It was like watching Master Sergeant Hans Georg Schultz suddenly appear in back-to-back performances in the New England Patriots headquarters. Coach Bill Belichick insisted that he not only had no idea how the balls in the game with the Colts were deflated, he claimed utter ignorance about virtually anything to do with the subject of air pressure and footballs. He was followed by quarterback Tom Brady who, despite previously saying that he preferred underinflated balls, said that he could not tell that the balls were deflated (even when a Colts employee could immediately feel the difference and report it). It is the immaculate deflation. It just happened by some cosmic coincidence over(1) and over(2) and over(3) and over(4) and over(5) and over(6) and over(7) and over(8) and over(9) and over(10) and over(11) again.
In the law, there is a certain thing called circumstantial evidence and it reads like this. First, the Patriots were playing on a rainy day when deflating a ball can help a QB throw and a receiver catch in the conditions of play. Second, Brady previously said that he preferred under-inflated balls.. Third, 11 out of 12 balls were deflated. Fourth, it appears that the Colts did not have deflated balls. (I will not include a suggestion of modus operandi or prior conduct evidence involving the Patriots in prior allegations of cheating).
What appears clear is that such deflation is not accidental. The New York Times includes a quote from Kevin Murphy, who runs the American football division at Wilson that such deflation could not be the result of colder weather or spiking the ball.
No one is of course coming forward to admit any knowledge of the cheating. However, that does not mean that the NFL should then just walk away in frustration without a designated defendant. In the absence of some notion of a crazed, rogue ball-inflating employee, the team is still accountable for another violation of NFL rules. There has been no plausible explanation offered thus far for the evidence. If the NFL walks away or simply issues some rhetorical sanction, it sends a message that rules cannot be broken unless there is no one caught in the act or willing to confess in the aftermath. As noted earlier, deterrence is accomplished through the relative adjustments between detection rates and sanctions. The lower the detection rate, the higher sanctions must be to achieve deterrence.
Under the rules, the organization could be fined $25,000. Even if you multiply that by the balls, it would still only be $275,000 — a small fine for giving Brady his preferred under-inflated balls. The most serious penalty may be the loss again of a draft pick, which would seem more than justified in this circumstance. My problem is that, if the NFL believes this was intentional, there is a continuing pattern of dishonesty.
There may be some challenge in terms of causation with reluctant witnesses, a problem often encountered in the medical area. This is a standard problem in the medical field where there is often multiple actors and sketchy records. Indeed, the court in Ybarra v. Spangard faced such a problem in terms of causation when no doctor or nurse came forward to identify the responsible party or parties in a case of malpractice. The court allowed the case to continue on the basis of the staff as a whole — a response to what is sometimes called the “conspiracy of silence” in the profession.
There is also a doctrine of joint and several liability that would seem analogous. This is a team working in concert for a common end. Regardless of which agent of the team committed the violations (if the NFL determines it was likely an intentional act), it was done on behalf of the team. There is a rogue employee defense but the team itself is responsible for the balls and compliance with the rules.
I am also curious how Brady was not questioned by the NFL, which insists that it is doing a thorough investigation. Brady said that he has not spoken with NFL investigators. I must also confess that I fail to see how a seasoned NFL quarterback had no inkling that the ball were deflated as Brady says. Brady simply insisted “I have no knowledge of anything. I have no knowledge of wrongdoing. I have no problem saying that – as far as I know.” Belichick also insisted that he knows very little about pressure and footballs period: “I had no knowledge of the various steps involved in the game balls and the process it went through and what happened.”
It all seemed strangely familiar:
Lots of misinformation here about that NFL rule change re football prep.
First, Tom Brady was playing football for the University of Michigan in 1999. The rule change occurred in 2006.
That’s trivial, but this is not: the rule change did not transfer control of the game balls from NFL officials to the teams. It transferred control from the home team to both teams:
Manning and his New England counterpart, Tom Brady, were the driving forces behind a rule change this season that allows visiting quarterbacks to break in a dozen balls for use during every game. The visiting team’s offense previously had to play with balls that were broken in by the home quarterback—a little-known aspect of the home-field advantage.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/03/sports/football/03football.html?_r=1&
So, no, the pre-2006 rules did not call for scrupulous “chain of custody” rules that insulated pristine game balls from the shenanigans of sneaky coaches and players and ball boys. It simply gave each team an equal opportunity to get the game balls to conform to the preferences of their QBs.
Also in that NYT article you’ll find an extensive discussion of Manning’s and Brady’s obsession w/ the surface features of the ball, but no mention at all about them caring much about psi. But one QB did talk about ball pressure –David Carr, then the Denver QB, about whom the article says:
…he thought the ball expanded slightly at the altitude and felt slick because of the lower humidity. Before Houston’s preseason game at Denver, Carr instructed the ball boys to let a little air out of the Texans’ footballs.
And, presumably, Denver’s footballs as well.
So we learn two things about David Carr: (1) he’s a real sportsman, who was happy to help out the opposing QB in a preseason game, and (2) he didn’t consider it unseemly at all to ask the ball boys to adjust ball pressure to optimize performance.
And no, Carr was never coached by Bill Belichick. But maybe Tom Brady was once a member of the same UM fraternity that recently trashed a hotel. We’d better investigate, just to be sure. The integrity of the NFL is at stake!
Paul Hutchinson….thanks for history update. I didn’t know that. At this point, I don’t think it can be established who deflated the balls, if anyone did intentionally. As I said, the officials, and Umpires have control…and they need to revert to the pre-1998 system. It can be done, only question is, will they obviously follow the KISS principle. I, too, have my doubts. Since I don’t follow the NFL game, I am hardly the guy to dictate what they should so…only suggest it because it reduces the custody chain.
Paul Hutchinson…a simple solution (at least to a rube like me) would be for the NFL officials to provide all the balls and not have either team touch them before play. It’s not like the NFL couldn’t afford it…or couldn’t bill each team for their games. My understanding is that the game Umpire handles every ball on every play…which is why I question the “feel” argument. The league could also stipulate to the manufacturers that the balls not be so shiny/slick in the first place, thus at least partially negating the need to “rub down” the balls before play.
Any cover up, if there really is one, is exactly along the lines of how government officials do it…get so many others in the chain of events you cannot tell who actually did the act under scrutiny. The solution is to reduce that chain of personnel with custody, even briefly.
Your solution was the practice circ. 1998-9 when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady lobbied for the a NFL to allow teams to supply balls, saying- each QB likes the balls a little different. They will never go back to that now because every QB has gotten used to the practice. Regarding chain of custody, my feeling is, I do not care if the guilty party is the forth-string water-boy he is the team and the punishment should be the same as if the owner or Belicheck did it.
Weird thing is that in one of the television reports I heard that the Officials inflate the balls to spec after turned over to them for sequestration. If that is true, then my point about this being about the officials is more on point. I don’t know, actually, and I could care less…a blow out game like that cited seems to make football pressure irrelevant…except for the publicity. But what do I know…e.g., not a fan anyway.
Why does everyone assume the patriots filled their footballs to 12.5psi at 70f?
Or assume that the patriot footballs were room temperature before being filled?
“They could have filled the balls with hot air (at the precise temperature calculated by an MIT post-doc who must obviously remain nameless) and simply waited for it to cool. ”
Probably what they did. As long as they had warm footballs when they filled them to 12.5psi, they would drop to 10psi in those 2 and a half hours after inspecting. Its why they can sit up there with a straight face and say they didn’t take air out of the balls with a needle.
There has been so many reports, truth or otherwise, the entire charade is just that. Richard Sherman, Sea Hawk Safety, said it best in a TV interview – paraphased- Roger Goodall will not punish the Patriots because he and Robert Craft, Patriot’s owner, are closer than stink. He was a guest at Craft’s home the night before the game in question. They share family pictures. Add to this the wishy-washy way Goodall has handled previous situations and I agree totally with Sherman. Yes, the outcome of the game would not have been different if the balls were flat. Yes, Belicheck and The owner probably did not know anything about it. Yes, according to many players, Brady lied when he said he could not tell the difference in the balls. Yes, Brady did not deflate the balls himself. Maybe the Patriots were just pushing the envelope but they were responsible for the outcome. The sole goal of the investigating team should be to find it there was a coverup because the “crime” is obvious. If not, fine them and move on. If there was a coverup, make the team pay dearly and the guilt party fined severly and put on probation. Fine Brady one game’s salary for lying and give Belicheck the coach-of-the-year award.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/12217564/nfl-conducting-investigation-claim-new-england-patriots-used-underinflated-footballs
Perhaps it’s where you’ll find Seahawks’ coach
Pete Carroll’s integrity.
Aridog, I think a simpler variant of your theory is that sports “reporters” hate Belichick b/c he makes clear how stupid he thinks they are. Which, of course, they are.
There is one media guy has a sense of humor about it, tho:
https://twitter.com/tomecurran/status/559091182006173697
Use the same mud MLB umpires rub on baseballs before games. It comes from the Delaware River, near the Delaware River Water Gap in NJ. That is a picturesque part of NJ, for those who only see NJ from the Sopranos.
Nick – does that mud include discarded corpses?
As for ball prep by rubbing or whatever, bah. Let the league provide the balls and the QB’s do their scuffing magic in front of the whole audience. Better yet, also require the manufacturers of the balls to make them less slick and shinny. Then if deflated balls are discovered, look at the officials, period.
I am back to my original cynical theory..that this whole thing about the footballs in a blow out game was/is hype, publicity whoring at its finest, by the NFL .
I have no idea, but I noted 11 of 12 and just assumed the 12th would be properly inflated for kicking. I really don’t know. If Brady’s numbers are good this becomes a non story really quick
I guess the 12th ball was for punting. My guess is Brady liked the grip better and nobody ever noticed. It will only be relevant if properly inflated balls impact Brady’s performance over a prolonged period of time. If the Pats blow out their next opponent this will blow over immediately as being inconsequential. I actually don’t think Bellicheck knew anything about it.
Free NYC Pic – the league supplies the balls for punts, unless you are suggesting this is a practice ball from the 12 team balls.
IMO the issue is irrelevant in such a blow out game….one reportedly won in the 2nd half using the “legal” footballs. At best it is a “gotcha” moment when the “gotcha” had little or no impact on the game played. And I still wonder, if “feel” is such that a regular handler of footballs would know when one was “bad”… how did the Umpire not spot it, given he handles every ball used in every play?
Too funny for comment.
Paul Hutchison
Explain how the other team’s balls, in the same environment, for the same length of time, did not deflate.
———————————————–
That’s easy: they WEREN’T in the same environment. With the exception of a single ball that spent one minute outside the bag for a brief kneeldown, all of the Colt balls were inside a warm bag for the final 30 minutes of the first half. The Pats dominated time of possession and their footballs were being rained on and run through cold mud twice as long and for nearly all of the most important final 30 minutes that determine the internal temperature of the footballs. The testing must have taken place almost immediately after the balls were brought inside due to the brevity of halftimes and it would have been suspicious had the Pats footballs NOT registered much lower pressure. Combine that with the Pats admission that they aim for the low end of the legal range in the initial testing while the Colts were likely average or higher (given Luck’s big hands, he probably shares Aaron Rodgers’ preference for the higher inflation).
In short, the Pats balls almost certainly had lower initial legal inflation and were much colder inside when tested at halftime because they spent the previous 30 minutes in very DIFFERENT environments.
If we really need some experts on inflation and deflation, we should consult Janet Yellen, someone else working at the fed, or Mr. Andrea Mitchell.
Cutler has a large left hand and a small right hand. He is bipolar that way. Doctors think he is supposed to be left dominant. He kicks left footed, eats left handed, writes left handed, but for unknown reasons, throws right handed. Packer fans believe it is St. Vincent being a guardian angel.
Trooper, Is that a new chapter? It’s quite topical. For myself, the Instant Replay series is some of your best work. In reality, I think Starr has small hands like Brady. You know what they say about small hands, or is that feet?