While President Donald Trump has claimed that his “base” remains strong and is growing, the polls indicate that the reality is quite different. Two additional polls continue to show a decline in support with one, the Investor’s Business Daily Poll, showing Trump at a remarkably low 32 percent. There is however an interesting comparison with a politicians who is the polar opposite of Trump in style and substance: French President Emmanuel Macron. Polls show Macron at the same not-so-sweet spot in polling: 36 percent. That is even lower than the CNN poll for Trump out this week at 38 percent. That is also one percent higher than Bill Clinton around this time.
What is clear that it is not true that Trump’s base support is growing. The IBD poll shows Trump’s decline shows a decline from 83 percent to 71 percent among Republicans. His support among independent is plummeting. The vast majority of American no longer believe Trump or his Administration. That is obviously a serious problem not just for Trump but the Republicans facing reelection fights in 2018.
However, it is also true that other politicians have similar figures, including media darling Macron.
Macron has dropped seven points with just 36 percent with a positive view of his performance. He has 49 percent with a negative view — a 13 percent rise. That is even a more startling drop for Macron than it was for Trump. After all, Trump lost the popular vote while Macron won with 66 percent of the vote.
The drop is due in large part of austerity cuts in public spending in France — something long overdue.
The emphasis on the polls is understandable, but the lack of context is disappointing. The polling numbers for Trump are presented as unprecedented and disastrous without any comparison to prior presidents like Clinton or contemporaries like Macron. The conclusion can be that none of this is good for any of these leaders but the reasons are different. Trump may indeed be alienating voters in a way that is unlikely to be reversed, but a comparative discussion would be interesting.
I still believe that Trump is making a serious mistake with these tweets and the personal attacks on opponents and the media. The independent voter figure could be a disaster for the GOP in losing both houses. Trump could then face a ramped up series of investigations and a virtual shutdown of any remaining chance for legislative reforms.