We have long discussed the authoritarianism of Vladimir Putin whose history of beating protesters and striping away press freedom was put aside briefly for the Olympic ceremonies. However, Putin appeared to be eager to stop the love fest and turn on Ukraine. For history buffs, however, there is something a bit unnerving in Putin invading a neighboring country to protect Russian-speakers who are welcoming the troops as protectors. In case the Sudetenland does not come to mind, Poland is now mobilizing troops along the border to bring the historical analogy home for the rest of the world. While I believe that this crisis will be contained and Putin is not ready for a wider war, it is no accident that the blind nationalism and authoritarianism would lead to expansionism. Ukraine is not the Sudetenland and Poland is no longer using horses to repel tanks. Putin’s desire for control of this port and Lebensraum may not be as easy to hold as it was to take.
Putin has already secured approval from the Duma to send in troops into Ukraine — notably not just the Crimea but the whole country. (I will note that our own Congress — both Democrats and Republicans alike — showed no more independence in approving the Iraq invasions. Indeed, some like Hillary Clinton are now frontrunners for the next presidency). Hitler cited the close ties to the region of Czechoslovakia and their common language as an excuse for the invasion while German-speakers in the country welcomed the occupation. To make the analogy even more interesting, this is the anniversary of the German invasion of March 1939.
The analogy has not escaped Poland which released the following statement: “History shows – although I don’t want to use too many historical comparisons – that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time.”
Putin’s move is a clear violation of international law. There was no serious unrest and no attack on Russian forces or territory. There was not even a basis for a preemptive attack in anticipation of such violence.
The combination of the invitation for invasion in the Crimea with today’s march in Moscow calling for invasion seems a case of history repeating itself.
Of course, the jitters of the world are not helped by the fact that this is the location of the Crimean War between 1853-56 between Russia and France, Britain, the Ottoman Empire, and Sardinia. Russia lost.
I do not see a major role for the United States at the moment. Our involvement is only likely to trigger even greater insecurities that are so prominent in Russian history over its borders. While people in Congress are screaming to “get tough,” any direct intervention would be a domestic political move and serve no one’s interest in the Ukraine.
None of this history is likely to phase Putin who remains as he once was: a humorless, self-infatuated KGB Lt. Colonel. The one promising fact is the crashing of Russian stock. It will be interesting to watch, in a much more economically connected world, how the likely market pressures will affect Putin’s calculations.
As a side question, what ever happened to the “anti-war left?” I watched, well, admittedly seconds of Maddow last night, and it sounded like she was calling up the air strikes. Has all of the liberal population been absorbed into neocon philosophy?? “If you’re not PC, all-inclusive, put aside your own values” we’ll start with a bolshevik-style uprising then bomb you to death.” …Well, I think I just actually defined the neoconservative movement. Sorry for obvious…
Darren Smith
So in other words you are saying Randy that no treaties from Helsinki forward should be followed?
Are you implying Russia was justified in its invasion of the Ukraine?
===========
I think the situation is like when a complaint if filed.
It contains allegations.
Allegations which must be proved, with the burden of proof on the one making the allegations.
The decision cannot be made by the one filing the complaint, there must be an independent, competent, and unbiased third party.
A judge or a jury.
And both sides must be given an equal and fair opportunity to present their case.
The United Nations or the International Criminal Court are suggested venues.
Unitl then, “invasion” and “coup” are mere allegations.
Thus, it is better that the allegations are not quoted as fact (except by the trier of fact in a motion to dismiss scenario, or by the parties who agree on material facts in a summary judgment scenario).
Our jurisprudence has some dynamics in it that media should take notice of.
nick spinelli
Dredd, It’s anthropology, I thought you were into that stuff. We will simply need to disagree.
===============
I think we will have to agree to disagree if you think group behavior is to be diagnosed exactly the same as individual behavior in this context.
But not so if metaphor, epitome, and micro/macro techniques can be used to analyze these dynamics.
In that sense we can ask “is it a tumor“, or is it “neurosis” that propels nations into things they would not otherwise do?
In that sense we could ask the same thing of a conflict in a bar.
Yet, there are observations by knowledgeable people who feel that at the professional, clinical level, group behavior has a dimension that individual behavior does not have:
Group: “One would say that [man] is destined to exterminate himself after having rendered the globe uninhabitable.” – Lamarck
Group: “The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
Group: “If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.” – James Madison
Both: “Insanity in individuals is something rare – but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche
Individual: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair
Group: “Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.” – Claud Cockburn
So in other words you are saying Randy that no treaties from Helsinki forward should be followed?
Are you implying Russia was justified in its invasion of the Ukraine?
Darren, IN the main, I am against countries invading their neighbors, but I have to look at all the facts of a case. in this specific instance, I think the Russians are justified in acting to counter the coup that was staged by extreme right wing nationalists. You have to remember the FACT that we now know the US was active in staging the coup against the legitimate ELECTED government of the Ukraine against the Russian speaking population which is nearly a majority. I was in the Ukraine in 1984 and drove around the place. The Ukrainian language and Russian were equal in use for all functions. The Ukrainian, Krushchev gave Ukraine the Crimea as part of its territory in1954. So there was no long history of it being part of the Ukraine. I would go further than Putin, and I think he would be justified in invading ALL of the Ukraine and restoring the previous government. I doubt he will do that since he will then inherit all of its debt and have to bail out the Ukraine, plus having to fight the nationalists. Putin is quite correct in intervening and is justified. He is not as bad as the US in fooling around in other countries internal affairs, not to mention what the US did recently in Iraq.
To give some other examples of foreign intervention that I think were justified, there is the Turkish invasion of Cyprus where the Greek military dictatorship overthrew the legitimate elected government of that country and wanted union with Greece. The Greek colonels has just finished killing off over 20,000 of their fellow Greeks, so when the Brits refused to do what they were pledged to do by treaty, the Turks invaded to keep the Greeks from doing to the Turkish folks what they had done in Greece. While that was technically illegal under the UN Charter, I think that the Turks had no other choice and saved a lot of lives. Another instance was the invasion of Cambodia by Vietnam to get rid of the genocidal regime of Pol Pot. Instead of condemnation, Vietnam should have gotten our support, but Ronnie Reagan sided with Pol Pot and was giving him arms and money. Then we have the inaction by Clinton in Rwanda. At least he had enough decency and honesty to acknowledge his mistake in NOT taking military action and apologized to the people of that country. While Clinton did the correct diplomatic thing according to the UN Charter, he and I think he was gravely mistaken. I am all for following the letter of the law in most instances, but there are situations and times when it is more important to follow the spirit than the absolute letter of the law. The UN has now moved in that direction as a result of Rwanda I might add.
I also have to note the fact that when Putin invaded Georgia, W Bush did absolutely NOTHING at all, and he was not called “weak” and passive about aggression. I thought that the US had no business there, and the regime that was elected in Georgia had FAR more legitimacy than the current US installed one in the Ukraine. The Russians confined their military ops to just the portion of Georgia that had a Russian speaking majority since the regime was seriously threatening the lives of them. Georgia by the way was seeking NATO membership as was the Ukraine. It is absurd to think that any country will allow a military alliance to form on its borders which directly threatens and is very aggressive against it. If any person can say that the US was justified in attacking Iraq, then they will have to agree that Putin is FAR more justified than was the US.
Samantha, WTF?
Ukraine gained independence in 1991, after many decades of Soviet domination and politburo rule. Both Russians and Ukrainians were dancing in the streets of Kiev, both ethnic groups having formed a kinship under Soviet exploitation of Russians and Ukrainians alike. Almost from this outset, Moscow began meddling in Ukraine’s political affairs, throwing elections by killing journalist and candidates who could not be bribed, which violence now divided the ethnic groups. It’s akin to Mexico helping Hispanics gain political control of, say, Southern California. Then, after the citizens of California became fed up with monumental Hispanic corruption, took control back by force, Mexico then responding with military troops, occupying Southern California under the guise of protecting Hispanics. So what if the Ukrainians threw the corrupt Russians out of office? They couldn’t throw them out by elections, so they threw them out by force. No matter how you otherwise want to slice it, you can’t argue that Putin should have a free pass on this one.
A legitimately elected head of state is thrown out and asks for help from Russia. This is none of our business. I smell a rat and it isnt Putin this time.
This smells like Wag the Dog, only it isnt going to be a fictional war. An unpopular sitting president with big trouble at home and no stature abroad. There is the IRS scandal, Benghazi, NSA spying and a terrible economy with large unemployment, some say over 70 million if you include people who arent looking.
What better way to unify this country than a shooting war with the Russians, all those cold warriors could finally find comfort in their lazy boys as our young men and women deploy to Kiev. And our glorious leader takes us into battle against the evil Putin.
When McCain and Kerry are on the same page, it has got to be the wrong thing to do.
At least it is spring time for Obama so he doesnt have to worry about the Russian winter when he pushes up into Russia through Kursk and on to Moscow.
I wonder if he even knows of Napolean’s trouble in Russia? Somehow I doubt it.
But he sure would look good in one of those Russian fur hats.
Interesting read here from a former senior cia analyst and a “what planet did you come from again??” Yale professor. Picked it up after I read Dredd’s link. Nice background:
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/3/3/who_is_provoking_the_unrest_in
Dredd, It’s anthropology, I thought you were into that stuff. We will simply need to disagree.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-the-feckless-tyrant/2014/03/03/73470bdc-a320-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html
Weak, strong. Feckless, tyrant. So which is it? It might not be dementia, it might be schizophrenia.
Here are three folks who know the difference between a bar fight and international diplomacy:
http://www.democracynow.org/blog/2013/5/23/video_jeremy_scahill_noam_chomsky_on_secret_us_dirty_wars_from_laos_to_yemen_to_pakistan
nick spinelli
Dredd, It all comes down to that primal males shit. It doesn’t matter if it’s foreign relations, contract negotiations, or a bar room debacle.
…
==================
Very few have that eastern “allie samie” fantasy Nick.
[fixed link from earlier comment] From (Washington’s Blog):
“Fear of terrorists made the American public afraid, gullible and easy to manipulate for more than a decade.
But now – despite the best efforts of the military-industrial complex to intentionally whip up an exaggerated hysteria of Islamic terrorists – Americans are starting to wake up from our fear-induced haze:
We don’t buy the “justifications” for mass surveillance
For the first time since 9/11, we value privacy more than anti-terror protections
We’re more afraid of the government than of terrorists
We’re sick of war … and no longer falling for the government’s pro-war arguments
Indeed, Americans are realizing that we’re more likely to be killed by lightning, toddlers, brain-eating parasites or bad government policy than terrorism.
So how can the poor lads in the military industrial complex keep the gravy train going?
The evil Russians! That worked last time … it’ll work again!
All they have to do is re-demonize the Russians. How long can it take to scrub the images of the peaceful Olympics – and Putin’s prevention of war against Syria – out of people’s minds, and re-instill the fear of the old Red Menace?”
nick spinelli
Dredd, It all comes down to that primal males shit. It doesn’t matter if it’s foreign relations, contract negotiations, or a bar room debacle. You obviously don’t understand that. I would therefore love to negotiate w/ you. Successful females understand it. Naomi Wolf writes about it. She tried to make Al Gore an alpha male. My understanding of it has literally saved my life dealing w/ an angry armed man. The more you ridicule this primal stuff the more you diminish your argument. As I said to someone else, this isn’t chess, it’s hardball. Not for the weak kneed or faux macho men. Again, Hillary understands it better than Obama or our mortician Sec. of State. She wore the pants[suit].
======================
Nick, be careful this might give you a stiffie, so take off your kilt before reading it:
(Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala – 4, quoting a strong U.S. General). Hey, pain is weakness leaving you bod bro, and Cheezus is a primal male eh?
Dredd, It all comes down to that primal males shit. It doesn’t matter if it’s foreign relations, contract negotiations, or a bar room debacle. You obviously don’t understand that. I would therefore love to negotiate w/ you. Successful females understand it. Naomi Wolf writes about it. She tried to make Al Gore an alpha male. My understanding of it has literally saved my life dealing w/ an angry armed man. The more you ridicule this primal stuff the more you diminish your argument. As I said to someone else, this isn’t chess, it’s hardball. Not for the weak kneed or faux macho men. Again, Hillary understands it better than Obama or our mortician Sec. of State. She wore the pants[suit].
Thanks the post, Elaine. Thanks to the visitor with the links. Maybe we can avoid another horrible scene of human suffering. Maybe.
In the meantime, yes “terrorism” was losing it’s luster of fear. Bring back the “reds.” Rinse, repeat with the name of your choice.
oops, the link in my last comment is broken.
Here is the fix: [negligent treatment – 424,000]
Are u skeert sheetless yet?
The leading causes of American deaths, and the quantity of deaths, according to strong McCain and his strong boyfriend from the Carolinas:
The top 11 causes of American deaths according to the CDC and AMA:
(CDC.gov).
Let’s follow Southern Man and invade abortions caused only by legitimate rapes.
Let’s hope this will not end like the last time for the Russian-speakers nor will be established an Don line for the border between Russia and Ukraine.
From (Washington’s Blog):
“Fear of terrorists made the American public afraid, gullible and easy to manipulate for more than a decade.
But now – despite the best efforts of the military-industrial complex to intentionally whip up an exaggerated hysteria of Islamic terrorists – Americans are starting to wake up from our fear-induced haze:
Indeed, Americans are realizing that we’re more likely to be killed by lightning, toddlers, brain-eating parasites or bad government policy than terrorism.
So how can the poor lads in the military industrial complex keep the gravy train going?
The evil Russians! That worked last time … it’ll work again!
All they have to do is re-demonize the Russians. How long can it take to scrub the images of the peaceful Olympics – and Putin’s prevention of war against Syria – out of people’s minds, and re-instill the fear of the old Red Menace?”
Dred has a way with words. 😀
You certainly got that one right.