It was like watching Master Sergeant Hans Georg Schultz suddenly appear in back-to-back performances in the New England Patriots headquarters. Coach Bill Belichick insisted that he not only had no idea how the balls in the game with the Colts were deflated, he claimed utter ignorance about virtually anything to do with the subject of air pressure and footballs. He was followed by quarterback Tom Brady who, despite previously saying that he preferred underinflated balls, said that he could not tell that the balls were deflated (even when a Colts employee could immediately feel the difference and report it). It is the immaculate deflation. It just happened by some cosmic coincidence over(1) and over(2) and over(3) and over(4) and over(5) and over(6) and over(7) and over(8) and over(9) and over(10) and over(11) again.
In the law, there is a certain thing called circumstantial evidence and it reads like this. First, the Patriots were playing on a rainy day when deflating a ball can help a QB throw and a receiver catch in the conditions of play. Second, Brady previously said that he preferred under-inflated balls.. Third, 11 out of 12 balls were deflated. Fourth, it appears that the Colts did not have deflated balls. (I will not include a suggestion of modus operandi or prior conduct evidence involving the Patriots in prior allegations of cheating).
What appears clear is that such deflation is not accidental. The New York Times includes a quote from Kevin Murphy, who runs the American football division at Wilson that such deflation could not be the result of colder weather or spiking the ball.
No one is of course coming forward to admit any knowledge of the cheating. However, that does not mean that the NFL should then just walk away in frustration without a designated defendant. In the absence of some notion of a crazed, rogue ball-inflating employee, the team is still accountable for another violation of NFL rules. There has been no plausible explanation offered thus far for the evidence. If the NFL walks away or simply issues some rhetorical sanction, it sends a message that rules cannot be broken unless there is no one caught in the act or willing to confess in the aftermath. As noted earlier, deterrence is accomplished through the relative adjustments between detection rates and sanctions. The lower the detection rate, the higher sanctions must be to achieve deterrence.
Under the rules, the organization could be fined $25,000. Even if you multiply that by the balls, it would still only be $275,000 — a small fine for giving Brady his preferred under-inflated balls. The most serious penalty may be the loss again of a draft pick, which would seem more than justified in this circumstance. My problem is that, if the NFL believes this was intentional, there is a continuing pattern of dishonesty.
There may be some challenge in terms of causation with reluctant witnesses, a problem often encountered in the medical area. This is a standard problem in the medical field where there is often multiple actors and sketchy records. Indeed, the court in Ybarra v. Spangard faced such a problem in terms of causation when no doctor or nurse came forward to identify the responsible party or parties in a case of malpractice. The court allowed the case to continue on the basis of the staff as a whole — a response to what is sometimes called the “conspiracy of silence” in the profession.
There is also a doctrine of joint and several liability that would seem analogous. This is a team working in concert for a common end. Regardless of which agent of the team committed the violations (if the NFL determines it was likely an intentional act), it was done on behalf of the team. There is a rogue employee defense but the team itself is responsible for the balls and compliance with the rules.
I am also curious how Brady was not questioned by the NFL, which insists that it is doing a thorough investigation. Brady said that he has not spoken with NFL investigators. I must also confess that I fail to see how a seasoned NFL quarterback had no inkling that the ball were deflated as Brady says. Brady simply insisted “I have no knowledge of anything. I have no knowledge of wrongdoing. I have no problem saying that – as far as I know.” Belichick also insisted that he knows very little about pressure and footballs period: “I had no knowledge of the various steps involved in the game balls and the process it went through and what happened.”
It all seemed strangely familiar:
It took until SB Sunday, but the NFL has finally seen fit to leak some relevant info about this “scandal”:
Eleven of the 12 footballs used in the first half were judged by the officials to be under the minimum of 12.5 PSI, but just one was two pounds under. Many of them were just a few ticks under the minimum.
This is, of course, just the sort of pattern that would result if a dozen balls were submitted for inspection at a variety of psi levels that were all w/in legal range under indoor conditions, and then tested immediately after having been in temps 20° to 25° lower for an hour or so.
The “mystery” of the Colts’ balls being at or above 12.5 psi, would be easily solved if it turned out that they were held indoors at halftime for about 15 minutes before the refs tested them–having first tested the NE balls.
This is a classic–and nicely nonpartisan–case of mass hysteria caused by a combination of sloppy reporting (a single tweet saying “11 of 12 balls were 2 pounds low!!”) and ignorance of basic science (“What Ideal Gas Law? The Colts’ balls didn’t deflate!!”)
And our esteemed blog host fell far short of the evidentiary standards I like to think he ordinarily holds himself to when he wrote this:
It is the immaculate deflation. It just happened by some cosmic coincidence over(1) and over(2) and over(3) and over(4) and over(5) and over(6) and over(7) and over(8) and over(9) and over(10) and over(11) again.
The story of who was behind the initial leak, what his agenda was, and how this all spun out of control should make an excellent cautionary tale that will almost certainly be forgotten. What will be remembered is “Shady Brady” and “Bill Belicheat”.
Nick,
“PR, “To each their own” is the oft heard phrase in my house growing up. I can tell houses where that was the credo, and houses where people were dictated to by stern and taciturn men. “To each their own” was my mom’s phrase. I can understand people not getting the fascination w/ this Deflategate. . But, this has been the lead story on the national news. It’s not like people here being fascinated w/ the sex lives of hermit crabs, and JT having several posts about it.”
Indeed Nick, to each their own; my mom’s phrase was “whatever floats your boat” as well as to each their own. I did not mean to sound critical, just teasing.
To reinforce, I did not intend to come across in a negative manner at all. The conversation here reminded me of family gatherings where the menfolk ended up talking/watching football while the womenfolk generally did not. Our online “family” gathering did the same thing. 🙂 I am sorry that my teasing fell flat. 🙁
It is an important story, since at its core it is about ethics, and the NFL has been shaken far too many times this past year by ethical issues–from abuse of women and children to bullying. Part of the reason I like reading JT’s posts is because of his concern about ethics.
Chip S …no apology necessary. I wasn’t clear in my remark. It was clarified.
I misinterpreted what you said, Ari, and apologize for misrepresenting it.
Chip S. said….
Reference my remark: “no one really knows how those balls deflated”
Ari, you’re better than this … Do you think the Ideal Gas Law sometimes works and sometimes doesn’t?
No, I don’t think that and I didn’t say so….and did not mean to imply it either. I may have been unclear. The Ideal Gas Law is in effect, and the issue raised by the NFL is whether it was augmented. I believe the issue is spurious at best, because from what I’ve been able to find, no measurements were made, post game, of the final 12 balls used in the 2nd half. They were no doubt also deflated to some extent, depending upon their initial pressure.
In short, I think the NFL is nit-picking and publicity whoring. No surprise to me. Given that the game outcome was obviously not impacted, what really is the issue?
I’ve said previously that I have lost interest of NFL football due to numerous reasons, not the least of which is poor officiating. To me it is now a pure entertainment industry, for profit, and far less a sport…even if many of players don’t subscribe to the shenanigans.
But, if hermit crab sex is your thing, I can get you some video!!
PR, “To each their own” is the oft heard phrase in my house growing up. I can tell houses where that was the credo, and houses where people were dictated to by stern and taciturn men. “To each their own” was my mom’s phrase. I can understand people not getting the fascination w/ this Deflategate. . But, this has been the lead story on the national news. It’s not like people here being fascinated w/ the sex lives of hermit crabs, and JT having several posts about it.
Inga,
“Honestly in the greater scheme of things in life, why does this matter so very much to anyone?”
I don’t get it either. 🙂
LOL!!
Annie
It’s football and every red blooded male knows..,
… The victor writes history.
Actually the question was rhetorical.
I’m asking anyone and everyone.
I presume you’re asking JT, who put up two posts about it.
Honestly in the greater scheme of things in life, why does this matter so very much to anyone?
no one really knows how those balls deflated
Ari, you’re better than this.
Do you think the Ideal Gas Law sometimes works and sometimes doesn’t? Of course not. And we can approximate the effect pretty well. “Skeptic” Neil deGrasse Tyson has had to walk back his twitter cock-up of yesterday. Now, presumably to save face, he’s arguing that the IDG can’t explain all of the psi loss. Of course, he has no factual basis for presuming to know what the actual pressure loss was, b/c he doesn’t know what the pre-game psi was.
Equally unsupported by actual measurement is the claim that the Colts’ balls didn’t lose any pressure during the game. But if that’s true, then the question for all the fifth-rate Sherlocks in the media should be, Why not? Who tampered with them, and why?
As for the Pats’ explanation, an independent lab in Pittsburgh has replicated the results Professor Belichick reported at his Sunday presser.
This entire week of nonsense–sadly, joined in by the blog host–has been based on nothing but the limited intelligence of the media.
Paul C … if the NFL officials handled all the balls all the time, there’d be no ball boys. Simple solution that eliminates the necessity to hang the lowest hanging fruit, so to speak….which is characteristic of government, but should not be part of pro sports. Truth is, I am speculating, is that no one really knows how those balls deflated. Or that it hasn’t been a phenomena by more teams historically. Funny to me is the fact that it is an issue in a blow out game when the ball inflation level made no difference.
That said, consider the fact I just do not care.
Chip S … you have just further educated me on the NFL sport I usually ignore. I’m still of the opinion that the NFL officials should control all of the balls all of the time. Given the opportunity I could use a inflation needle to deflate a ball by 2 lbs very covertly. Remove the opportunity, remove the problem.
Aridog – I did see after 40 interviews that they have narrowed their focus to some lowly ball boy. I am amazed that no one in the NFL thinks that science (physics) is the answer when we have clearly had demonstrated on here that science could be the answer. Yeah, let’s hang the ball boy instead of Boyle’s Law.