simple attrition rather than packing. The decision of Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito to remain on the Court will make the election in 2028 an existential fight for the Court and other core institutions in this country.

Here is the column:

In Henry VI, Shakespeare wrote, “Defer no time, delays have dangerous ends.” Many today would like to chisel those words above the doors to the Supreme Court. Time and time again, justices waited too long for their own legacies. For many conservatives, the loss of both houses of Congress has created a true nightmare scenario in which two conservatives (Justice Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito) could hand Democrats the opportunity to take control of the Court without having to carry out their court-packing schemes. Control of the Court could now be lost by sheer attrition.

Timing has always been a looming question for justices who want to see their seats filled by like-minded jurists. However, it is difficult to walk away from being one of nine.

Some served beyond their own capabilities in clinging to the Court, becoming befuddled and isolated with age. That was the case with iconic justices such as William Douglas and Thurgood Marshall.

Others stayed too long to guarantee the preservation of their own legacies. The most recent example is Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Some of us wrote for years that Ginsburg was risking her legacy by not retiring while Barack Obama was president. After Trump appointee Amy Coney Barrett replaced her, many liberals (who were consciously silent before her death) lamented her decision.

Now, conservatives worry they may face a double tap. For two years, there has been speculation that Thomas (78) and Alito (76) might retire to allow a Republican president and Republican Senate to select their successors. Both declined.

If they were hoping for a two-year cushion, that window just closed with a resounding bang. Even if they were to resign in the next two years, it is unlikely that President Trump could replace them with a conservative nominee.

With 54 seats, the Democrats do not fear defections from independent-minded senators like Sen. John Fetterman (D., Pa.). (That number could increase to 56 if things break for the Democrats in Mississippi and Alaska). They will also cite the denial of a vote for Merrick Garland during the Obama Administration as a justification for denying a vote to Trump nominees.

Even before the election, liberals raised money to campaign against even prospective nominees for Trump.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris called for  Democratic donors to oppose  “additional justices” that might be nominated by President Donald Trump “before they happen.” She praised the fundraising by Josh Orton, president of the dark-money group “Demand Justice.” It was a notable endorsement since Demand Justice was infamous for its campaign to get Justice Stephen Breyer to resign, including mobile billboards reading “Breyer, retire. Don’t risk your legacy.” Demand Justice has also pushed a radical agenda, including court packing.

Of course, Breyer did resign and allowed Biden to replace him with Ketanji Brown Jackson, arguably the most far-left justice to ever sit on the Court.

As soon as the Democrats took control, the Senate Minority Leader (and possible incoming Majority Leader) Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.J.) declared that they would bar “any crappy nominees,” which was taken to mean any Trump nominee.

In fairness to Thomas and Alito, neither is diminished by age. Both have appeared in public and shown they are fully capable and effective. In the cases of Douglas and Marshall, they were eventually pressured to resign after they appeared on television and were clearly enfeebled.

The last two years have seen some of the most impactful opinions from Thomas and Alito in their careers on the Court.

Now, however, they could be looking at not two more years but six more years to wait for a Republican president if the midterms foreshadow the 2028 election.  If so, by the time a Republican could succeed such a Democrat, Thomas would be roughly 84 and Alito 82.

The risk is tremendous. If their vacancies cause a reverse Ginsburg, the Court would shift from a 6-3 majority favoring conservatives to a 5-4 majority favoring liberals.

Worse yet, in the calls to pack the Court with a liberal majority, politicians and pundits often point to Biden-appointee Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson as the model. Jackson has been widely criticized for a radical jurisprudence that discards long-standing norms and doctrines, including by her two liberal colleagues.

Such a court would make court packing entirely unnecessary. The signature opinions of Thomas and Alito would likely fall in quick succession, from Thomas’s gun rights decision in Bruen to Alito’s abortion ruling in Dobbs.

Nevertheless, it is much to ask for two jurists to resign when they are both mentally and physically capable, particularly after rendering some of their most influential opinions in the last two years.

Moreover, some believe that justices should not engage in strategic resignations to shape the ideology of the Court. These justices have a right to serve out their lifetime appointments as long as they can do the job. They can have a clear conscience serving as long as they are able, and leave their replacements to the will of the American people.

In any case, with less than six weeks left with a Republican Senate, the time has effectively run out for the retirement option in holding these seats for conservatives.

The irony is that these two justices can take considerable credit in the building of the conservative jurisprudence that has emerged in recent years on the Court. They have shown great patience in building the authority to overturn long-standing cases, from Roe v. Wade to Humphrey’s Executor. That legacy may now rest with their own longevity in the years to come.

Jonathan Turley is the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

 

55 thoughts on “The Reverse Ginsburg Scenario: Democrats May Only Need to Wait Rather than Pack the Court”

  1. The judicial system of the United States has succeeded in a venture no other entity could rationally have legally attempted. They have succeeded in pulling of a classical “coup d’etat”, though it was for a long time comin slowly, then suddenly. If one thinks about it, nothing in this country happens that a Federal Judge (a Priest, if you will) somewhere dislikes or disagrees with, until or unless a coven (panel or en banc) of Federal Appeals Court judges (the High Priests) overrules what the lower ranking priest has declared. Of course there are nine (for now) supreme and infallible Most High Priests who can overrule a Priest or a coven of High Priests. Sadly, there seems no other way of frustrating the desires of these black-robed priests.

    If the priests actually followed their “scripture” (the law) this would not be all bad. Once the priests and the high priest feel free to find emanations from penumbras and chart their own course, and on occasion even to shrug away the authority of the Most High Priests there are a number of descriptors for that condition: it could be called the Rule of Man, and accurately be so described. It could also be described as chaos in situ.

    Unfortunately we seem most unlikely to shed or free ourselvs from this rule of priests, until and unless some actions which cannot be spoken are committed. So where will this lead? In every preceding society where priests ruled, they over time accumulated to themselves more power and demanded for themselves ever increasing authority accompanied by unlimited demands for more authority over and reverence by those they ruled, until . . . .

    Think about it for moment. There is nothing that a state governor can do that a Priest or a coven of High Priests disapproves of. No decision of a state legislature is truly valid until proclaimed so by the some member of the black-robed priesthood (The attention of these magnificent men and women encompasses even the decisions of local county/parish school boards. Lately there is little that the president of the country can do without seeking the blessing of a Priest or a coven of High Priests or the Council of Most High Priests (SCOTUS). Is this the way it was meant to be from the beginning of our country? Could our founders have ever even envisioned a situation such as this? As the situation stands now, the only reason for the continued existence of the federal legislative and executive branches now is just to keep the various temples (courts) stocked with adequate numbers of priests of various ranks to keep the judicial coup in place and to deal with and rule upon ever more mundane and minuscule decisions that citizens are no longer entitled or capable of making for themselves.

    When every facet of a citizen’s life is determined by the whims of someone else, it makes little difference if that someone else is called a judge, a king, a dictator, or a tyrant. Just know the decisions are made for your own good and be silent and obedient.

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