Wharton Study: Biden Tuition Debt Forgiveness Could Cost $1 Trillion

The alleged cost of $300 billion for the Biden tuition debt forgiveness plan was challenged by the White House as too high. Then the figure went up to $500 billion. Now the respected University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business estimates that it will cost up to $1 trillion. Putting the merits of such debt forgiveness aside, the unilateral plan to waive up to a trillion dollars without congressional approval is a dangerous and unconstitutional violation of our system of the separation of powers. Those Democrats applauding this plan in Congress are celebrating their own institutional obsolescence.

The Wharton analysis of the student loan forgiveness plan found that the cost could be $1 trillion over a 10-year period.

What is so troubling is that, not only did Biden circumvention Congress with the constitutional control of the purse, but this plan has divided the nation. While supported by a majority, there is intense opposition to the plan and its costs. The polling also shows conflicting concerns and support from the public as they learn more about the plan.

A new Emerson College Polling national survey found that 36% believe the loan handout is too much and 35% believe that it is just right. Thirty percent think it is not enough. Only roughly half of the country believes it will actually help students gain access to a college education.  One poll shows roughly half of the country supporting the plan while another poll shows 59% are concerned that the plan will fuel inflation. A NPR/Ipsos survey found 82% of respondents believed the government should prioritize making college more affordable over forgiving student loans.

This is precisely what congressional action is meant to address in vetting ideas and the costs of such ideas.  Instead, we are scrambling to learn the costs and expected impact after it is already approved by unilateral action of the president.

The celebration of members of Congress over the circumvention of their institution is hardly news. Members like Sen. Jeff Merkley (D, Ore.) have been calling on Biden to just act unilaterally.

When Madison described the essence of his constitutional vision of the separation of powers in Federalist 51, he declared “Ambition must be made to counteract ambition.”

No branch is supposed to have enough power to govern alone. Once power becomes concentrated in the hands of a president, citizens are left only with the assurance that such unchecked power will be used wisely – a Faustian bargain the framers repeatedly warned us never to accept.

The Madisonian vision has long been on the decline in Congress. One of the lowest points was the State of the Union address by former President Barack Obama when he announced that he intended to go it alone in achieving his policy goals, refusing to yield to the actions of Congress. One would have expected an outcry, or at least stony silence, from a branch that was being told it would be circumvented. Instead, there was rapturous applause that bordered on a collective expression of institutional self-loathing.

Now these members are applauding a president waiving a trillion dollars unilaterally because he knew that he could not get such a massive waiver from Congress. It is precisely what the Framers sought to avoid in a system of shared powers. Yet, even law professors are denouncing our constitutional system as the evil that must be attacked to achieve social justice. The embrace of such concentration of authority in a single politician is precisely what the condemned “constitutionalism” is meant to avoid.

For those who claim to be fighting for our constitutional system and democracy, this may be a good place to start.

123 thoughts on “Wharton Study: Biden Tuition Debt Forgiveness Could Cost $1 Trillion”

  1. I view this debt cancellation similar to modifying a mortgage or consumer loan. Not sure the federal government sees it the same way. If a portion of any loan is either forgiven or cancelled, the original loan is then modified. For example, if a portion of the student loan ($10,000) is cancelled, the original loan, say $40,000 is reduced by $10,000 bringing the new total to $30,000. The lender (federal government) may keep the same payment or modify the original agreement to a new payment over the remaining life of the loan. As student loans amortize, the new payment may be larger than the original payment. I haven’t seen any media coverage on this topic. For the average individual holding student debt, they may be surprised at the outcome. I’d be interested in your view Mr. Turley. Might be an interesting topic for future posts.

  2. The colleges already got their money. Forgiving student debt only encourages more debt in the future and a continued rise in college costs. We must make the reduction in college costs, and college importance, our priority. First, we need to end all federal spending on “education”, including the loan program, thus reduce the pool of cash in the system. Second, we should make it easier to discharge loans in bankruptcy, thus giving the schools an incentive to limit their admissions and provide students with marketable skills. Third, states should establish internet universities, priced at actual cost (which should be slight). The competition will work wonders. Fourth, by rigorous testing, we should insure that high schools increase the quality of their “instruction”, thus lessening the demand for a college degree. Unfortunately, we Americans have a guileless belief in the value of “education”. Thomas Edison never got past the 8th grade, and Lincoln was largely self-educated [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Lincoln]. It is learning, not education, that matters, and it is not clear these days how much public schools, beyond the primary stage, encourage learning.

    1. edwardmahl,
      Well said.
      I would only add, we need to streamline colleges. Focus on courses of the major/degree. If you are going into the medical field, focus on biological sciences, anatomy and physiology, the real world math those students would encounter.
      Same would go for someone getting a engineering degree.
      Some would argue the point of higher education is to produce a well rounded educated citizen.
      If it would shave a few thousands of dollars my college debt, then I would be all for not being forced to take classes in 16th century French poetry. Or anything DEI.

      1. The college and university system really should exist primarily to produce “well rounded educated citizens”, it really isn’t well suited to be a job training system, but that does mean there aren’t many, many professions that shouldn’t be shifted into a trade school environment.

        Lets face it, does a lawyer who does nothing but wills, power of attorney, real estate transfers, etc. really need a J.D? Wouldn’t it be better for someone who’s focus is more geared to just producing and shuffling paperwork go to an Associate or Certificate program?

    2. The U.S always runs a deficit. Therefore this “Forgiveness” will have to be paid for by some mix of increased taxes, the govt. paying increased interest over say 10years. The very people that are having their debt forgiven will be paying those increased taxes over a ten year period. This is nothing less than buying the votes of these recent college grads. Oh, have already seen stories where colleges are raising tuition and fees for 2022-23 year.

  3. Back in the 90’s I received a Pell Grant and Student Loan.
    This was enough to cover Tuition and Books respectively.
    ( I worked simultaneously to cover the balance of the Cost )

    After Graduation I received the Notice to begin repaying the Student Loan and thusly followed the instructions.
    All Debts were Paid On-Time and In Full.

    Will My Student Loan be Forgiven (?) or will it be UN-forgiven because I followed the Rules by
    Graduating with a University degree and Repaying the said Loan ?

    I hereby believe that to be standing on Equal Ground, My Loan should be Forgiven as well, … and a Refund made to reinstate me.
    If Others are getting a Free Pass then I deserve one to, I FOLLOWED THE RULES [.]

    Would One of you Attorneys like to take up my Case ???
    I am serious, Any Takers?

    1. As I understand it – anyone who was paying off their student loan during the pandemic grace period will actually have that money refunded up to the 10 or 20k they’re eligible for.

    2. There are at least 21 Individuals in the United States that have FOLLOWED THE RULES, as I have.
      That’s a Suit of CLASS ACTION status.

      What I am seeking is:
      In order to make me Whole, The Loan Forgiveness program needs to be Retro-Active.
      Meaning that: Anyone whom undertook a Student Loan is entitled to the Loan Forgiveness,
      in order to be Treated with Equal Rights of Loan Forgiveness.
      Regardless of when that Loan was made, and even more so if the Loan Obligation was Fulfilled.

      Again: If the [Student Loan Debtors {Un-Paid Class}] is entitled to Debt Forgiveness (A Free Ride),
      Then ALL Student Debtors (Previous and Current) who undertook said Loan Obligations
      shall have the the Loan Forgiven and Repaid (Financial Reinstatement) to Those whom labored to repay said Loan,
      and especially those who fulfilled the Loan Obligation [Student Loan Paid {Paid-Class}].

      Yeah – It’s not Fair to Forgive One Class of People and not Another.

    3. The Axio Article illustrates that this is an Entitlement Program disguised as a Loan Forgiveness Program.

      These Debtors, what did they do to receive this handout?
      They did NOTHING, when the Loans came Due, they threw the notices into the Garbage.
      They didn’t have to THINK about Their responsibilities.
      All they had to do is NOTHING, not even THINK.

      And all My: dedication, sweat, integrity, and effort, was all for not,
      because That’s what I get for THINKING.

      NIKE – “JUST DO NOTHING”

      China is ‘light-years’ ahead of the U.S., as well as a few European Countries.
      The U.S. Government has you so censored inside the Garden Walls, that it can not now
      let you see how badly the situation has become. How much the East has pulled ahead
      and how quickly We are being left behind. In every Field.
      (The Silk Road comes to your doorstep, one way or another)

      [Hey You out there] Quit stroking Your Ego, You sound like a bunch of 1980’s Detroit Executives.

      F.Y.I. CHINESE EV MANUFACTURES [a Partial List {very modestly 3/4}]
      baicsolar
      baojun
      bordrin
      bydgroup
      byton
      changan
      chery
      denza
      dongfeng
      faraday
      faw
      foxtron
      gac
      geely
      gwm
      gyon
      haima
      haval
      hawtai
      hengchi
      hozon
      iconiq
      jac
      jmev
      landwind
      leeco
      lixiang
      lynkco
      niutron
      qiantu
      saic
      sgmw
      singulato
      sitech
      volvo
      wanxiang
      wmm
      wuling
      xpeng
      yudo
      yulon
      zeekr
      zhidou
      zotye

      This compared to the: US, or Japan, or Korea in Automotive Industrial competition,
      hands-down beats the rest of the World’s prowess combined.

      It’s not just over – It’s been over. Washington has covered up and lied way to long.

      Yeah so why even finish that Education and Pay-Off the Loans, Why even ‘apply yourself to Life’.
      It’s OVER -Looser-

      1. Hey Sweetheart, I gotta tell ya it’s Over Baby.
        You gonna have to “Shake Your Money Maker” for ¥uans

  4. When is Joe Biden going to bail out Joe Plumber’s loans? Joe Cabinetmaker’s loans? Joe Electrician’s loans? Screw you Joe Biden.

  5. Since when has the left EVER cared about debt (unless it belongs to mewling prog brainwashed and useless graduates from university indoctrination centers)?

  6. Joe Biden still lies about being a “full professor” at U Penn for a few years. They paid him off too, to the tune of $1 million to “teach” a class. The whole ‘go to college’ thing is one big scam.

    1. Harvard paid Elizabeth Warren over $500k to teach a class. What information can one person possibly impart to a studient that is worth a half a million dollars for one class? It’s all one big scam.

      1. What count they impart?

        1: Run for office
        2: Get elected
        3:??????
        4:Profit!!

  7. $1 Trillion dollars? Biden cheated? So do College students.

    Reports Of Cheating At Colleges Soar During The Pandemic

    Cheating jumped by more than 79% from fall of 2019 to spring of 2021.

  8. Seize the endowments! Tax the endowments! NO LOAN FORGIVENESS paid for by Taxpayers. Go after the indoctrination centers that over charge, extort, bankrupt and defraud students and parents. This is not the taxpayers burden to bear!

    1. Seize the endowments!
      This is very simple
      Frst, reverse the law so college debt can be discharged by bankruptcy.
      Ban all lenders from issuing loans for education.
      Require all colleges to use their endowments to fund loans for education. As a condition to be eligible for govt funds.

      This puts colleges on the hook for the merchantability of the product they sell

  9. “A NPR/Ipsos survey found 82% of respondents believed the government should prioritize making college more affordable over forgiving student loans.”
    Yep.
    No one seems to ever ask why has the cost of college exploded over the years.
    Could it be quarter million dollar salaries to professors with tenure and gold medal status retirement plans?
    Administrators with the same salaries and retirement plans?
    The size of the bureaucracy/administration that is slow to service the students? Saw this with my own children.
    Dorm rooms that look more like the penthouse suite at the Hilton?
    What are they doing with those endowments? Why do they still ask alumi to donate rather then use the endowments?

    And the government should not be prioritize making college more affordable.
    The colleges should be.

  10. When the Prince of Lies, Paul Begala, thinks Biden engaged in “bad politics”, you know they are in trouble.

    https://news.yahoo.com/former-clinton-adviser-says-bidens-163713381.html

    “Former Clinton adviser Paul Begala said Sunday that President Biden’s student loan debt handout was “bad politics” and “terrible policy.” ”

    Then there are the honest types calling pandering when it occurs

    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/iowa-view/2022/08/28/student-debt-forgiveness-joe-biden-goal-buy-off-voters/7894365001/

    “With student loan forgiveness, Biden’s belief on elections appears to be ‘if you can’t win them, buy them’”

  11. Real fiscal-conservatives may want to listen to a real fiscal-conservative, former Republican Senator Alan Simpson, in the 2013 film “Inequality for All”. Simpson noted his fiscally-conservative stance has never changed, his Republican Party changed.

    The film notes that Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower had a top tax rate of 91% and LBJ had a top tax rate of 70%. Warren Buffet is also in the film. Buffet noted that his secretary (and most Americans) pays a higher tax rate than he did.

    Apparently in 2022, the richest 1% of richest billionaires pay a tax rate of about 11%. Most people reading this are paying about a 33% tax rate. This is worse than the libertarian “Flat Tax” idea, the is actually a regressive system where the working class pay higher tax rates than the richest 1%.

    The film also points out the national security threats from obscene income inequality, that the FBI, DOJ and DHS should be paying attention to.

    Real fiscal-conservatives may want to watch this film!

    1. This is why I have always favored scrapping the entire idea of a tax on either income or investment gains in favor of a national sales tax exempting necessities like food and medical supplies. The more expensive the item you buy is, the more tax you remit, and the best part is you pay at the point of sale; no forms to fill out, no deductions, rebates, or credits needed. Everyone pays, everyone contributes, everyone participates.

      The best part of all is government no longer has to power to redistribute, or the ability to shape behavior through the tax code.

    2. And why do so many “rich people” and corporations pay such low tax rates? Mostly it is because they are directing their money to investments for which tax laws provide deduction incentives. Our elected representatives create the tax laws, and they put these incentives into the tax law because they want to encourage such behavior. They have determined that such investments (like hiring more people) are better for society than having the money paid as taxes to the government. The discussion around this topic needs to be expanded. It is not just about how much more can we get “rich people” and corporations to pay in taxes, but rather what will be the net impact of taking away the deduction incentives that encourage investments that are good for our society? Given the well-documented inefficiencies of our government, I suspect it will be a rather large net negative to have them paying more taxes to our government.

    3. I watched the documentary Inequality For All a few years ago.

      What Robert Reich failed to mention was in order to get manufacturing base back to America and all those jobs that go along with it, would be tariffs on imports and government subsidies to make American made goods as affordable as imports.
      In short, I am paying taxes to buy a something my taxes went to make.
      We are facing the same problem with the green energy. Biden eliminated the tariffs on Chinese solar panels. What sense did that make?
      Then with the IRA, is giving subsidies and incentives to domestic solar production. I seem to recall a previous effort by the Obama admin that failed spectacularly.
      Even prior to the IRA passing, preferences and tax breaks given to solar and wind have pushed traditional power plants to the point they are no long affordable to run. Sounds great right?
      Expect solar and wind cannot meet the production levels of those traditional power plants and not by any small margin. What does that mean? Most costly power bills for Americans, and even blackouts.

    4. “a tax rate of about 11%.” “a 33% tax rate.”

      Anybody notice the con game that focuses on tax *rates*?

  12. Not only the congress obsolescence the great weakening of the representative form of government. They love it when they agree with the policies, only complain when it works against them but do nothing. It is a constant march to irrelevance of the will of the people.

  13. You and the Republicans didn’t bat a eyelash when Trump gave billions to billionaires and corporations! (Second private planes anyone!) It’s time to actually help people lead better lives that feed the corporations and billionaires many of whom don’t even pay taxes!

    1. You and the Republicans didn’t bat a eyelash when Trump gave billions to billionaires and corporations!

      All spending must originate in the House of of Representatives. So exactly what legislative bill “spent” this trillion $’S

      Leftist can only hope to confuse the masses with their lies

      Even Pelosi stated the President could not do this constitutionally. Though late this week the constitution must have been ammendended because now Pelosi is cool with it.

    2. You’re just parroting another left-wing lie how President Trump gave billions to billionaires and corporations. Not only me but millions of other Americans receive more income tax refund back because of him, more than any other past president. The bottom line is you hate America the way it is meant to be. A republic that is based upon the constitution. You despise everything about the way the founders set up the country. You’re nothing but a traitor to our nation.

    3. Under Obama, he took money out of my pocket via the so-called ACA.
      Under Trump, he put money into my pocket with his Jobs act.
      He also took money out of a friends pocket, as she was in that upper tax bracket, had no dependents or tax shelter.
      That worked as it was supposed to.
      As Trump noted, more than a few of his billionaire friends were none to happy with him.

      As for those corporations you mention not paying taxes, like Google, they find loop holes in the system that both parties ignore or wont close. Just ask Nacy Pelosi who’s husband makes interesting stock buys and trades prior to given legislation, or Nancy would not allow a bill barring members of Congress or their families from what is essentially insider trading.

  14. And yet they still continue to vote for the National Socialist Democrat Party.

    Is The History of the Decline and the Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibson or 1984 by George Orwell even read today? They both were required reading in Junior High.

  15. is a dangerous and unconstitutional violation of our system of the separation of powers. Those Democrats applauding this plan in Congress are celebrating their own institutional obsolescence. unconstitutional system of power.

    Prove me wrong.

  16. Adding together the 35 percent of people who think the loan cancellation is just right and the 30 percent of people who think it is not enough – that Addis up to 65 percent of people who do not think Biden did too much here.

    Yet Turley argues this is dividing the nation. Heck – when 65 percent of the country agrees on anything these days; it shows something we should be doing.

    Congress rarely passes anything because of the filibuster; but really they should have passed this. Biden does stuff in the executive branch because the filibuster as practiced by McConnell and company has made Congress unworkable.

    1. I don’t care if 100% agree, if it’s Unconstitutional you can’t do it. The whole point of the Constitution is to prevent government doing things based on simple mob rule or popularity.

  17. Mr. Turley: I enjoy your columns. You bring a thoughtful perspective to contentious issues.
    In reading your work, though, I’ve noticed editing problems, such as in this piece about the cost of President Biden’s debt forgiveness plan.
    Initially you cite a cost of $300 billion. That is followed by a statement that the estimated cost “went up” to $500 million.
    As a former newspaper reporter and editor, I tend to notice such oversights. I bring them to your attention not to find fault but to help improve your already outstanding work.

  18. A trillion here, a trillion there. Is there enough money in the world that the Politicians WON’T spend to get reelected??

  19. It has been well documented that this administration is lawless and has no respect for the Constitution. From weaponizing agencies like the FBI and IRS, to inserting racially discriminating funding into budget bills, the Biden administration has crossed too many lines. But the WH simply reflects the larger agenda of the entire Democratic party. We don’t need anymore op eds in the NY Times calling for an end to the Constitution to be convinced of the “insurrection” at the top of the Democratic party agenda.

Comments are closed.

Res ipsa loquitur – The thing itself speaks

Discover more from JONATHAN TURLEY

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading