We have long discussed the authoritarianism of Vladimir Putin whose history of beating protesters and striping away press freedom was put aside briefly for the Olympic ceremonies. However, Putin appeared to be eager to stop the love fest and turn on Ukraine. For history buffs, however, there is something a bit unnerving in Putin invading a neighboring country to protect Russian-speakers who are welcoming the troops as protectors. In case the Sudetenland does not come to mind, Poland is now mobilizing troops along the border to bring the historical analogy home for the rest of the world. While I believe that this crisis will be contained and Putin is not ready for a wider war, it is no accident that the blind nationalism and authoritarianism would lead to expansionism. Ukraine is not the Sudetenland and Poland is no longer using horses to repel tanks. Putin’s desire for control of this port and Lebensraum may not be as easy to hold as it was to take.
Putin has already secured approval from the Duma to send in troops into Ukraine — notably not just the Crimea but the whole country. (I will note that our own Congress — both Democrats and Republicans alike — showed no more independence in approving the Iraq invasions. Indeed, some like Hillary Clinton are now frontrunners for the next presidency). Hitler cited the close ties to the region of Czechoslovakia and their common language as an excuse for the invasion while German-speakers in the country welcomed the occupation. To make the analogy even more interesting, this is the anniversary of the German invasion of March 1939.
The analogy has not escaped Poland which released the following statement: “History shows – although I don’t want to use too many historical comparisons – that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time.”
Putin’s move is a clear violation of international law. There was no serious unrest and no attack on Russian forces or territory. There was not even a basis for a preemptive attack in anticipation of such violence.
The combination of the invitation for invasion in the Crimea with today’s march in Moscow calling for invasion seems a case of history repeating itself.
Of course, the jitters of the world are not helped by the fact that this is the location of the Crimean War between 1853-56 between Russia and France, Britain, the Ottoman Empire, and Sardinia. Russia lost.
I do not see a major role for the United States at the moment. Our involvement is only likely to trigger even greater insecurities that are so prominent in Russian history over its borders. While people in Congress are screaming to “get tough,” any direct intervention would be a domestic political move and serve no one’s interest in the Ukraine.
None of this history is likely to phase Putin who remains as he once was: a humorless, self-infatuated KGB Lt. Colonel. The one promising fact is the crashing of Russian stock. It will be interesting to watch, in a much more economically connected world, how the likely market pressures will affect Putin’s calculations.
Ukraine Mobile Phones Under Cyberattack
Reuters
Posted: 03/04/2014
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/04/ukraine-cyberattack-mobile-phones-russia-parliament-security_n_4895287.html?utm_hp_ref=media
Excerpt:
(Reuters) – Ukraine’s telecommunications system has come under attack, with equipment installed in Russian-controlled Crimea used to interfere with the mobile phones of members of parliament, the head of Ukraine’s SBU security service said on Tuesday.
“I confirm that an IP-telephonic attack is under way on mobile phones of members of Ukrainian parliament for the second day in row,” Valentyn Nalivaichenko told a news briefing.
Dredd
The hypocrisy gene disables vision.
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This is especially true of those who make up the media in this country. There are so many people with an ok vision, like this blog for instance. But sadly the official word we present to the world seems so hypocritical. Take the leaked phone conversation between Nuland and the Ambassador, I had a hard time believing that those people were speaking in my name!
Can you imagine Chinese Diplomats planning to topple our presidents, and saying stuff like :”oh, don’t put Palin, she’s not ready yet, put Gingrich instead, or bring back Rumsfeld or Ralph Nader..”
You know, Having lived very long periods abroad, I spent my time reassuring people about America, and how they should come and see for themselves how cool everyday life is…
I guess it’s our fault letting Wolf Blitzer and Tom Friedman speak for us!
nick spinelli
Dredd … Drawing a line and then backing off is exponentially worse than just walking away.
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No it isn’t, except to bloviating dementia sufferers in a bar who are too full of themselves to be able to find their feeble mind with both hands.
This is international relations, foreign relations, not bar brawling over football games.
We have more people in military marching bands than in the diplomatic corps.
Little wonder that the CIA effort to overthrow the Ukraine government, and the still ongoing one in Venezuela are not going to work out like they used to.
Or any other such efforts (Syria, Iran) … we have been found out, which has nothing to do with penis strength.
What is weak is our reputation in the world due to our weak minds damaged by tumors of mental disease.
Mental disease kills far, far more Americans than imaginary enemies do:
(Alzheimer’s Association). No wonder our warmongering idiots are so desperate to find some enemies who will kill as many of us as we kill of ourselves.
Even the military NSA can’t find that magic enemy, so the dementia of propaganda pricks forward in fantasy, all because of “brain tumors.”
Elaine, amazingly brave of Abby Martin. I hope she gets out of Russia safely, if that’s where they were filming.
I kind of hate to be as negative as Dredd, but pretty much north, south, east, or west of I-495, and people think the Washington elite are nuts. That’s why you have these crazy disconnects like talking out of one side of their mouth about Iraq in ’02, then talk out the other side now. Other citizens around the world seem to understand this right away. Could it be we have called the shots for so long, we feel that we can just “make it up as we go?”
I believe the other sad situation is that there is a core group in DC that has been trying to get this party started for a long time.
Elaine M,
…
Secretary of State John Kerry – who stood on the Senate floor in 2002 and voted to authorize the invasion of Iraq because “Saddam Hussein [is] sitting in Baghdad with an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction” and there is “little doubt that Saddam Hussein wants to retain his arsenal of weapons of mass destruction” – told Face the Nation on Sunday: “You just don’t in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext.”
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The 21st and 19th centuries?
He left out the 20th century.
Why?
Because during the 20th century the warmongering government was suffering from a tumor which ended up “invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext” and then “invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext” and then “invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext” …
Which caused a million or so deaths by what he is calling illegal.
It is no wonder polls of people around the world consider the U.S. to be the greatest danger to world peace.
Any government is a danger to world peace if the people are too weak to keep it in its cage.
What Darren said.
I didn’t make the rules, but I understand them.
Dredd, I have said here SEVERAL times I do not see armed conflict as a solution. My point about Obama’s weakness is DON’T SAY “RED LINE.” I have said previously I thought we had no biz in Syria or Libya. Obama was trying to look strong and made a playground mistake. Drawing a line and then backing off is exponentially worse than just walking away.
Keith
… One of the main problems Americans have is that they have a very hard time seeing themselves as others see them.
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The hypocrisy gene disables vision.
The important thing is, those people are there now no matter how they got there. And there was a big problem brewing.
The tribal migrations, wars, treaties, etc are all very complex. Not like here where we threw the Native Americans aside, and that was the end of it. Every war caused boundaries to be drawn, and redrawn. Kind of like Yugoslavia, just a pile of states conveniently clumped together that only the strong personality with an almost mythological hero status of Tito could hold together. It didn’t last long after he died. Or a more painful example, Germany, that was carved up after WWI without respect to the populations. Even Keynes knew that scenario was going to end badly. I don’t remember the exact details of Ukraine’s settlement after WWI and II, but you can be sure it was messy and was done to please someone else somewhere who was not Ukrainian. Then gulped up into the Soviet Union. Just goes to show how long history takes to play out sometimes. Sometimes motives that seem to be made of haste actually have a long history (well, unlike our foreign policy). A similar scenario could have happened here with the Civil War. Could we imagine the mess here if we were as many as five countries now??
nick spinelli
Dredd, It was in August of 2012, 3 months before the election, that Obama drew “the red line” regarding Syria using chemical weapons. It was off the cuff. He was trying to buck up. However, he obviously didn’t realize that was REAL serious. Weakness is feeling you have to be tough and talk tough about “red lines” and not follow through when that line is crossed. He’s being punked by Iran regarding nukes. Men like Putin, Assad, etc. smell weakness and pounce on it. There will be more. I can’t believe I am saying this but I wish Hillary was still @ the State Dept. She’s got more balls than Obama and Kerry combined.
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“Warmongering is strength, peace is weakness.”
Why don’t you just say it?
Because it is obvious bullshit when you don’t PC it?
SWM, That appears to be the case.
What’s lost here is, how did so many Russians end up in the Ukraine and Crimnea, in the first place? No one in Western media seems to actually know. Without knowing the answer to this question, no one can say he knows Ukrainian history.
Darren,
No, he did not, but from what I have read, it appears that a clash was about in the process between the new government and Crimeans who were now the outraged party. That is what I drew my conclusion from. It’s easy not to be objective. I have tried to play devil’s advocate for the sake of discussion. Seems it was needed here for a more full analysis. Interested to hear your response because I always learn a lot whenever I read your contributions!
The world is interconnected now, and brute force may only solve the moment. I think Putin has a much larger role in the world for Russia in mind, and what happens here could advance it, or end the possibility for it in his lifetime.
“To look at it even further, maybe from Putin’s perspective, he almost has a no win situation.”
~+~
Well, he didn’t have to order invasion the Crimea to begin with. I don’t see him as forced into the situation.
The markets can turn around if he ends this well. This has a much bigger, and far-reaching implications. Americans as a whole don’t have the broader sense of history Europeans have. He has way more to gain by keeping a peaceful transition. As I said, he can set a new precedent for the way a powerful country can act in the world. Unlike actions in Afghanistan, Irag, Egypt… blah, blah, blah…
I came to the same conclusion about the comparison between Adolph and Vladimir with regard to the Sudentenland and the Crimea. It is especially a strange and eerie coincidence how the Nazis held the ’36 Olympics and later the invasion of Poland and this.
We signed an agreement with the Ukraine in ’97 to protect her in exchange for her relinquishing nuclear weapons. Ukraine is in the process of becoming a NATO nation. We should along with our European allies honor our agreements.
Darren, the US and UN violated the Helsinki treaty when the US and NATO abrogated that treaty, and dismembered Serbia. GHW Bush told Gorbachov that NATO would NOT expand into the former SU local governments. Once again the US lied and actually trashed treaties the US had signed. So in your view only the US can be trusted, and any acts of self defense are outlawed. Incredible.
http://qz.com/183182/the-markets-are-punishing-russia-more-swiftly-than-diplomats-ever-could/